A local think tank projects that if China fails to maintain six percent economic growth due to a protracted trade war with the U.S., this will also drag down South Korea's growth rate to the lower two percent range.
Ju Won, a senior researcher at the Hyundai Research Institute, gave this prediction during a policy seminar on Tuesday.
Speaking on the topic of U.S.-China trade negotiations and the Korean economy, the researcher said that even if trade tensions are resolved and U.S. imports into China surge as a possible result, this could hurt Korean exports to China as Korean steel, machinery, IT goods and automobiles will have to compete against the U.S. in the Chinese market.
In the scenario the trade conflict continues for a considerable period, Ju said South Korea will remain relatively unaffected if the friction mainly impacts trade.
But he said if Beijing stands up against Washington using other tools such as currency rates and taxes, Chinese exporters will accordingly adjust their investment decisions which can deal a blow to Korean exports of capital goods to China.