A new government estimate projects South Korea could face a shortage of up to eleven‑thousand doctors by 2040.

The Committee for Health Workforce Projections unveiled its latest long‑term forecast on Tuesday during a briefing at the government complex in Seoul.

The committee, an independent deliberative body under the Ministry of Health and Welfare, was established to regularly conduct mid‑ to long‑term projections of doctor supply and demand.

Based on its baseline model, the committee estimated that by 2035, demand for doctors will range between 135‑thousand‑938 and 138‑thousand‑206, while supply is expected to reach between 133‑thousand‑283 and 134‑thousand‑403. That would leave a shortfall of roughly one‑thousand‑535 to four‑thousand‑923 physicians.

By 2040, the projected shortage widens to between five‑thousand‑704 and eleven‑thousand‑136 doctors.

The findings will be submitted to the Health and Medical Services Policy Deliberation Committee, which is set to meet next month to review medical school enrollment quotas.