Diplomatic tension has been escalating on the Korean Peninsula, since an investigation team concluded that the South Korean navy patrol ship Cheonan was sunk by a North Korean torpedo attack. May 24, 2010, will be recorded as a watershed date in the history of inter-Korean relations, as President Lee Myung-bak announced strong countermeasures against North Korea during his special address to the nation on that day. In the statement, Lee defined the Cheonan disaster as North Korea’s military provocation against the Republic of Korea. Lee also said South Korea would no longer tolerate North Korea’s provocations and called for the North to offer an apology and punish those involved in the Cheonan sinking. In addition, Lee declared a suspension of inter-Korean trade and exchanges. Guest professor Jang Yong-seok at SungKongHoe University explains that Seoul’s North Korea policy over the last ten years has reached a historic turning point in the wake of the Cheonan incident.

In terms of the timing, the president’s announcement has various implications. Most importantly, President Lee expressed his willingness to take stern measures against North Korea. Also notably, Lee is urging North Korea to change, pointing out that the reclusive North is the only country in the world that remains unchanged. As the statement indicates, all the existing inter-Korean cooperation projects will, in effect, be put on hold. It seems South and North Korea are heading for an extreme confrontation, with Seoul’s North Korea policy and overall inter-Korean relations taking a new turn.

President Lee vowed to build a national security posture that would preemptively control North Korea’s additional provocations and other threatening acts, while changing the South Korean military posture from passive defense to proactive deterrence. Most of all, many are paying attention to Lee’s remarks that if South Korean territorial waters, airspace or territory are violated, the South will immediately exercise its right of self-defense.

The right to self-defense is recognized by Article 51 of the U.N. Charter. The concept is based on the notion that a state should be allowed to respond to an imminent or present attack. The article states that nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defense if an armed attack occurs against a member of the U.N. until the Security Council has taken measures necessary to maintain international peace and security. But this should not be interpreted as the recognition of a preemptive attack. President Lee attaches a condition, “if our territorial waters, airspace or territory are militarily violated,” so he rules out the possibility of a preemptive attack. The Cheonan case has already been closed, and I don’t think the right of self-defense is applied to this case, even if North Korea is clearly to blame.

On the same day, heads of Defense, Foreign Affairs and Unification Ministries announced follow-up measures to respond to the Cheonan incident. For example, the Defense Ministry has resumed FM radio broadcasts aimed at North Korea and also restarted sending propaganda leaflets to the North. These activities were suspended in 2004. Also, the military has decided to re-operate loudspeakers installed along the Military Demarcation Line to disseminate propaganda messages north of the border. Also, no North Korean ship will be allowed to travel through any of the shipping lanes in the waters under South Korean control, which had been allowed previously under the Inter-Korean Agreement on Maritime Transportation. In addition, South Korea will conduct joint anti-submarine drills in the West Sea with the United States and carry out maritime intercept exercises to prevent North Korea’s nuclear proliferation. The Foreign Ministry, in the meantime, has decided to refer the Cheonan case to the U.N. Security Council, based on international support. But diplomatic experts note that China, a staunch ally of North Korea, holds the key to the solution of the problem.

On May 20, when South Korea announced the result of the investigation into the Cheonan incident, Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokesman said that Moscow did not have any clear evidence proving the cause of the ship sinking. The comment suggests that Russia doesn’t really accept the explanations that Seoul had given it. Similarly, China says it will proceed with its own evaluation on the exact cause of the sinking, reflecting that Beijing doesn’t completely accept South Korea’s investigation result. The attitudes of China and Russia, both of which are the permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, are very important in future discussions of the council. It won’t be easy for China, in particular, to approve a resolution calling for additional sanctions on North Korea. I imagine a toned-down presidential statement instead.

Meanwhile, North Korea’s Committee for Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland, the mouthpiece of the North’s ruling Workers’ Party, said on May 25 that it would regard Seoul’s countermeasures against the North over the sinking of the warship as a declaration of a war. The committee spokesman said the North would cut all relations with South Korea and there would be no dialogue or contact between the governments during the remaining tenure of President Lee Myung-bak. The North also pledged to freeze and close the Consultative Office for South-North Economic Cooperation in the Gaeseong Industrial Complex and to expel all South Korean staff from the joint industrial zone. Prior to that, North Korea warned that it would shoot down South Korean loudspeakers if the South actually resumes propaganda broadcasts for psychological warfare. Professor Jang analyzes the North’s angry response.

North Korea is expected to attempt to plead its innocence to avoid risks from the ship sinking incident. In this respect, the North is being very aggressive in pursuing a defense strategy. Domestically, the communist state needs to establish political stability to build a firm basis for power succession and to secure resources needed for its economic growth. North Korea and China are engaging in in-depth discussions about bilateral cooperation. At this crucial time, Pyongyang is concerned that its ongoing efforts toward these goals may hit a snag due to the Cheonan incident. For fear of this, the North is addressing the situation aggressively.

Involved countries, such as the United States and Japan, are moving fast following the sinking of the South Korean corvette. U.S. President Barack Obama instructed his military commanders to closely cooperate with South Korea to deter future aggression from North Korea and ordered government officials to review Washington’s policies on Pyongyang. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who visited Seoul Wednesday, May 26, urged North Korea to halt its provocations in regards to the North’s sinking of the Cheonan. She said Washington supports South Korea’s decision to bring the Cheonan case to the U.N. Security Council. Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama has convened an emergency security meeting and ordered officials to examine ways to slap its own additional sanctions on North Korea. With the international community seeking stronger punitive measures against the North, tension is mounting on the Korean Peninsula. Experts agree that inter-Korean relations will inevitably undergo a cold spell for the time being.

As expected, inter-Korean ties will come to a complete halt, and the standoff will continue for some time. It will take a considerable amount of time before the two sides return to a reconciliatory phase. But we have to watch how dialogue between China and the U.S. unfolds. Both countries stress the importance of reconvening the six-party nuclear talks. If their consultation proceeds well and if the resumption of the multilateral negotiations takes shape, it may help ease tension on the Korean Peninsula to enable South and North Korea to put together a favorable mood for dialogue. But such a consultation would be possible only after the U.N. Security Council settles the Cheonan row.

The prospects for inter-Korean relations are caught up in dense fog—so dense that nothing can be seen even an inch ahead. Both South and North Korea must make a rational decision in order to put an end to their ongoing confrontation and bring peace and stability to their divided peninsula.


Seoul’s Economic Measures against N. Korea

Since the government’s announcement detailing punitive measure aimed at the North, inter-Korean relations have been deteriorating rapidly, while North Korea has faced stronger pressure. According to experts, North Korea will be most disturbed by the suspension of inter-Korean economic cooperation, which will cut the purse strings for the cash-starved North. The Seoul government has decided to suspend all inter-Korean trade, except the Gaeseong Industrial Park business. Visits to North Korea by South Korean nationals will be banned, while all the North Korean aid projects, other than those for infants and children, will be delayed. This means a halt to inter-Korean exchanges implemented by government agencies with an annual budget of 5.5 million dollars. These can be interpreted as “painful” measures targeting North Korea that the government has pledged to execute to respond to the Cheonan naval incident. Here’s Dr. Dong Yong-seung from the Samsung Economic Research Institute to explain.

The government’s punitive measures for North Korea are unprecedentedly resolute, since South and North Korea officially started economic and personnel exchanges under the July 7th Declaration in 1988. From the viewpoint of North Korea, economic exchanges with the South account for a significant portion in its economy. The suspension of all joint economic programs, except the Gaeseong industrial park, will, no doubt, put great economic pressure on Pyongyang.

The suspension of inter-Korean trade will definitely deal a serious blow to North Korea, which depends on South Korea for nearly 40 percent of its total trade. The government estimates the set of measures may inflict up to 300 million dollars worth of losses on the North. Also, about 40-thousand North Koreans may lose their jobs. With the suspension of joint programs pushed by South Korean private groups, the negative impact on the North Korean economy will be even more serious. Meanwhile, the Gaeseong industrial park, the symbol of inter-Korean economic cooperation, stands at a critical crossroads. While the government will allow operations at the joint industrial complex to continue, the number of South Koreans staying there will be reduced. Mr. Dong predicts the authorities of the two Koreas may use the industrial complex to gain the upper hand in their fierce tug-of-war in the future.

Apart from the unique and symbolic characteristics of the Gaeseong project, South Korea has invested a lot in the industrial park and a large number of North Korean laborers are working there to earn their living. South Korea doesn’t mean to cut off inter-Korean ties altogether, so it tries to keep the venture business going, while demanding an apology and punishment of the people involved in the Cheonan incident. For now, it seems both sides are committed to maintaining their joint industrial park project. However, South Korea may take a stern attitude when the North takes any actions to affect the business project negatively.