In defiance of international pressure, North Korea went ahead with its long-range rocket launch on Wednesday. This raises concerns over serious repercussions on diplomacy surrounding the Korean Peninsula. According to South Korean military authorities, North Korea launched its Eunha-3 long-range rocket from a launch pad in Dongchang-ri, Cholsan County in North Pyongan Province at 9:49 a.m. on Wednesday. The first-stage booster is known to have fallen in waters 190 kilometers west of Byeonsan Peninsula, and the fairing is believed to have come down in waters 120 kilometers west of Jeju Island. The second-stage of the rocket fell into waters east of the Philippines. The military says all the three stages were separated as planned, and what the rocket had been carrying entered the orbit eventually. Here’s Dr. Hong Hyun-ik at the Sejong Institute to explain.

Obviously, North Korea’s intention is to develop a long-range missile. If the rocket flew a long way, the test is considered a success. The second-stage is believed to have fallen into waters off the Philippines, as North Korea had indicated before the launch. So the launch was successful in terms of testing a long-range rocket. North Korea claims that it is launching a satellite in light of the peaceful use of space. But I don’t think it is necessary for the North Korean economy. After all, the satellite launch is a test of a long-range missile in disguise.

In fact, the rocket launch went against the international community’s earlier expectations. North Korea said on December 9th that it was considering rescheduling the launch date. The next day, Pyongyang announced that it was extending the launch window until December 29th to fix technical problems in the first-stage of the rocket. And on December 11th, signs showed that North Korea removed the rocket from the launch pad and transported it to a nearby building for repairs. Given the repair period, some predicted that the launch might be delayed. Contrary to expectations, North Korea fired the rocket the following day.

Intelligence authorities both in South Korea and the U.S. were stunned. They may have read satellite information incorrectly. Or, North Korea may have fixed the problems more quickly than had been expected. But we cannot rule out the possibility that the North used disguises. Under the new Xi Jinping leadership, China strongly called for North Korea to refrain from any provocative move. Beijing’s attitude was stronger this time, compared to when North Korea previously attempted to launch a rocket. China recently delivered Pyongyang a significant message, twice, indicating that the North should be careful. Also, the Obama administration in the U.S., and the governments in South Korea and Japan have continued sending a warning message that they would maintain close cooperation and impose tougher sanctions against North Korea if the communist nation pushes ahead with its rocket launch plan. Under these circumstances, North Korea seems to have chosen to take action unexpectedly, rather than following the predictable steps, in a bid to avoid potential sanctions resulting from the rocket launch.

Some speculate North Korea pushed through the launch plan in consideration of the first anniversary of the death of former leader Kim Jong-il on December 17th. North Korea has so far cited a satellite launch as one of the important wishes left by the late leader. That is, Pyongyang is using the rocket launch to commemorate the anniversary. It is also assumed that North Korea is aiming to highlight the new “Kim Jong-un era” by praising a successful rocket launch as a major achievement in ushering in a strong and prosperous country. Why has North Korea launched rockets persistently despite international pressure?

As far as national security is concerned, North Korea views the U.S. as an enemy. The U.S. has thousands of nuclear weapons and the North wants to build up a deterrent against them. For this goal, it believes it should be capable of assaulting the continental U.S. North Korea is developing rockets in a strategic move to keep the U.S. in check, and urge it to be more committed to negotiations. For North Korea, the biggest rival is South Korea. But it is almost impossible for the communist country to catch up with its southern rival in economic power, which influences military strength greatly. Feeling uneasy that it could be outstripped by South Korea in military power, Pyongyang pursues nuclear and missile development.

Meanwhile, the South Korean government is busy devising measures to respond to Pyongyang’s unexpected rocket launch. President Lee Myung-bak assembled an emergency meeting of the National Security Council on Wednesday morning, immediately after the rocket launch. The South Korean Foreign Minister also discussed follow-up measures with diplomatic officials of Japan and the U.S. Also, at the request of the U.S. and Japan, the U.N. Security Council has convened a meeting to issue a statement condemning North Korea’s provocation. It also said there would be additional sanctions. The U.N. Security Council sees North Korea’s rocket launch as a violation of the existing resolution that bans the nation from conducting any launch using ballistic missile technology. Now, attention is on what sanctions the international community may impose on North Korea.

When North Korea launched the Eunha-3 rocket in April, it exploded only two minutes after liftoff. Despite the failed launch, the U.N. Security Council adopted a presidential statement strongly condemning North Korea. The presidential statement requires an automatic gathering of the Security Council if North Korea launches a missile using ballistic missile technology. Accordingly, the Security Council is to convene on the very day of the rocket launch. Led by the U.S. and Japan, the Security Council is likely to attempt to adopt a resolution slapping sanctions against North Korea. But China and Russia, which have maintained unique relations with Pyongyang, may remain rather circumspect, questioning the usefulness of another resolution.

Some are worried that when international sanctions are enforced, North Korea may respond to with additional provocation. North Korea has conducted nuclear tests twice, which came on the heels of long-range rocket launches each time. Concerns are rising that North Korea may detonate a nuclear device yet again.

After North Korea launched rockets in 2006 and in 2009, the U.N. Security Council condemned the nation through resolutions or presidential statements. But North Korea argued that it had the right to use outer space for peaceful purposes as an independent country. Citing this, the nation went ahead with nuclear tests. If the international community decides to impose strong sanctions on North Korea this time, it is possible that the North may push through another nuclear test.

The international community is voicing concerns in the wake of North Korea’s sudden rocket launch. North Korea should refrain from any further provocations, while the international community must strengthen its diplomatic efforts so the communist state will not cause even more serious conflict.


[Interview] Civic Group Arranges Year-End Party for N. Korean Newcomers
The year 2012 is coming to an end. A group of North Korean newcomers got together for a year-end party in Seodaemun District, western Seoul, on November 29th. Organized by the Citizens’ Alliance for North Korean Human Rights, the year-end party was attended by 150 people. The event included members of the civic group, North Korean defectors, and volunteers from across the country. During the party, participants watched photos featuring the activities the group has carried out for the past year, and six North Korean students received a scholarship. Let’s hear from Kim Mi-ri, head of the group’s Education &Training Team.

We select scholarship students once a year. We’ve picked six beneficiaries this year and will provide each of them with a total of 2.4 million won in 2013, 200-thousand won per month. Students here are from different schools all across the country. Some of them attend universities in Seoul and others are from local universities. We choose scholarship students from those who participate in our annual leadership camp program and lead a school life diligently at the same time.

Participants enjoyed dinner during the second session of the party, which was held in a casual atmosphere. During the session, a North Korean musician played the sohaeguem, a North Korean musical instrument. The North Korean participants, who had seldom found comfort in an unfamiliar environment, had a rare opportunity to share their stories and ease their homesickness, even for a short while.

I haven’t seen my daughter for ten years. I miss her so much. But I was able to share my sorrow with my friends here. North Korean expatriates usually stay at home, and it’s really good for them to join a party like this. So I brought a few friends with me today. In North Korea, we can’t even think of this kind of party.

According to North Korean defectors, year-end parties in North Korea are usually organized by the party or the government, not by citizens. The parties are held in the form of a rally where participants swear their loyalty to the party for the coming year. How do the North Korean newcomers review their South Korean life for the past year and what plans do they have for the New Year?

…As a student, I hope to learn more in 2013. Also as a South Korean citizen, I hope to do something good in such areas as North Korean human rights and unification, other than studying.

…I hope the economy will develop and our livelihood will improve as well. We’ll work hard towards that goal.

…Health is the most important thing in whatever you do. Whenever the New Year comes, we set new goals. Even if the goals may not turn out well, I think we should run toward those goals consistently with hope. We will then be able to realize our dreams after all.

This year, the public showed keen interest in the issue of the forcible repatriation of North Korean defectors. Against this backdrop, the Citizens’ Alliance for North Korean Human Rights attempted to encourage many more high school as well as college students and ordinary citizens to learn about the North Korean human rights situation. The group cites this as the biggest outcome of 2012. As the number of North Korean defectors coming to South Korea is increasing year after year, Ms. Kim stresses the need for greater support for North Korean defectors and more attention to their human rights.

Thanks to the year-end party, the North Korean expatriates shared warmth of South Korean society and realized the true meaning of sharing. Let’s keep our fingers crossed that all their dreams will come true in the coming year.