There are less than 100 days left before April 15th, which North Korea designated as the day for proclaiming the start of their so-called strong and prosperous country. Many are wondering whether the communist country will be able to fulfill the ambitious goal under its new Kim Jong-un leadership after the death of former leader Kim Jong-il. When the late Kim was appointed the Chairman of the National Defense Commission in 1998, North Korea set the goal of ushering in a strong and prosperous country in 2012. The political slogan of “a strong and prosperous country” has since been highlighted in North Korea’s New Year’s messages, with the nation seeking to build a political power, a military power and an economic power. Here’s Cho Bong-hyeon at the Industrial Bank of Korea Economic Research Institute to explain.

North Korea pegged 2012 as the year of widely opening the door for a strong and prosperous country, which it claims will be so powerful that the outside world will not dare to shake it, but rather will respect it. For that purpose, the North has openly vowed to become a political and economic power. 2012 marks the centennial of the birth of North Korean founder Kim Il-sung and the 70th anniversary of the birth of his son and former leader Kim Jong-il. Also, North Korea apparently set 2012 as the first year of a third-generation power succession to Kim Jong-un. This year, North Korea aims to pursue internal unity and demonstrate its prominence as a strong and powerful country domestically and internationally.

With that goal in mind, North Korea has pushed for various projects. It has renovated houses and buildings and repaired roads in provincial areas as well as in the capital city of Pyongyang. The nation is also reportedly constructing power stations to ease electricity shortages and carrying out a fish farm project to resolve its chronic food shortages. North Korea watchers predict that the most notable economic achievement in the first year of a strong and prosperous country will be the project of remodeling Pyongyang, which could produce visible results through short-term, intensive mobilization of resources.

North Korea has made strenuous efforts to produce tangible results in the economic area. Modernizing houses and buildings in Pyongyang, the nation’s central zone, is one of the effective ways to show off economic achievements. So, North Korea is remodeling old buildings in Pyongyang and creating a new town in the outskirts of the capital. In addition, large buildings, including a department store, have been set up in Pyongyang to demonstrate that the capital city is full of vitality and is spurring economic development.

In a symbolic move, North Korea also places great emphasis on three legacies advocated by former leader Kim Jong-il, including the “Industrial Revolution in a New Century.” The term “CNC” refering to computer numerical control technology, information technology and biotechnology have been touted as representative achievements of the late leader, and those terms appear in the North Korean media almost every day. In the same context, North Korea is noticeably stressing a knowledge-based economy. How extensively will these efforts influence the nation’s goal of building a strong and prosperous country?

North Korea is confident that it has become a political and military power in some way, citing its nuclear tests and military provocations against the outside world. But it is far from easy to make economic achievements that can be truly felt by ordinary citizens. North Korea is showing off some achievements in Pyongyang with a limited amount of resources, but it could create a vicious circle leading to further impoverishment in the overall economy. That is, provincial areas are becoming worse off and the income gap between different classes is widening, giving rise to social conflict. North Korea is attempting to become an economic power quickly under the current Kim Jong-un regime, but their hasty efforts could backfire.

Experts agree that the situation in North Korea hasn’t improved much and side effects are only deepening, contrary to the initial expectations of the North Korean authorities. According to the World Food Program, food rations per head in North Korea slightly increased in January this year but are still short of the recommended daily requirements set by the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization. This indicates that food shortages still continue in the impoverished North and the nation also suffers from power shortages due to the slow construction of power plants. Prices have been soaring as seen in the price of one kilogram of rice, which is equivalent to one-month of salary for middle-class citizens. Apparently taking the current situation into consideration, North Korea used toned-down slogans, such as “a strong country,” instead of “a strong and prosperous country” in its New Year’s editorial this year. Still, it is accelerating economic development by stressing new slogans like “Flames of South Hamgyeong Province.”

North Korea has coined a number of new slogans to tackle economic difficulties. The slogan “Flames of South Hamgyeong Province,” for example, was created after former leader Kim Jong-il noted that many factories and companies in the province had exceeded their initial targets. Kim stressed the need to follow suit in order to develop the industry. The phrase has now become a symbolic slogan representing a better-than-expected economic result achieved in a short period of time.

To find a way out of the worsening economic situation, North Korea is actively trying to attract foreign investment and stepping up economic cooperation with China. Last year, the two communist allies held a groundbreaking ceremony on an island located at the western end of their border to create a joint economic zone. North Korea’s trade with China is estimated to reach 6 billion US dollars in 2011, a whopping 70 percent increase from the previous year, reflecting Pyongyang’s deepening economic dependence on Beijing. But cooperation with China that is based on too much economic dependence on Beijing could deter North Korea from pushing for economic growth and fulfilling their goals for the nation. Noting this, Mr. Cho predicts that Pyongyang may possibly seek economic cooperation with South Korea.

Obviously, North Korea’s old economic policies and previous efforts to attract foreign investment have limitations. Therefore, it’s possible that the North may announce new economic measures. Excessive economic dependence on China could hamper North Korea’s growth, so I imagine Pyongyang will seek to restore economic cooperation with South Korea. In view of stabilizing inter-Korean relations and managing North Korea effectively, Seoul needs some strategies or policies aimed at reviving inter-Korean economic cooperation and inducing the North to restore stability and show a change in its attitude. Most importantly, it’s necessary to draw North Korea to reform and openness and to the international community by means of inter-Korean economic cooperation.

Despite economic difficulties, the North Korean regime is following the will of the deceased leader in an effort to stabilize the Kim Jong-un regime and secure legitimacy of a third-generation power transition. Will North Korea actually become a strong and prosperous country? If so, will it be able to fulfill that goal in a pragmatic way? April 15th will likely serve as the first litmus test gauging the future of the new North Korean leadership.


[Interview] University Club for Students from Both Koreas
A restaurant in Sinchon, which is a bustling university area in western Seoul, is alive with the shouting of young people. They are the members of student group, “Unification Hanmadang,” a Yonsei University-based club organized by South Korean students and their peers who defected from North Korea. Hanmadang is roughly translated as “grand festival.” Let’s meet with Kim Gyeong-il, the club president who majors in Chinese Language and Literature at Yonsei University.

The club was launched in 2003. At the time, student defectors faced many difficulties after entering the university. Professor Jeong Jong-hun recognized the problem and wondered how to help the students from the North. There were only a handful of such students, but the professor encouraged South Korean students to organize a club, together with their North Korean friends. In a sense, the club was a venue where unification was being pursued, though only in a small way. The name, “Unification Hanmadang” holds the wish for bringing people together.

The club now has 50 members. Club activities include promoting friendship among the members and engaging in volunteer work in local communities. In addition, the club members participate in seminars and lectures to ponder the true meaning of unification and seek ways of unifying the two Koreas. They are also carrying out support programs for Yonsei students from North Korea. A tutoring program, among others, is very popular, as South Korean students meet one-on-one with their North Korean peers to help them learn English or other subjects. They also help their peers adjust to an unfamiliar campus life here in South Korea. One club member shares his opinion.

I applied for this program because I wanted to teach a few subjects as a tutor. While teaching my North Korean friend, I talked a lot about myself and so did he. His memories about his hometown aren’t entirely depressing. After unification, I hope to go to his hometown with him and visit the hill at the back of his house that he mentioned while studying with me.

Also, graduate students at Yonsei University and the Seoul region’s Youth Committee of the National Unification Advisory Council recently held a ceremony launching a mentoring program aimed at better understanding student defectors. Here again is club president Kim Gyeong-il.

There are many people who study welfare at Yonsei Graduate School of Public Administration. Some of them became interested in defector students attending the university and wanted to provide some help. They met with our club members from time to time for dinner or other activities. The gatherings developed into a one-on-one mentor-mentee program that started in December last year. Under the program, North Korean mentees learn from their mentors who achieved success in society.

But it is the North Korean students who have changed most noticeably. Many of them found it challenging to attend the university in an unfamiliar environment in the past, but this club provided them with a precious opportunity to rediscover their identity and step closer to new hope. The South Korean students learned a lot from club activities, too. The student group plans to expand exchanges with North Korean students at other universities. Showing hope to one another, the collegians from South and North Korea will hopefully lead a unified Korea in the near future.