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'Unification Could Cost 670 Bln Dollars'

Written: 2005-06-06 18:38:39Updated: 0000-00-00 00:00:00

A new report estimates that unification of the two Koreas could cost anywhere from 50 billion to 670 billion dollars.

Titled “North Korean Paradoxes: Circumstances, Costs, and Consequences of Korean Unification,” the study was drafted by nonprofit research organization RAND Corporation and was prepared for the office of the Secretary of Defense.

The report came up with the estimate after considering three scenarios through which unification might occur, including unification through 'system evolution and integration' unification through 'collapse and absorption' and unification through conflict.

According to the study, the bulk of reunification costs would come from incremental capital requirements for doubling North Korea's GDP in a four-or-five year period.

The report also said that reunification would incur larger cost burdens than the case of Germany since income levels are much lower and the relative populations of the two Koreas are much larger than in the case of East and West Germany.

The study is drawing attention as it comes after the defense ministers of South Korea and the United States agreed to develop a CONPLAN 5029 against contingencies on the Korean Peninsula.

The CONPLAN 5029 is designed to counter any contingency on the Peninsula stemming from an unexpected exodus of North Korean residents or turmoil in the Pyongyang regime.

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