A domestic defense think tank says it is likely North Korea will conduct a third nuclear test and will attempt to spark small-scale provocations.

In its analysis of the 2009 South Korean defense budget, the Korea Institute for Defense Analysis (KIDA) said Friday that North Korea is unlikely to forgo its goal to gain status as a nuclear power. The institute said it is highly likely the North will conduct a third nuclear test in order to make it clear that it has nuclear capabilities.

In addition, the think tank emphasized that the communist regime would set as its ultimate goal the deployment of improved intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) mounted with nuclear warheads.

The institute cited an attack on Baengnyeong Island, land skirmishes in the demilitarized zone on the North-South border, and aerial combat as other possible small-scale conflict scenarios North Korea might pursue.