From the beginning of this month, a slight change has been sensed in the diplomatic mood on the Korean Peninsula. Experts explain that a mood for dialogue has been ripening since former U.S. President Jimmy Carter’s North Korea visit and Chinese top nuclear envoy Wu Dawei’s South Korea visit last week. In particular, experts are noting North Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s message, which Carter delivered to the South Korean government. Pyongyang’s dialogue proposal, indicated in the North Korea leader’s message, is considered significant, since it came at a time when participants of the six-party talks, especially South Korea, the U.S. and China, are pushing to jumpstart the dialogue process. Here’s Dr. Hong Hyeon-ik at the Sejong Institute to explain.

Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter traveled to Pyongyang last week together with three other former heads of state. Initially, Carter was expected to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-il and bring a hopeful message of reconciliation to South Korea. While Carter’s trip fell short of expectations, it still carries significance. He did bring Kim Jong-il’s message to Seoul, although he failed to meet the North Korean leader. The message is Kim’s first proposal for an inter-Korean summit since the inauguration of the Lee Myung-bak government in South Korea. In the message, Kim also expressed his country’s position to return to the six-party nuclear talks without any preconditions. In brief, the message indicates the North Korean leader’s strong will to improve relations with South Korea and move forward with dialogue and reconciliation.

Pyongyang has also accepted a proposal for inter-Korean talks on North Korea’s denuclearization. According to Carter, North Korea insisted on discussing the nuclear issue solely with the U.S. in the past, but it is now willing to discuss it directly with the South Korean government. That is, the North agrees on the so-called “three-stage dialogue process,” in which inter-Korean dialogue would take place first, followed by North Korea-U.S. dialogue and finally the resumption of the six-party nuclear talks. Also notably, there seems to be a slight shift in North Korea’s attitude concerning its two military provocations against South Korea last year—the sinking of the Cheonan warship and the North’s artillery attack on Yeonpyeong Island. Carter explains that the North Korean military did not apologize or acknowledge its responsibility for the two aggressions but it expressed deep regret for the loss of lives on the Cheonan and the deaths of civilians on Yeonpyeong Island. Why did North Korea change its previous stance?

Inside the nation, North Korea suffers from severe economic difficulties and food shortages. The nation needs to receive food aid from South Korea and it is also urgent to avoid international sanctions that have been imposed on the North in the wake of its nuclear and missile tests. 2012 is approaching—the year that North Korea pegged for its goal of building a strong and prosperous nation, but it is still caught up in economic difficulties. The country needs to improve ties with the outside world, including South Korea and the U.S. It seems that Kim Jong-il is intending to shift from conflict and confrontation to reconciliation. And his intention was conveyed to South Korea through Carter.

Involved countries are now seeking “negotiations,” rather than engaging in a war of nerves to explore the true intentions of other parties. Against this backdrop, North Korea has been active in private-level inter-Korean contact. South and North Korea have already held two rounds of expert talks on possible volcanic activities at Mt. Baekdu in the North. During the talks, the two sides agreed to hold an academic forum in early May and conduct a joint field investigation in mid-June. More recently, the two sides have agreed in principle to cooperate in the naming of the East Sea. On April 27, North Korea’s Academy of Social Science sent a message to South Korea’s Northeast Asia History Foundation, suggesting that historians from the two sides take a joint stance on the naming issue. The South Korean foundation responded positively and proposed that they hold a meeting in the North Korean border town of Gaeseong in mid-May. Dr. Hong speculates that North Korea’s recent dialogue proposals have various purposes.

North Korea has always been willing to hold talks with the U.S. without preconditions, but inter-Korean relations have been mired in a protracted stalemate. The South Korean government finds it difficult to mend ties with North Korea unless the North comes clean about its two major armed provocations last year. Under these circumstances, North Korea is trying to realize dialogue with the U.S. by indirectly using South Korea. While offering proposals that are hard for South Korea to refuse, North Korea is demonstrating to the U.S. that it is committed to inter-Korean dialogue. Moreover, the North says that South Korea is responsible for failed inter-Korean dialogue, stressing the need for North Korea-U.S. dialogue. The South Korean government is fully aware of the deceptive tactics employed by North Korea.

Attention now swings to whether the private-level contact between the two Koreas will lead to authorities-level talks. Some predict that the government will inevitably seek dialogue with the North, considering that North Korea-China relations are strengthening and North Korea and the U.S. are expected to expand bilateral contacts. But current inter-Korean relations expose deep mutual distrust in political and military areas. Experts say that the future course of regional diplomacy depends on what decisions the authorities of the two Koreas make and how their attitudes will change.

Most importantly, South and North Korea must find a compromise on the North’s military provocations in any fashion. I think they will reach a compromise immediately once North Korea shows sincerity. Only then will the two sides be able to facilitate authorities-level dialogue and private-level exchanges. But it’s hard to predict that North Korea will offer a sincere apology. Yet, the North went as far as saying that it is ready to rejoin the six-party talks without preconditions. The North could take one or two steps further, like allowing the inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Agency to return to North Korea to monitor its uranium enrichment program or halting operations of its nuclear programs. If that happens, inter-Korean dialogue and the six-party talks may proceed swiftly. To come to that point, a change in strategies or actions in both South and North Korea will be the biggest factor influencing regional diplomacy.

Experts stress that South and North Korea may find a breakthrough as long as they are committed to dialogue and demonstrate a little more flexibility. The two Koreas now stand at the crossroads between confrontation and dialogue.


[Interview] Report on S. Korean Pop Culture Boom in N. Korea The sweeping fever for Korean pop culture, known as the Korean Wave or Hallyu, is spreading from Asia to many other parts of the world, including Europe and the Middle East. Interestingly, it has been found that North Korean people, too, enjoy watching South Korean movies and soap operas. Statistics Korea said in January that South Korean-made goods are becoming increasingly popular with North Korean people and the fad of watching South Korean films and dramas is sweeping the younger generation in the North. Amid the growing interest in hallyu in North Korea, some people are getting busier and busier. They are Dr. Kang Dong-wan, a chief researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, and his wife Dr. Park Jeong-ran, a senior researcher at the Seoul National University Institute for Peace and Unification Studies. As researchers dedicated to North Korean studies, the couple has recently published a book entitled, “Hallyu Shakes North Korea,” which explores the South Korean pop culture boom in the North.

I happened to go to Mueui Island near Incheon with my North Korean friend. There, we visited a set where the drama “Stairways to Heaven” was shot. My friend said he enjoyed watching the South Korean drama in North Korea, and he got emotional as he actually visited the filming site. After that, I asked many North Korean defectors if they had ever watched South Korean videos when they were in North Korea. Most of them said yes. I thought it would be necessary to research this subject systematically and I started studying with my wife.

The report was based on interviews and vivid testimonies of 100 defectors from nine provinces in North Korea. It is touted as the first academic research to bring the hallyu in North Korea to light, which had only been the subject of rumors. The researchers take note of the popularity of South Korean videos and DVDs in the North.

Interestingly, the survey result found that 41 percent of respondents had watched South Korean dramas and films once or twice a month. Some 34 percent replied they had watched them every day. A large number of North Koreans have watched South Korean DVDs. As for the most popular TV dramas, they cited “Autumn in My Heart” and “Stairways to Heaven.” It was also found that the respondents had seen many South Korean movies that made a big hit here in the South, such as “200-Pound Beauty,” “Marriage is a Crazy Thing,” “Public Enemy” and “My Wife is a Gangster.” The respondents mentioned many hallyu actors and actresses, including Choi Su-jong, Choi Ji-woo, Bae Yong-joon and Lee Byung-heon. As for K-pop singers, they knew the names of not only trot singers but also of dance singers, such as the now-disbanded female pop group Finkle and the boy band H.O.T. The singers were hugely popular with the North Korean respondents.

It is said that the defectors watched South Korean dramas and movies that they obtained from smugglers through video recorders and TV. Most of those engaging in trading and smuggling have secondhand video equipment and people would gather in their houses to watch the South Korean videos secretly. So, how have those South Korean movies and dramas influenced the North Korean people? Here again is Dr. Kang.

We asked questions like “What was the most impressive scene in South Korean dramas?” and “In which scenes did you experience the developed South Korean society?” The respondents listed the scenes of parents and children using different rooms and characters constantly changing their clothes. They said they were shocked to see women drivers. They were also impressed by white rice and a number of side dishes on the table, realizing that South Korean people are affluent. They wished they could live in a place like that. Obviously, they had fantasy or admiration for South Korea.

For North Korean people who have long lived in the strictly controlled society, the South Korean videos were a window into culture and a source of information about the outside world. The videos represented a whole new world that they had never experienced before. It comes as no surprise that hallyu has prompted many North Koreans to defect to the South. Dr. Park says it’s necessary to develop content to change the perceptions of North Koreans through the indirect experience of South Korean life in dramas and films, rather than by producing videos with political purposes.

Through this research, we discovered that North Koreans were greatly attracted by unintended, natural scenes, such as those featuring badmouthing and kissing. Watching those scenes, the North Koreans seemed to feel a true sense of freedom. When making movies and TV series, producers should now consider North Korean audiences as well as overseas fans in Asia. I hope they will refrain from inserting contrived elements in their works but bear in mind that their movies and dramas may have a good influence on the viewers across the border.

Dr. Kang and Dr. Park say that hallyu, the culture boom flowing through both Koreas, is the first step toward developing empathy between South and North Korean people and achieving unification. Their research will surely make a great contribution toward advancing the future reunification of Korea.