A U.S.-based think tank predicts that a “Korean Spring” is unlikely to arrive in North Korea despite the death of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il.

Senior researcher at the Cato Institute, Doug Bandow, dismissed the possibility of a North Korea experiencing a democratic revolution in an article he posted on the institute’s Web site Monday, local time.

He said that some observers hope for a Korean Spring, similar to the recent revolutionary wave of demonstrations for democracy in the Arab world. But he added that the North’s largely rural population is an unlikely vehicle for change and urban elites may want reform, but not revolution.

Bandow said the U.S. can do little more than watch developments in the North. He advised that Washington should maintain its willingness to talk with Pyongyang and engage Beijing over the future of the Korean Peninsula.