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On May 31, North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency carried an article with the title of “What is the purpose of the termination of missile guidelines?” Under the name of international affairs critic Kim Myong-chol, the article criticized the U.S. for lifting restrictions on South Korean missiles, calling it a deliberate and hostile act. South Korea and the U.S. agreed to end their missile guidelines during their bilateral summit in May. The article slammed the U.S. for talking about dialogue while stoking confrontation in its action. It also used strident rhetoric in its criticism of South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s remarks at the joint press conference after the summit. Analysts note that the article is not an official statement from the North Korean authorities. Here is Professor Park Won-gon from the North Korean Studies Department at Ewha Womans University to explain. 

Unlike important statements issued by high officials like North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s sister Kim Yo-jong or First Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui, this article was released under the name of an individual. It reflects that North Korea is adjusting the level of criticism. 

Regarding the Biden government’s North Korea policy characterized by a “pragmatic approach” and “maximum flexibility,” the article calls it “just trickery.” Through consistent pressure against the U.S., the North seems to be inducing the U.S. to work on more details about their nuclear negotiations. 

Various agreements were made during the recent South Korea-U.S. summit, but North Korea took issue with the missile guidelines part, in particular. It argued that the U.S. brands North Korea’s defensive measures as violations of U.N. resolutions, but it grants its followers the right to pursue unlimited missile development. The North called it Washington’s shameful double-dealing. Why is the North so upset about the termination of the missile guidelines? 

Before South Korea and the U.S. discussed the North Korean human rights issue at their recent summit, White House policy coordinator for the Indo-Pacific Kurt Campbell said that the U.S. would continue to enforce sanctions on North Korea. 

But North Korea did not mention these matters and only criticized the lifting of the missile guidelines. By questioning why South Korea is allowed to develop missiles, while North Korea’s missile development is subject to sanctions, the North is justifying its own missile program. During the Workers’ Party congress in January this year, leader Kim Jong-un instructed officials to develop tactical nuclear weapons. The North is using the missile guidelines issue in order to continue to test-fire its own missiles. 

South Korea and the U.S. signed the missile guidelines back in 1979. The guidelines place restrictions on the flight range and payload weight of South Korean missiles. They have since been revised four times, with the latest revision extending the missile range to 800 kilometers, in the face of a growing nuclear and missile threat from North Korea. 

Now that all the restrictions have been scrapped, as agreed upon at the South Korea-U.S. summit in May, South Korea has regained “missile sovereignty” after 42 years. It can now independently develop mid-range ballistic missiles with a range of over 1,000 kilometers, putting all of Northeast Asia within range. Considering that North Korea is developing an intercontinental ballistic missile, the termination of decades-old restrictions on South Korean missiles will further improve South Korea’s military capabilities against the North. 

South Korea’s ballistic missile known as the Hyunmoo-4 can carry a payload as heavy as 2 tons to ranges of up to 800 kilometers. It is four times larger than the payload of typical ballistic missiles at 500 kilograms. If the Hyunmoo-4 carries a regular payload, it can fly over 2,000 kilometers. 

North Korea is developing missiles capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. The tactical nuclear missiles Kim Jong-un mentioned during the party congress in January put South Korea within range. This is a serious threat to South Korea. To cope with the ever-increasing nuclear and missile threat from the North, South Korea needs to boost its missile capabilities to the maximum, although it does not have nuclear weapons. 

Regarding the agreement to end the missile guidelines, it is believed that U.S. and South Korean interests coincide. The U.S. seeks to build a missile network in East Asia to keep China in check, while South Korea hopes to achieve self-defense. 

Meanwhile, Chinese media pointed out that China should be wary of the termination of all restrictions on South Korean missiles. Chinese ambassador to South Korea Xing Haiming said that the missile guidelines were a bilateral matter between Seoul and Washington. Still, he said that China would not sit idle if it does damage to China’s national interest. Clearly, China is unhappy about the latest development. 

The lifting of restrictions on the flight range of South Korean missiles is meant to cope with North Korea’s military threat and also hold neighboring countries, including China, in check. China does not like the termination of the missile guidelines, but it stops short of mentioning it at the governmental level. 

The recent North Korean article said that the end of the missile guidelines could be a threat to neighboring countries, apparently protesting against the move on behalf of China. By reflecting on China’s position in its article, North Korea shows that it sides with its communist ally. 

Attention turns to how North Korea’s current attitude may influence the resumption of North Korea-U.S. dialogue. Pyongyang did leave the door open for talks with Washington, but it expressed outright displeasure with the U.S. For that reason, analysts predict that the North will not pursue dialogue right now but will watch the situation for the time being. 

U.S. Secretary of State Tony Blinken talked about the Biden administration’s North Korea policy review in a recent press conference. He focused on diplomacy, without mentioning sanctions or the human rights issue, which may disturb North Korea. The U.S. also underlined “maximum flexibility.” But the North blasted the U.S., as seen in its recent article. North Korea is likely to stall for now to see Washington’s next move, at least for military purposes of developing tactical nuclear weapons. 

The COVID-19 pandemic is another key factor. It is assumed that the North Korean economy will get back to normal at the end of next year at the earliest. Negotiations with the U.S., even if they may take place, will not lead to economic results any time soon. For these reasons, it might be more advantageous for North Korea to buy some time, as long as it can subsist internally.

Some analysts say that North Korea may step up its criticism of the U.S., depending on developments in regional diplomacy, including the South Korea-U.S. combined military drills. We’ll have to wait and see how the North may act down the road.