North Korea has once again heightened tension with the seizure of a South Korean fishing boat and the firing of some 100 artillery rounds into the West Sea. According to the South Korean military, ten rounds were fired toward Baengnyeong Island around 5:30 p.m. on August 9, with an additional 110 rounds fired toward the waters near Baengnyeong, Daecheong and Yeongpyeong islands at 5:40 p.m. It was confirmed that some of the artillery shells landed in waters south of the inter-Korean maritime border, known as the Northern Limit Line. The aggressive act came right after South Korea ended a massive five-day naval drill in the West Sea. Here’s Professor Yu Ho-yeol from the North Korean Studies Department at Korea University to analyze the backdrop for the North’s artillery barrage.

Through the firing of artillery shells, which came on the heels of Seoul ending an anti-submarine exercise in the West Sea, North Korea is demonstrating that its previous warning of a physical response to South Korea’s maritime exercise is more than just an empty word. Also, North Korea needed to solidify internal unity by maintaining tension at a time when the nation has to address many difficulties, such as a power transfer, economic hardship and diplomatic isolation in the wake of the sinking of the South Korean frigate Cheonan. The artillery firing was deliberately planned against this backdrop, but in a way not to aggravate the situation right away.

Even after the firing, North Korea’s threat continued. Criticizing South Korea’s naval exercise in the West Sea, the Rodong Sinmun newspaper, published by the North’s ruling Workers’ Party, said on August 10 that North Korea would clearly show the South the genuine taste of a war through a retaliatory sacred war of its own style hinged on its nuclear deterrent power. Earlier, on August 8, a North Korean patrol ship seized a South Korean fishing boat operating in the sea off the east coast, raising concerns about another setback in inter-Korean relations. According to the coast guard, a squid fishing boat, Daeseung 55, with four Koreans and three Chinese aboard, was captured by North Korea in the waters 270 kilometers off the eastern area of Musudan-ri in the North. Some speculate that Pyongyang is stepping up its pressure on Seoul gradually, noting that North Korea’s artillery firing may have something to do with the boat seizure.

In the past, North Korea would simply regard the similar incidents as an accidental crossing of the maritime border. At present, however, the North Korean military stays on high alert, and it has yet to make a specific announcement about the detained South Korean boat. The unwarned artillery firing in the West Sea also indicates escalating tension inside North Korea. But for now, it’s hard to say the two incidents are directly related.

Amid the deepening tension, some subscribe to the pessimistic view that North Korea won’t return the South Korean fishing boat anytime soon. The boat is reportedly detained in Seong-jin Port in North Korea, and Pyongyang has yet to notify Seoul of the details of the seizure. If North Korea promptly returns the boat and its crew members, it could be interpreted as Pyongyang’s intention not to worsen relations with Seoul any further. However, the two sides have engaged in a fierce war of nerves since the Cheonan disaster, with a series of military exercises in South Korea causing a strong backlash from the North. Under these circumstances, North Korea could prolong the detention of the South Korean boat in a bid to intensify pressure on Seoul. But Professor Yu says the recent incidents may not necessarily influence future inter-Korean ties negatively.

Of course, North Korea’s unwarned firing of more than 100 shells into the South Korean waters does not bode well for inter-Korean ties. But if the situation doesn’t aggravate further, and if the North concludes the South Korea boat accidentally drifted into North Korean waters, the two sides could form an atmosphere for resuming dialogue. The seven crew members aboard the fishing boat include three Chinese. So, it’s not a simple inter-Korean matter. China will seek a swift solution of this problem to protect its own nationals. It isn’t to North Korea’s own advantage to intentionally ratchet up tension in inter-Korean relations with this incident. The boat seizure isn’t a good sign for inter-Korean ties, but we don’t necessarily have to be pessimistic, either.

The Seoul government is, meanwhile, tightening security against additional provocations from North Korea. The government sent a message urging Pyongyang to repatriate the South Korean boat and its crew members as soon as possible based on the humanitarian spirit and international laws and to explain the details of the boat seizure. The international community, too, is expressing concerns and warnings about the North’s recent attitude. On August 10, U.S. State Department spokesman Philip Crowley strongly denounced North Korea’s artillery firing, adding that there will be no reward for North Korea for such provocations that would not be helpful for easing regional tension and that the communist nation will only be isolated further. The Chinese embassy in North Korea also expressed worries about the seizure of the Daeseung and demanded for the humanitarian treatment of Chinese crew members. Professor Yu cites the need for mid-and long-term strategies, noting that military exercises will continue in South Korea until December this year.

The South Korean government has every reason to request the safe and prompt return of its fishing boat in light of humanitarianism and international law. Considering the boat carried Chinese people as well as Koreans, the government must resolve this matter in an internationally reasonable way. Cooperation with China will be necessary, of course. South Korea plans to hold additional military exercises in the West Sea, but it should convince North Korea in advance that the defensive drills are never designed to intensify tension. In that process, Seoul needs to come up with mid-and long-term strategies aimed at resolving the nuclear issue and easing inter-Korean conflict.

It depends largely on North Korea whether the ongoing tension will be protracted or relieved soon. North Korea should no longer exacerbate the conflict with Seoul with armed provocations but return the South Korean boat as early as possible so the two sides can turn the recent mishaps into an opportunity to mend their ties and alleviate tension in the region.



[Interview] Defector Establishes Research Institute for N. Korean Affairs
Dr. Ahn Chan-il, a former North Korean defector, established a research institute for North Korean affairs on July 15. Ahn is the first North Korean defector to earn a doctoral degree here in South Korea, and it also marks the first time a North Korean defector-turned-scholar has set up such a research center. Dr. Ahn says he’s very proud of this institute, stressing its distinctive characteristics.

North Korea must change now. The main job of this research institute is to suggest possible alternative plans to North Korea, which has no other option but to change its regime and pursue reforms and openness. In this respect, the institute is different from other similar research centers. Previous research on North Korea was mostly focused on collecting objective information, since direct access to North Korea was almost impossible. The members of this institute, on the other hand, lived for 20-30 years in North Korea. I believe our substantial research linking North Korea’s reality with general studies are more advanced than that which exists.

The research center has about ten members, including scholars from North Korea and domestic experts in North Korea and unification issues. The team is also joined by researchers from Russia and Romania, who experienced the collapse of socialism themselves, as well as scholars from Japan and the U.S. In cooperation with the researchers from diverse ethnic background, Dr. Ahn says he will fill the vacuum in previous research on North Korea, which has been criticized for not properly reflecting the North Korean reality. He suggests three main research topics.

Our research is focused on politics, economy and social integration. As for politics, North Korea is expected to seek a regime change following the third meeting of delegates of the ruling Workers’ Party in September this year. On the economic front, we’re hoping the North will shift into Chinese-style reforms and openness. Lastly, about social integration, we’re examining the ongoing rupture and conflict between social classes in North Korea. We will study how China patched up the similar conflict in the process of introducing a market economy and a new democracy. All this research is designed to help North Korea learn ways to overcome various problems amid the collapse of its socialist system.

Ahn served as an assistant platoon commander in a North Korean military unit near the truce village of Panmunjeom until he crossed the barbed-wire fence to defect to South Korea in 1979. In North Korea, he obtained the membership of the Workers’ Party at the age of 25 and he applied for Kim Il-sung College of Politics, the most prestigious military school in the nation. But the party assigned him to Kim Il-sung University instead, a general social science school. Disappointed with a party that didn’t recognize his abilities, and frustrated with a failing socialist system, he decided to escape his home country. After arriving in South Korea, he studied political science and diplomacy at Korea University and earned a doctorate degree in Konkuk University in 1997. He also worked as a technical expert in North Korean issues at the National Intelligence Service. Why did he choose to study politics, in particular, among other subjects?

Strictly speaking, politics in North Korea cannot be viewed as true politics. But I was greatly interested in politics when I was younger. I decided to study political science and diplomacy to become a specialist in unification issues. I’ve always hoped, when the two Koreas are unified, I can give North Korean students lectures on various political subjects, such as democracy, elections, party politics, social conflict, and emergence and disappearance of interest groups.

Last year, the U.S. government proposed granting him permanent American residency and asked him to research North Korean affairs in the U.S. But he eventually chose to remain in South Korea to manage the research institute, to which he shows deep attachment. Ahn now talks about the institute’s potential role.

Inter-Korean relations have now been brought to their worst point. Nevertheless, I believe they should improve and move forward in a positive way. I hope this institute will produce many research papers that will prove helpful for North Korea’s regime change, and will serve as a useful guide for the nation to build an ideal democratic society. We’ll also make strenuous efforts to appeal to the international community for the urgent need for unification of Korea and to arouse global interest in peace and unification in this part of the world.