A South Korean state-run think tank says North Korea could conduct a third nuclear test next year.

The Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security said in its outlook for 2011 that North Korea will likely attempt to bolster its nuclear program in the coming year.

The institute said that considering the North’s recent belligerence in foreign affairs, it is possible the North could pursue a third nuclear test to improve the performance of its plutonium-based nuclear weapons.

The think tank said that North Korea has, in the past, tended to use its nuclear program as a bargaining chip to improve bilateral relations with the U.S. but that recently Pyongyang appears to be viewing its nuclear armament as a key survival strategy in the post-Cold War period.

The institute also said that the North’s sinking of South Korea’s “Cheonan” naval vessel in March and its artillery attack on the South’s Yeonpyeong Island in November will make it difficult to resume the stalled six-party denuclearization talks or U.S.-North Korea talks any time soon.

The think tank predicted that strengthening the power succession to heir apparent Kim Jong-un will be the most important task for Pyongyang in 2011. Accordingly, the institute said that North Korea will use its nuclear program and the six-party talks as leverage to get past the sanctions placed on the impoverished nation and to get direct talks with the U.S.