A government researcher says North Korea may ramp up its provocations after May, with the launch of a new government in South Korea.
 
Lee Sang-min, researcher at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, made the assessment during a forum on Thursday.
 
Lee noted that North Korea previously heightened the level of strategic provocations with nuclear and ballistic missile tests until late 2017 when it declared itself a nuclear state. He predicted that Pyongyang may repeat such aggression this year, but within a condensed period. 
 
The researcher forecast that North Korea could conduct its seventh nuclear test, involving another intercontinental ballistic missile(ICBM) or a military satellite launch in May or later.
 
If the North pushes ahead with a seventh test, he said it may involve a neutron or a nuclear electromagnetic pulse(EMP) bomb.  
 
A neutron bomb can minimize the destruction of facilities and equipment but maximize human casualties, while a nuclear EMP bomb is non-lethal but can destroy assets and facilities.
 
Lee went on to say that North Korea cannot sustain provocations forever so it may attempt to turn the situation around before or after the U.S. mid-term elections in November or around the U.S. presidential election in late 2024.