At 14:34 local time on November 23, North Korea fired dozens of artillery shells from coastal artillery and howitzers into Yeonpyeong Island near the western inter-Korean maritime border. The shots came from North Korea’s Gaemori coastal artillery base, 12 kilometers away from the South Korean island. Dozens of shells fell on the island for about 20 minutes, with flames engulfing the island soon after. At 14:47, the South Korean military launched about 80 rounds in response to North Korea’s firing of some 170 shells. The exchange of fire plunged the island into fear and panic, with local residents hurriedly evacuating. Here’s Yonhap News Agency reporter Jang Yong-hun to describe the acute situation at the time.

Hit by North Korea’s artillery attack, Yeonpyeong Island fell into utter confusion. Some ten houses were destroyed and a fire continued to burn in the mountains until 7 p.m. It looked like the island turned into a sea of fire. The township office instructed evacuation through a loudspeaker, and the islanders immediately evacuated to 19 shelters and military bases in the area. Students in local elementary and junior high schools also hid in shelters inside the schools with their teachers. The residents endured darkness and cold by candlelight to stay the night in the shelters, due to a problem in electricity provision. It was very difficult to bring the fire under control because firefighters were far from enough and many houses were clustered in the area.

In the artillery firing, two South Korean marines and two civilians were killed, and some residents and soldiers were wounded. Houses and public offices, including a police substation, either collapsed or burned, and the mountain fire inflicted serious damage. The South Korean Marine Corps began to transport islanders to the mainland by ship, while the military is still on full alert and closely watching any movement of the North Korean military. The Joint Chiefs of Staff issued a top military alert, “jindogae 1,” for five islands in the area, including Yeonpyeong. Reporter Jang continues to explain.

The alert status “jindogae” is declared when an enemy invasion is expected or actually occurs or armed soldiers desert from barracks. Under “jindogae 1,” the highest alert status, the police, the military and reserve forces are restricted in carrying out their basic missions but are dispatched to designated areas under instruction to maintain combat readiness. Under “jindogae 2,” the next highest level, military forces are put on a heightened alert, ready to mobilize. Under “jindogae” security posture, regimental commander-level officers in the army, defense forces admiral-level leaders in the navy and commanding officers or higher-level personnel in the air force are entitled to issuing alerts in their respective military areas and special security zones.

North Korea’s provocative action has continued near land and sea borders. North Korean armed guerillas infiltrated into the South in the 1960s, and the communist nation sent armed agents, though on a small scale, in the 1970s. North Korea habitually disturbed South Korea in the form of terror attacks, such as the 1983 bombing at the Aung San Martyr’s Mausoleum in Myanmar that killed South Koreans there and the fatal bombing of a South Korean airliner in 1987. Beginning in the 1990s, North Korea focused on maritime infiltration, and for the first time since the Korean War, the navies from South and North Korea engaged in a gun battle off the waters of Yeonpyeong Island in June 1999. Another inter-Korean naval clash occurred on the same waters in 2002, and the South Korean warship Cheonan sank in an apparent torpedo attack by North Korea in March this year to claim lives of 46 sailors. In this way, North Korea’s provocation is becoming bolder and more violent. Let’s hear from Dr. Hong Hyun-ik from the Sejong Institute.

The latest bombing on civilians on Yeonpyeong Island is an act of massive destruction, which will definitely draw strong international condemnation. Unlike land areas guarded by the South Korea-U.S. combined forces, Yeonpyeong Island is defended solely by the South Korean military. That is, any military provocation and exchange of fire in this area only involves South Korea, not the U.S. North Korea is well aware of this. Also, the sea area is a strategic point of the South Korean navy. North Korea may not have necessarily targeted civilians from the beginning, but it seems to have certainly aimed at major public facilities, including a community center, in order to instill fear in South Korean people. In doing so, North Korea seeks to prod the South Korean public into pressuring the government to change its North Korea policy.

North Korea has recently disclosed its uranium enrichment facility where centrifuges are operating, causing a stir in the international community. Diplomatic experts speculate this series of provocative acts from Pyongyang are aimed at drawing South Korea and the U.S. to the negotiation table. In other words, the North is urging the U.S. to start dialogue with North Korea quickly and not to use sanctions or put diplomatic pressure on the North. To South Korea, which has recently conducted a maritime firing drill in the water near Yeonpyeong Island, Pyongyang makes it clear that there will be no concessions or compromise whatsoever when it comes to military and security issues. As for the background for North Korea’s provocation, Dr. Hong cites another reason, which has to do with the internal situation in the North.

North Korean people had few complaints about a second-generation power transition in the past. But now, the nation is pushing for a third-generation power succession to Kim Jong-un, a callow young man who isn’t very familiar to people. It’s little wonder current leader Kim Jong-il is worried that his son will successfully take over power and rule the nation properly. To elicit loyalty from seniors in the military and the party—the key support base for retaining power—the North Korean leadership seems to have decided to get tougher on South Korea. That is, the North wants to prove greatness of its military-first politics by demonstrating its successful attack on South Korea. Also, mounting tension outside the nation helps the North Korean government solidify internal unity and prevent the public from being alienated from the government.

Four hours and 20 minutes after the artillery attack, North Korea made its first announcement in the name of the supreme military command. It threatened to continue launching strikes against South Korea if it violates their sea border by even 0.001 millimeter. In the wake of the incident, inter-Korean ties will inevitably undergo a cold spell again. The Unification Ministry in Seoul decided to indefinitely postpone inter-Korean Red Cross talks, which were scheduled for today, November 25, and temporarily suspended some aid supplies that were being delivered to Sinuiju, a North Korean town bordering China. Moreover, there is no guarantee of normal operation of the inter-Korean joint industrial complex in Gaeseong, the last remaining hope for improving bilateral ties. Here’s researcher Cho Bong-hyeon from the Industrial Bank of Korea Economic Research Institute.

Even the Gaeseong Industrial Complex will be affected by North Korea’s recent artillery attack on Yeonpyong Island, which is in the same zone where the industrial park is located. North Korea may possibly put additional pressure on the Gaeseong industrial park. The Gaeseong project has already suffered setbacks since the Cheonan incident, due to the South Korean government’s retaliatory measures against the North. Production has shrunken and a number of manufacturers have left the industrial park. If North Korea makes additional provocation, the government may take strong measures related to the Gaeseong industrial park—something like downsizing or a partial pullout.

As we cannot entirely rule out the possibility of North Korea’s additional provocation, there are rising concerns about the safety of the South Korean personnel in Gaeseong and in the Mt. Geumgang area. Right after North Korea’s artillery firing, the Unification Ministry instructed the Gaeseong industrial park management committee and Hyundai Asan to enhance the safety of South Koreans who currently stay in the regions. Mr. Cho calls for the government to respond to the incident properly.

If the Yeonpyeong incident is put under control in this current state, the economy will stabilize quickly. But additional provocation from North Korea could shock the South Korean economy deeply. It’s necessary to seek economic stability by eliminating negative factors involving North Korea in the local stock and financial market and by underlining the fact that the domestic situation is not that serious. The government also needs to devise comprehensive measures to stabilize imports of raw materials and overseas trade so South Korean companies can focus on their business activities.

Meanwhile, involved countries are quickly responding to North Korea’s surprise artillery barrage. In a statement released on the day of the attack, White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs strongly denounced North Korea for shelling the South Korean island. The next day, U.S. President Barack Obama convened an emergency security meeting and reiterated Washington’s firm commitment to South Korea’s defense and solid alliance between the two countries. Japan, too, held a security meeting to prepare for emergencies, while Russia said in an official statement that it condemned any use of military force by North Korea. But China remains rather circumspect, urging both Koreas to stay calm and refrain from any aggressive act. In the meantime, the South Korean government is moving fast to respond to the provocation from the North. President Lee Myung-bak defined it as North Korea’s invasion into South Korean territory and instructed officials to consider revising the rules of engagement in order to counter North Korea’s military provocation in a more proactive way. The government has also started a diplomatic campaign aimed at mustering concerted cooperation from countries that could exert practical influence on North Korea. The government summoned ambassadors of China, Japan and Russia in South Korea to brief Seoul’s position. But South Korea is cautious about addressing the matter at the U.N.-level, having China’s veto in mind. Dr. Hong predicts that North Korea’s recent attack on the South, if referred to the U.N. Security Council, will certainly ignite international condemnation.

Such an illegitimate act of aggression by North Korea is clearly a violation of the U.N. Charter, the Korean War Armistice and the inter-Korean non-aggression agreement. The Military Armistice Commission has requested a meeting. But if North Korea boycotts it, the U.N. Security Council could adopt another resolution denouncing North Korea, even without a request by the Seoul government. But South Korea is carefully examining whether to bring the case to the U.N. Security Council, because the council has passed a number of resolutions against North Korea before. When presented to the U.N., Pyongyang’s brutal act can’t avoid international criticism, of course. Even if a new resolution may not be adopted, the council members will, at least, agree on the strict implementation of existing resolutions against the North.

North Korea has conducted a military provocation yet again, even before a solution to the Cheonan disaster, making the prospects for inter-Korean relations even murkier. It’s time for the involved countries to put their heads together to thwart additional provocation from North Korea and to prevent the current setback from developing into a more serious conflict.