The Samsung Economic Research Institute, one of the major private think tanks in South Korea, has released a report on security conditions of the Korean Peninsula in the first quarter of this year. To ensure objective reviews and a more accurate prediction of future developments in the region, the institute has conducted surveys on 50 diplomatic experts in South Korea, the U.S., China, Japan and Russia. Based on the survey results, it has released the ‘Korean Peninsula Security Index,’ an indicator of security outlooks for this politically volatile region, eight times since November 2005. Here’s Dr. Dong Yong-seung, the chief researcher of the institute, to explain the latest findings.

The ‘Korean Peninsula Security Index,’ based on a scale of 1 to 100, measures the overall security conditions in the region. A reading above 50 indicates the security conditions have been relatively stable or improved. An index below 50 means the opposite. The index in the first quarter of 2008 stood above 50, reflecting that the security conditions have been stable on the whole. The index has dropped a little, compared to that of the fourth quarter of 2007, but still managed to stay above 50.

The upward revision in the index of the first three months of this year shows high expectations for improved relations between South Korea and the U.S., with the inauguration of the conservative Lee Myung-bak government. By area, low marks were given to inter-Korean relations and the possibility of a peaceful solution to the nuclear issue.

One of the results I find interesting is that the ‘North Korea factor’ had received relatively high marks during the rule of the previous government. The ‘North Korea factor’ includes inter-Korean ties, economic cooperation between South and North Korea, and relations between North Korea and the U.S. Also in the past, both the ‘China factor’ and the ‘Russia factor’ were evaluated positively, while the ‘Japan factor,’ measuring the relations between South Korea and Japan, was given the lowest mark. The South Korea-U.S. relations were also graded poorly. After the inauguration of the Lee Myung-bak government, however, the scores have reversed. The North Korea factor received the lowest point and the U.S. factor, the highest mark, mirroring the exact diplomatic situation surrounding South Korea. The South Korea-Japan relations also seem to show signs of improvement, following President Lee’s Japan visit.

It seems the research institute gauges various factors influencing regional security. It is most notable that this year’s evaluation of those factors is in stark contrast to that of an earlier report. The shift has much to do with the new South Korean government, which took office in February. Unlike the previous Roh Moo-hyun administration, the incumbent government attaches great importance to the South Korea-U.S. alliance, and it has no intention of sacrificing the South Korea-U.S. relations to save the inter-Korean ties. Also notably, the Japan factor was marked positively, a major shift from the previous assessment. But South Korea and Japan are still divided on thorny issues, such as Japan’s claim of territorial rights to the small islets in the East Sea and Korean women who were forced to serve as sex slaves of the Japanese military during World War II. Experts say these long and controversial issues may continue to affect the security environment. But Dr. Dong stresses the North Korea factor merits the greatest attention of all.
The North Korea factor doesn’t seem to be very good. But the factors involving the U.S., Japan and even China are improving, boding well for relatively stable security conditions in the region. The relations between North Korea and the U.S. are expected to improve or remain stable at least, since both sides are in desperate need of finding a breakthrough in their nuclear standoff. Many experts anticipate some positive developments, such as the resumption of the six-party nuclear negotiations within the next three months and a completed declaration of North Korea’s nuclear programs. So, a positive evaluation may be made regarding the nuclear issue.

Compared to the influence of the U.S., Japan and North Korea on the security index, the China factor seems to be rather insignificant. This is partly because the Seoul government seeks to focus more on relations with the U.S. and Japan. And Chinese influence isn’t likely to be seen in the future. By the same token, the Russia factor hasn’t influenced regional security very much. Dr. Dong now describes a potential factor that could significantly affect the security conditions in the second half of this year.

We have to watch how inter-Korean relations may evolve. In a series of scathing remarks, North Korea has lashed out at Seoul, with the North Korean military describing the current situation as a ‘second Korean War.’ South Korea hasn’t shown any particular reaction to Pyongyang’s defiant attitude. President Lee Myung-bak has recently proposed restarting inter-Korean dialogue and establishing liaison offices in the capitals of the two Koreas, but North Korea flatly rejected the offer. There are a lot of tasks to deal with before the two sides patch up their relationship. I think possible setbacks from the soured inter-Korean ties may be the biggest factor jeopardizing the security conditions on the Korean Peninsula.

In conclusion, Seoul’s task is to improve relations with North Korea and to play a role in resolving the nuclear issue. Inter-Korean ties and the nuclear issue are one of the core factors that may determine the security environment in the region. If inter-Korean relations remain strained for a long time, they will be a detriment to regional security and stability. It’s hoped that the authorities of both South and North Korea will resume their stalled dialogue very soon. 　 [Interview] N. Korean Expatriate Helps N. Korean Defectors Resettle in S. Korea I’m from South Hamgyeong Province, North Korea. During the Korean War, I enlisted in a South Korean army division, which had been marching north, and came to South Korea later. I was 17 years old at the time. All alone in South Korea, I worked as a farm laborer, a mechanic and a taxi driver. I engaged in all sorts of hard work. North Korean defectors coming to the South always remind me of the old, difficult days when I was parted from my family. I started taking care of North Koreans who studied in Eastern Europe and defected to South Korea in the late 1980s and the early 1990s. I have since helped as many North Koreans as possible. The Association of Supporters for North Korean Defectors asked me to assume the role of president of the group. I would have turned down the offer, if it had not been a defector-related group. I believed it was my mission to help the North Korean expatriates and I decided to accept the proposal.

That was Kim Il-ju, who has served as the president of the Association of Supporters for North Korean Defectors for the last three years. It is rather challenging for the 77-year-old man to manage the group, but as a North Korean homesick for his country, he has been committed to helping other North Korean defectors as much as he can. Mr. Kim tells us more about the association.

It was set up in 1997 under the Unification Ministry. When North Korean defectors enter the South via a third country, they are required to receive training for two months at Hanawon, a rehabilitation center for the newcomers from the North. After completing the training course, they become the members of this association. Volunteers of the association help them settle here in South Korea.

The group received a government budget of 1.6 million dollars last year. It spends about 1.1 million dollars every year helping the defectors find rental houses and provides some 400-thousand dollars to private organizations devoted to supporting older people and teenagers who come from the North without their parents. But due to the ever-increasing number of Northern defectors coming to South Korea, the budget is still extraordinarily deficient. Mr. Kim often solicits contributions from his acquaintances in the National Assembly and the heads of provincial governments. But he says he finds the work rewarding.

I’m happy to see the newcomers live independently in a new South Korean society. When I asked a married couple from the North if they have any problems, they proudly said they were running a small grocery store, earning more than 6,000 dollars a month. Many Northern students have entered large companies after graduating college, and they are very proud of their achievement. I’m glad to see them resettle here successfully.

Many North Korean defectors are adapting to South Korean society well, but some others fail to grow roots in the new environment. Kim feels immensely happy to see the successful newcomers, but it saddens him to see the unfortunate Northerners complaining of their difficult lives here in the South. He plans to devise more diversified training programs for the North Korean expatriates so that they can settle more easily.

We have developed a new program, named the ‘Korean Leaders Academy.’ The name contains our wish that every North Korean defector will become a leader in a given field. We offer the program on every third Saturday and Sunday. Older North Korean expatriates who left the North long ago, just like me, have no idea how North Korea has changed. Likewise, the defectors know little about how democracy and a market economy work in South Korea. It is important to help the newcomers get accustomed to the new concepts in the course of preparing for reunification of Korea. South and North Koreans share the same tradition, customs and history. On this common ground, people in the two Koreas should become one. I believe it’s a shortcut to unification.

Kim believes the two Koreas will be unified again only when people on both sides of the border become one in the name of love. Hopefully, his heartfelt devotion will contribute to advancing the reunification of his divided homeland.