There is a series of signs indicating that North Korea is laying the groundwork for power succession from Kim Jong-il, chairman of the National Defense Commission, to his third son, Kim Jong-un. Diplomatic experts are particularly noting the North’s announcement that it will hold a meeting of representatives of the ruling Workers’ Party—the first in 44 years—in September. Quoting a decision of the Politburo of the Workers’ Party, the North’s state-run Korean Central News Agency has reported that the party will convene a conference of its delegates in September to elect its highest leading organ. The conference of key members of the Workers’ Party has been held only twice in the North since the division of Korea. Dr. Hong Hyun-ik from the Sejong Institute explains that the move is apparently aimed at establishing the father-to-son power transfer scheme.

A communist state is usually ruled by its communist party. However, North Korean leader Kim Jong-il established the National Defense Commission, a special agency that exists solely in North Korea, and this military-centered organization has governed the nation since Kim Jong-il took power after the death of his father and former leader Kim Il-sung. And now, Kim seems to be seeking a three-generational hereditary power succession to his third son, Kim Jong-un. The meeting of representatives of the Workers’ Party will be held this fall. One purpose is to fill vacancies in party personnel. The ruling party’s authority has weakened considerably, as the power of the National Defense Commission has strengthened. A more important purpose of the convention is to restore the party’s functions and elect powerful figures, who would support heir-apparent Kim Jong-un, as high officials of the party in order to help smooth the progress of the prospective power transfer.

Signs of power succession are also detected in the Rodong Sinmun, an organ of the North’s Workers’ Party. In an editorial on June 30 about a Politburo meeting in September, the paper said, “We must risk our lives to defend the party’s central committee and unite together around the Party Center.” Earlier, on June 11, the term, “party center,” appeared in the same paper. This expression was used to describe Kim Jong-il when he was nominated as the heir to North Korean leadership. The phrase has frequently resurfaced of late, spawning speculation that it may refer to Kim Jong-un.

In February 1974, Kim Jong-il was named a Politburo member during the all-members meeting of the central committee of the Workers’ Party. By assuming one of the highest posts in the party, he became the de-facto heir apparent. It was hard to justify the designation of Kim Jong-il as heir apparent just because he was the son of then-North Korean leader Kim Il-sung, and a new term “party center” was used to call the junior Kim at the time. This term reappeared in Rodong Sinmun late last month, indicating it could be part of preparations for naming Kim Jong-un the heir to Kim Jong-il at the September meeting.

Also, it seems that idolization of the heir apparent, a key part in the leadership transfer in North Korea, has progressed considerably. Sources say North Korean authorities are spreading poems and songs worshipping Kim Jong-un. They are also preparing to distribute 10 million portraits of Kim. Given the circumstances, it is speculated that the younger Kim may be elected to a key post at the September convention so his heir status will officially be recognized. There are many conflicting opinions, though.

Kim Jong-un could be appointed as a Politburo member of the central committee of the Workers’ Party, a member of the party’s central military committee or a member of the party secretariat. As a party secretary, he could assume the role of the chief of the Organization Department, a core agency in charge of personnel affairs of the party. With North Korea suffering from severe economic difficulties and food shortages, however, the leadership transition to this 20-something man, who hasn’t made particular contributions to North Korean society, may be met with backlash from citizens. So, the nation could refrain from assigning a key post to the younger Kim this time around. Instead, it may elect or promote Kim’s supporters in a move to lay the groundwork for naming him an official heir in 2012 and facilitating the power transfer process.

Current leader Kim Jong-il inherited power from his father over the course of 30 years. In contrast, why is North Korea speeding up the power succession to Kim Jong-un? The South Korean government cites Kim Jong-il’s health conditions as the number one motivation. During the National Assembly’s Intelligence Committee meeting on June 24, National Intelligence Service Director Won Se-hoon said that North Korea was focusing on a prompt power transfer due to lingering concerns about Kim Jong-il’s poor health. Won added that Kim Jong-un had accompanied his father on various occasions recently, expanding his participation in policy-making. On the other hand, some North Korea watchers explain that Pyongyang seeks to complete the transfer of power by 2012, which will mark the centennial anniversary of the birth of the North’s founding leader Kim Il-sung and is also the target year for building a strong and prosperous nation. Whatever the predictions, Mr. Hong says the government must prepare for its own measures to effectively cope with a possible change in North Korea.

The heir apparent in North Korea lacks political or social experience. Also, communist countries deliberately heighten tension inside and outside the nation in the course of leadership succession to ensure a smooth transition process, if history is any guide. Some suspect North Korea attacked the South Korean warship Cheonan on purpose to facilitate the power succession to Kim Jong-un. In this respect, North Korea could initiate a regional war, like the Cheonan incident, or repeat military provocations irregularly in the process of a power transfer. With this in mind, the government should not isolate North Korea further or enforce sanctions on the North in a hawkish approach, but build a dialogue channel between the two sides and resume the six-party nuclear talks quickly. It would be wise of South Korea to use both carrots and sticks when dealing with North Korea.

North Korea vows to build a strong and prosperous nation in 2012 by establishing nuclear sovereignty and an independent economy. But it remains to be seen whether the nation can really achieve a smooth father-to-son power transfer, as Kim Jong-il is dreaming, and how the North’s leadership transition may influence regional diplomacy.



[Interview] Exhibition of N. Korean Teenage Defectors
This year marks the 60th anniversary of the outbreak of the Korean War. To mark the significant occasion, a group of students from “Three Four School,” an alternative education facility for teenagers from North Korea, have held a special exhibition featuring their hopes and dreams of a unified Korea. Entitled “A Long Journey,” the exhibition was held at Topohaus, an art and design gallery in Insa-dong, downtown Seoul, for one week from June 23. The school has occasionally displayed student works since its inception in 2004, but this was the first time that the school held a large-scale exhibition for a relatively long period of time. Here’s school principal Park Sang-young to explain more about the exhibition.

2010 marks the 60th year of the start of the Korean War. It is an important year to reawaken us to the significance of war and the pain of national division. I’d say North Korean defectors are a symbol representing the sad legacy of a divided Korea. They escaped their home country and live in an unfamiliar South Korean environment. I wanted to help them reminisce about their long journey toward South Korea and to remind them of the urgent need for reunification. This exhibition, “A Long Journey,” has a theme of “Four Memories.”

Most of all, Park hoped to help the public learn how the young defectors from North Korea have been able to heal their emotional scars. He stresses that culture is not acquired by education, but something to experience directly, understand and adjust to. The exhibition featured not only the students’ writings and videos but also musicals of their own production and ocarina performances. The theme of the exhibition, “Four Memories,” is based on their own experiences.

In Memory One, the students recall warm memories about their hometowns, which gives them positive energy to overcome the current difficulties. They stayed in a village in Haenam, located at the southernmost part of the Korean Peninsula, for two weeks in April. The village is called “the end of the land.” There, the youngsters took pictures of mountains, fields, houses and senior citizens, all smacking of their hometowns. Those photos are on display. Memory Two is about the inconsolable pain of leaving loved ones behind. The students’ 2005 defection and hopeful stories after arriving in South Korea are described in some 20 documentary films.

In Memory Three, mostly about the students’ resettlement in South Korea, they displayed their family photos—the strongest pillar of hope for them. Some students recited poems of their own writing to share their stories.

I’m Choi Geum-hee. I belong to the school’s first batch of graduates. I participated in a book-writing project, “Spring Comes When Flowers Bloom.” I went hiking in Jeju Island with college students from North and South Korea. The pictures I took in Jeju are displayed here. We, newcomers, are not any different from South Koreans. We have the same worries as our South Korean peers do. But they know little about us, so some people have biased views toward the defectors. Through this exhibition, I hoped to show them that we are just the ordinary citizens living in their society.

The week-long exhibition reveals how the defector students have healed their mental scars and how they are nurturing their hopes. Here’s hoping the young students will live cheerfully and confidently and take firm root here in South Korean society.