The Korean Medical Association(KMA) estimates that the nation could see an oversupply of up to 18-thousand doctors by 2040.

The country’s largest doctors’ group disclosed the assessment Tuesday during a seminar that it hosted jointly with the Korean Society for Preventive Medicine and the Korean Association for Policy Studies in Seoul.

The KMA’s projection runs contrary to a government forecast under which South Korea could face a shortage of up to eleven‑thousand doctors by 2040.

Late last month, the committee for health workforce projections announced that by 2040, the shortage will likely total between five‑thousand‑704 and eleven‑thousand‑136 doctors.

The committee, an independent body under the health ministry that was established to regularly conduct mid‑ to long‑term projections of doctor supply and demand, rebutted the KMA’s figure in a statement. 

It said its own estimate for 2040 represents the best possible outcome based on observable data at the present time.