© YONHAP News

South Korean President Moon Jae-in is visiting China on Monday and will stay for two days to attend a summit among South Korea, China and Japan in Chengdu in Sichuan Province. Here’s Professor Kim Gwang-seok from Hanyang University Graduate School of International Studies to discuss the main agenda and implications of the trilateral summit. 

During the summit, South Korea, China and Japan will discuss ways to promote their economic cooperation. Other major pending issues include the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership or RCEP, which is a mega free trade agreement, relations between South and North Korea, the reestablishment of North Korea-U.S. ties, the deployment of a U.S. anti-missile system in South Korea and the ongoing negotiations toward a Korea-China-Japan FTA. Results from the three-way summit will greatly influence the regional economy and possibly the global economy as well. In this sense, I think the upcoming summit carries great significance. 

South Korea, China and Japan held their first summit in 1999 on the sidelines of the ASEAN plus three meeting. The three-way summit has taken place as a separate meeting since 2008. However, it has been held only twice thus far because the three countries have been mired in bitter historical, territorial and political conflict. 

This week, apart from the trilateral summit, President Moon has held separate talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping and will hold a bilateral meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The South Korea-China summit, in particular, is expected to help resolve some thorny issues amid deepening conflict between North Korea and the U.S. 

After South Korea decided to install a U.S. missile shield called the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense or THAAD system on its soil in 2016, China took retaliatory measures against South Korea by imposing a ban on hallyu content. Hallyu refers to the global popularity of Korean pop culture. South Korea and China may discuss Beijing’s lift of this hallyu ban, as it is an important issue in normalizing their ties. Discussion topics also include China’s Belt and Road Initiative and South Korea’s New Southern Policy, both of which seek to strengthen engagement with the Southeast Asian region. They could also discuss how to persuade India to join the RCEP. Last but not least, they will touch on North Korea-U.S. relations and discuss how to narrow their views on Washington’s possible deployment of intermediate-range missiles in South Korea. 

North Korea-related issues were at the top of the agenda during Moon’s meeting with Xi on Monday morning and his meeting with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang in the afternoon. Having reached a phase-one trade deal with the U.S., China may exert influence over North Korea to pave the way for dialogue between Pyongyang and Washington. If that happens, South Korea will be able to reduce geopolitical risks related to North Korea—the downside, risks to its economy. 

In addition, South Korea and China were expected to discuss the connection of the former’s New Southern Policy with the latter’s Belt and Road Initiative as well as the final conclusion of the RCEP, the world’s largest mega FTA joined by South Korea, China and Japan. More urgently, Korea wants China to remove its ban on hallyu content. 

China restricted Korean cultural content in retaliation for the THAAD deployment in South Korea. It is highly important for Korea to get this hallyu ban lifted. After Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s recent visit to South Korea, the Beijing government reinstated South Korean battery makers on its list of companies eligible for subsides for electric vehicle batteries. China has excluded them from the list in recent years to promote the local battery industry. Apparently, China has somewhat eased its economic retaliation against South Korea. This is welcome news, of course. But China has yet to lift the hallyu ban completely. For South Korea, the best-case scenario is that China decides to end the ban entirely during the summit this week. 

Affected by the THAAD row, the number of Chinese tourists to South Korea dwindled to 4.17 million in 2017, down 48 percent from the previous year. Bilateral relations have not been fully restored yet, although they have shown signs of a thaw since the inauguration of the Moon Jae-in government. This week’s summit could help patch up Beijing-Seoul relations, leading to China’s withdrawal from its ban on hallyu. Moon’s meeting with Abe, scheduled for Tuesday, is also drawing much attention. 

South Korea and Japan had maintained an important partnership in the global market. Unfortunately, this partnership has weakened considerably. The South Korea-Japan summit is expected to discuss ways to ease their trade conflict so the two countries will not cross the line of no return in economic and security areas. I imagine that Moon and Abe will reexamine Japan’s export curbs on Korea, discuss Seoul’s decision to delay the termination of its military intelligence-sharing deal with Japan and seek ways to resolve the thorny issue of the Korean Supreme Court’s rulings that ordered Japanese companies to compensate Korean victims of forced labor during the Japanese colonial rule of Korea. These will be the major discussion topics during the Moon-Abe summit. 

During the bilateral summit between Moon and Abe—the first such meeting in 15 months—they are expected to discuss how to settle ongoing disputes over Japan’s export controls against Korea, the bilateral intelligence-sharing pact known as the General Security of Military Information Agreement or GSOMIA and the forced labor issue. If they manage to produce some positive results at their summit this week, Seoul-Tokyo relations could be restored to the level that it was prior to July of this year, when Japan imposed export curbs on Korea. 

Meanwhile, business leaders from South Korea, China and Japan will gather round on the sidelines of the trilateral summit. 

A number of business leaders from the three countries will attend the so-called “business summit.” From South Korea, an economic delegation of about 100 businesspeople including major corporate chiefs and heads of economic organizations accompanied President Moon to China. They will reportedly hold a business summit with their Chinese and Japanese counterparts to share opinions about how to boost three-way economic collaboration, stimulate investment and strengthen global supply chains. 

The South Korea-China-Japan summit will serve as an important venue where the three countries are to discuss greater economic cooperation. The results of the summit are expected to have a major impact on the Northeast Asian economy and regional development.