U.S. experts warned that the situation on the Korean Peninsula is as dangerous as it was just before the outbreak of the 1950-1953 Korean War and that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's frequent talk of "war" might be more than bluster.
In a piece in North Korean news and analysis website 38 North, Middlebury Institute of International Studies scholars Robert Carlin and Siegfried Hecker said the situation on the Korean Peninsula was more dangerous than at any time since early June of 1950, just before the war.
They also said they believe Kim has made a strategic decision to go to war, just like his grandfather did in 1950.
The two scholars said they do not know when Kim will pull the trigger, but noted that the current threat goes beyond South Korean, U.S. and Japanese warnings of "provocations" and that the messages of war preparations appearing in North Korea's state media since the start of the year are not the regime's typical bluster.
The primary reason is that Kim, disappointed by the rupture of the U.S.-North Korea summit in Hanoi in February 2019, has completely abandoned hope of normalizing relations with the United States – a goal of three generations of North Korean leaders – and decided to go to war, they said.
They also said North Korea may believe that with the favorable global environment amid stronger cooperation with China and Russia, the opportunity and time has arrived to pursue a military solution on the Korean Peninsula.
They also warned that while South Korea and the United States believe they can deter the North with frequent warnings that an attack will result in the destruction of the North Korean regime, that thinking could prove fatal in the current climate.