Concerns are rising in the international community as North Korea has announced that it will launch a long-range rocket in mid-April, only 15 days after reaching an agreement with the U.S. at their third round of high-level talks. A spokesman of North Korea’s Outer Space Technology Committee said in a statement on March 16th that the nation would launch the Unha-3 rocket carrying satellite Kwangmyongsong-3 between April 12th and 16th to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the birth of North Korea’s founder Kim Il-sung on April 15th. The North also said that the flight path for the working satellite has been safely set and the nation would follow relevant international regulations. It reiterated that the satellite launch has peaceful purposes, even calling it a legitimate act of a sovereign state that is recognized internationally. Citing North Korea’s history of missile launches, however, Dr. Jeon Seong-hun at the Korea Institute for National Unification expresses concern that satellite and missile propellants use similar technology.

North Korea launched a long-range missile for the first time in August 1998. It has since conducted two more missile launches. Each time, North Korea claimed that it put a satellite into orbit as part of a peaceful space program, denying that it was testing a long-range missile for military purposes. However, few would believe what North Korea says now, given Pyongyang’s history surrounding nuclear issues and the international community’s perception of the communist state. In fact, the launch technology of a satellite and a long-range missile is practically the same. A rocket can carry either a satellite or a nuclear warhead. Peaceful or military purposes can be determined, depending on what the rocket carries. Because of technological similarity between a satellite launch and a long-range missile test, international society remains unconvinced in North Korea’s motives, no matter what it says.

The South Korean government is paying attention to the site where the launch will take place. North Korea specified Dongchang-ri in Cholsan County, North Pyongan Province on the west coast, as the launch site. North Korea has been constructing its second missile base there for about ten years. If the rocket launch is to take place there, North Korea will reveal another launch station, along with the Musudan-ri facility in North Hamgyeong Province on the east coast.

North Korea’s previous three launches of long-range missiles all took place at the Musudan-ri launching ground. The projectiles were fired in an easterly direction, flying over Japan. If North Korea launches a missile at the Dongchang-ri base this time around, it will mark the first missile launch from the newly-introduced launch pad. Unlike previous rockets that headed eastward into the Pacific Ocean, the flight orbit of the upcoming one will be toward the southwest, all the way to the eastern coast of the Philippines. In a sense, it could pass South Korean airspace, so South Korea should pay special attention to it in terms of national security. The new Dongchang-ri facility is far more modern than the Musudan-ri base, and Seoul should take note of how the missile will be launched, which course it will fly through, and what technology will be used in the entire launch process.

So, why did North Korea announce its satellite launch plan so quickly after reaching an agreement with the U.S. on February 29th? Some speculate that North Korea is attempting to put stronger pressure on South Korea and the U.S. But Dr. Jeon cites the internal situation in North Korea as the major reason.

I think North Korea’s domestic situation served as an important factor. The nation has repeatedly maintained that it would usher in a strong and prosperous country around Kim Il-sung’s centennial birthday. When it comes to the economy, however, the Kim Jong-un regime has nothing to show off for its people. It needs to demonstrate something it already has in order to convince the citizens that their country is walking right into the path of a strong and prosperous country. In the current situation, a missile launch seems like the easiest choice. I think the domestic factors contributed greatly to Pyongyang’s announcement of a rocket launch.

The U.S. responded to North Korea’s announcement immediately. The U.S. State Department released a statement unusually early in the morning of March 16th, local time, calling Pyongyang’s announcement “highly provocative.” After the day broke, the U.S. warned in a regular briefing that it considered a long-range rocket launch an abrogation of the agreement between the two countries. The U.S. also said that it may withhold 240-thousand tons of food aid that was agreed upon between the two sides in exchange for North Korea’s suspension of missile tests and the return of nuclear inspectors to the North. But diplomatic experts say they will have to watch North Korea-U.S. relations for the time being, since Pyongyang has invited the International Atomic Energy Agency back into the country. The rocket launch could be understood to some extent, compared to a nuclear test, although it certainly is a sensitive issue as far as regional peace is concerned.

Obviously, Pyongyang has poured cold water on the favorable diplomatic mood in which the U.S. tries to keep its relations with North Korea going somehow. The U.S. doesn’t have any positive feelings left towards North Korea due to Pyongyang’s surprise announcement. It will certainly influence bilateral relations negatively. But North Korea may still keep to the previous agreement on the nuclear issue, separating the missile launch from the nuclear problem. If that happens, we have to watch whether the U.S. will actually halt its food aid for North Korea altogether. This is another task the U.S. may contend with. The missile launch could stir up a diplomatic row, but I think North Korea will stick to its previous position on the nuclear issue unless it dares to ruin relations with the U.S.

Both inside and outside of South Korea, meanwhile, there is mounting pressure for North Korea to stop its long-range rocket launch. The Seoul government has defined Pyongyang’s plan as a serious act of provocation and decided to discuss countermeasures with involved countries at the Nuclear Security Summit, which will be held in Seoul next week. Japan is reportedly examining ways to intercept the North Korean rocket if it flies toward its territory. Russia also expressed worries over the North Korean scheme. Even China, which covered up for North Korea whenever controversy arose, called in the North Korean ambassador in China to deliver its “concern” over the planned rocket launch. Every day, Beijing urges the North to exercise restraint in its behavior. Experts suspect that China is getting tough on North Korea this time around.

From the standpoint of the six-party nuclear talks, the missile launch won’t be the right choice to benefit North Korea. Even Russia and China, not to mention the U.S., South Korea and Japan, are reacting furiously, aren’t they? In a very unusual move, China called in the North Korean ambassador to express its concerns. China, for its part, wants stability in its neighboring countries this year—a politically volatile period where a leadership transitions will take place. Little wonder China frowns upon North Korea’s provocative act. I imagine Pyongyang’s accumulated unsatisfactory actions may induce China to revise its North Korea policy in some way over the long term.

Despite international concerns and warnings, North Korea says it will go ahead with the launch of the satellite Kwangmyongsong-3, escalating tension on the Korean Peninsula. North Korea should not forget what is most important in promoting peace and stability in the region as well as building trust with the U.S. for an improvement in bilateral ties.


[Interview] Play Portrays SK Society from Defector’s Viewpoint As soon as the director finishes talking, the actor and actress begin to perform their characters. A group of actors and actresses are busy rehearsing a play entitled “Sister Mok-ran” at Doosan Art Center in Jongro District, central Seoul. The drama is part of the art center’s annual play series “Border Riders,” which tackle social prejudices and stereotypes. Having been staged since March 9th, the play drew media attention from the production period. Director Jeon In-cheol says he came up with this play after he met a North Korean defector.

I happened to meet a North Korean defector while staging a theatrical performance. She was an accordion player from Pyongyang. She talked a lot about the lives of North Korean people, and I acutely felt that North Koreans weren’t any different from South Korean people. They work hard, love their family, have a drink with friends after work and share their problems with others. That’s how North Korean people live. There’s little difference between the people across the border and people here. I found myself hoping to portray North Korean life. That was how I started this project.

The play “Sister Mok-ran” unfolds from the viewpoint of a North Korean female defector named Cho Mok-ran. She majored in accordion performance in Pyongyang, but ended up arriving in South Korea after getting involved in an unexpected incident. While going through many ups and downs in the South, even falling victim to cheats, she hoped to return to her home. But she needed money to re-enter North Korea. So she began to look after Cho Dae-ja, a former bar hostess who raised her three sons alone. The defector gradually changed the family members, who were suffering from their own emotional scars. The director says he wanted to remind the audience once again of the painful reality of a divided Korea, and to reveal a cross section of South Korean society through the play.

The play describes South Korean society as seen from a North Korean woman. The play’s lead character, Mok-ran, reminds us of what South Korean people have lost in their capitalist society, such as regard for other people, kindness and a pure heart. Thanks to her, the South Korean family members come to accept the ideal values and live better lives. I staged this play to encourage the audience members to ponder the meaning of unification if they seek a happier life.

But it wasn’t easy at all to produce the play because it deals with the sensitive issue of North Korean defectors. Actors and actresses say they had a hard time performing their roles since the theme of North Korean defectors was rather unfamiliar to them. But the play isn’t entirely dark or tragic, unlike some films and novels featuring the same theme. In the play, North Korean songs and dances are kept intact so the story of people from the two Koreas can be approached in a new and interesting way. Also, North Korean culture, which South Korean people find very different from theirs, is well expressed in the drama to amuse the audience in a distinctive way.

Unlike other plays describing inter-Korean issues, this drama shows a number of exciting North Korean songs and dances. They are really fun and interesting. North Korean people sing South Korean pop songs, simply changing the lyrics. That is, many South Korean songs have been adapted to North Korean circumstances. For example, South Korean singer Choi Jin-hee’s hit song “The Maze of Love” is sung by North Koreans who changed its title to “The Rising Sun in Baekdu.” Such songs are introduced here in an amusing way.

Through a North Korean defector’s life, the play helps the audience reflect on the reality of their divided homeland. We hope the play will awaken many more people to the importance of unification and the defector issue.