A North Korea-monitoring group says that the regime’s continued missile provocations may lead South Korea or Japan to seek nuclear armament.

38 North presented the assessment in a report posted on Thursday, noting that North Korea has launched 43 missiles this year through October 6, including 41 ballistic missiles.

The U.S.-based website said that these launches will have security implications for South Korea, the U.S. and Japan, including the possibility that Seoul and Tokyo may perceive the U.S.’ nuclear umbrella as insufficient.

The report said that the resumption of intermediate-range and intercontinental ballistic missile testing underscores the threat posed by North Korea’s capability to deliver nuclear warheads to Guam, Hawaii and North America.

The website assessed that as the threat to the U.S. homeland increases, the North could perceive that it has increased freedom of action, while the loss of faith in the U.S.’ nuclear deterrence by Seoul and Tokyo may lead them to pursue independent nuclear capabilities.