A U.S. expert speculates that renewed retaliation by China against South Korea over its fortified relations with the United States may push Seoul to lean toward joining a U.S.-led missile defense system.

Scott Snyder, senior fellow for Korea studies at the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations, said in an article posted on the council's website that China has regarded South Korea as a weak link among the U.S. Asian alliance and could be tempted to pursue policies aimed at magnifying differences between Washington and Seoul.

Snyder said that Chinese media outlets have criticized South Korea’s efforts to join U.S.-led initiatives such as the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework and the “Chip 4” dialogue. 

This culminated early June when Chinese ambassador to Seoul Xing Haiming publicly said that “those who bet on China’s loss will surely regret their decision in the future."

But he said that such moves by China may have unintended consequences such as removing Seoul’s remaining inhibitions about normalizing the U.S. deployment of Terminal High Altitude Air Defense (THAAD) batteries on the Korean Peninsula, or boosting trilateral security cooperation with the U.S. and Tokyo.

Snyder said that the Yoon Suk Yeol administration may become more inclined to participate in developing a regional missile defense system or enhancing multilateral defense cooperation, steps that China attempted to discourage in talks with the previous Moon Jae-in administration.