Lee Myung-bak of the conservative opposition Grand National Party won the 17th presidential election on December 19, 2007. It will be the first time a conservative takes the helm of state after 10 years of liberal rule. Attention is now being paid to how Lee’s election to the presidency will influence future inter-Korean ties. For the past ten years, South Korea has been governed by two liberal presidents, Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun, both of which advocated relatively pro-North Korean policies. In contrast, president-elect Lee Myung-bak is expected to place top priority on national interest and take a pragmatic approach toward Pyongyang, signaling a significant change in Seoul’s North Korea policy. Here’s Prof. Ryu Gil-jae from the University of North Korean Studies explaining the major factors that may affect inter-Korean relations in 2008.

The December presidential election ended 10 years of liberal rule and will bring a power shift in domestic politics. After coming to power, the traditionally conservative Grand National Party is expected to overhaul the so-called sunshine policy upheld by the preceding liberal governments. Before and after winning the presidential election, president-elect Lee Myung-bak expressed his will to mend his predecessors’ North Korea policy. Also, the nuclear issue will greatly affect this year’s inter-Korean relations. If the security issue proceeds smoothly, South-North relations will be less subject to a power transfer in South Korea and develop in a positive way. If the nuke issue remains locked in stalemate or ends in a failure, it will highly likely worsen regional security, not to mention inter-Korea ties. The inauguration of the new government in South Korea and the nuclear issue are the two major variables in influencing inter-Korean relations this year.

As expected, South-North relations this year will likely depend on progress in North Korea’s nuclear dismantlement. President-elect Lee Myung-bak’s North Korea policy prioritizes Pyongyang’s denuclearization under the advocacy of pragmatism. Lee thinks that his predecessors have blindly engaged the North without seeking anything in return. Observers say that his pragmatic “give-and-take” policy toward the North will set forth a new paradigm for inter-Korean ties. However, they also predict that he will not drastically change existing North Korean policies. Instead, Lee is expected to use a carrot-and-stick approach properly and request the North to do something in return, when necessary, in the course of prompting the reclusive state to move toward reform and openness.

The nuclear issue has been deadlocked, as North Korea missed an important deadline by delaying the disablement of its nuclear facilities until as late as February. If the North successfully completes the second-phase implementation of disablement and declaration and move toward the third stage of nuclear dismantlement, the incoming South Korean administration will carry out the previous agreements signed by the current government after it is inaugurated on February 25. If the nuke issue fails to make progress in the next couple of months, however, it may be difficult to implement the inter-Korean accords.

As Prof. Ryu explained, the most crucial issue of inter-Korean relations is North Korea’s disarmament. Lee Myung-bak also said that economic cooperation between the two Koreas would be able to start in earnest only after North Korea terminates its nuclear weapons programs. Before the presidential election, Lee promised to raise North Korea’s per capita income to 3,000 US dollars over the next ten years, if he wins the presidency, on the condition that Pyongyang gives up its nuclear programs and the two Koreas achieve a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula. It is called the “non-nuclear, open 3,000 policy.” He has yet to present detailed implementation measures, but his core North Korea policy entails the formulation of practical and reasonable plans and the development of inter-Korean ties through the economy. Prof. Ryu also says that the Lee Myung-bak government will seek to strengthen the South Korea-U.S. alliance even further when dealing with the nuke issue.

The nuclear standoff has now pushed both the U.S. and North Korea to a dead end. The Lee Myung-bak administration is determined to resolve the nuke issue by cementing cooperation with U.S. That means sharing of diplomatic roles between Seoul and Washington. In other words, the U.S. may put more pressure on Pyongyang, while South Korea will provide economic aid to the North in the process of inducing the country to terminate its nuclear programs. To assume their respective roles but still voice the same opinions, close cooperation between South Korea and the U.S. is essential.

Regarding the nuclear issue, the upcoming Seoul government will seek to maintain the six-party dialogue frame, while actively supporting bilateral negotiations between North Korea and the U.S. The new government is expected to reinforce the South Korea-U.S. alliance in order not to be excluded from the North Korea-U.S. dialogue process. Meanwhile, many are wondering whether various agreements reached during the 2007 inter-Korean summit will be put into action as planned. Prof. Ryu explains.

I think the new South Korean government may reconsider some of those agreements, including the establishment of peace and cooperation belt around the Northern Limit Line in the West Sea, the controversial inter-Korean maritime border. Some military agreements may also face difficulty, as North Korea made unreasonable requests during the recent inter-Korean defense ministers’ talks and the general-level talks. For the most part, however, the Lee government will be committed to implementing the accords.

Along with the nuclear crisis, the issue of South Korean prisoners of war and those allegedly kidnapped by North Korea is another stumbling block in the way of inter-Korean ties. How will South Korea handle this matter in 2008?

The thorny issue has remained unsettled for a long time. Basically, North Korea flatly denies the existence of South Korean prisoners of war and abductees being held in the North. The Seoul government knows well that it cannot simply ask the North to repatriate them. Considering the oppressive North Korean regime, it is almost impossible for the victims to explicitly say that the North Korean authorities have detained them against their will. And there are few ways, if any, to prove the fact. However, the humanitarian issue is related to the South Korean government’s basic duty to protect its nationals. It must continue to raise this issue and request the North to return them to South Korea. Seoul may provide economic compensation to the North, if necessary.

This year, the South Korean political community will see a power transfer after ten years of liberal rule. President-elect Lee’s pragmatic and economically-centered North Korea policy will likely dominate the overall inter-Korean ties. In 2008, the two Koreas should refrain from creating friction but establish win-win relations instead. 　 [Interview] N. Korean Defector-Turned-Businessman Runs a Food Company
Phone calls are pouring into the office of ‘Baekdu Food,’ located in Tong-jin, Kimpo City in Gyeonggi Province. The food company, looking like a normal factory in appearance, is actually a community of North Korean defectors. Today, we’ll meet with Lee Chun-sam, a representative of the company.

Baekdu Food was founded by seven North Korean defectors in June of 2000. At first, we didn’t come up with the name ‘Baekdu,’ but one of our acquaintances recommended that name, saying that Mt. Baekdu is the highest mountain in North Korea. He wanted us to establish a top company with the symbolic name. I think the name goes well with our image.

The seven founding members of the food company came to know each other at a gathering of North Korean defectors. The newcomers decided to found a company to succeed in the capitalist South Korean society. Having no special skills, they came up with food products made of elm tree leaves. They remembered that North Koreans would treat guests with powdered tea from the elm tree leaves. They made noodles and flour from the leaves and supplied them to restaurants and large discount stores. After much trial and error, the company finally surpassed the break-even point in 2006.

I would say tasting is worth a thousand words. Food cannot deceive the palate of people. Once consumers taste our food, they immediately recognize that we, North Koreans, use high-quality ingredients. Sales of our food products have been increasing, but we hope we can do better.

In the initial stage, many consumers purchased the food out of pity for the North Korean newcomers. However, the food items became famous for their pure ingredients, completely free from seasonings or artificial preservatives. ‘Baekdu Food’ has continued to grow day by day, since it posted over 1 million dollars of sales last year. Currently, the company has 33 employees, and 15 of them are North Korean defectors. To provide opportunities to Northern defectors who have a hard time adjusting to South Korean society, the company leaves its door wide open for them.

Many North Korean defectors work very hard to run their own business. In fact, it’s very challenging for adult North Koreans, like me, to do business in South Korea where culture is so different from that of North Korea. No wonder only a handful of North Korean defectors have been successful in business. What’s why I want to develop this company and establish it as a model firm for North Korean expatriates here in the South. I hope to show them that we, North Koreans, can do it, and help them build self-confidence. Also, I’d like to create programs dedicated to assisting them to earn their own living. I understand their plight and sufferings better than any other person, so I think I can manage those programs well. I also hope to contribute to easing cultural estrangement between North and South Koreans.

Mr. Lee is like a big brother for North Korean defectors who have resettled here in South Korea. Here’s hoping that ‘Baekdu Food’ will be able to play a big role in helping the newcomers better assimilate to South Korean society.