September 9th this year marked the 60th anniversary of the founding of the North Korean government. All the high-ranking officials got together to celebrate the occasion, but North Korean leader Kim Jong-il never showed up. Given that the top leader never failed to attend the landmark occasion in previous years, Kim’s absence is considered very unusual, spawning rumors that the reclusive leader is seriously ill. The National Intelligence Service in Seoul said during a parliamentary session that Kim Jong-il had undergone surgery for a stroke by foreign medical staff and is recovering. Diplomatic sources say his health condition is not good enough to engage in outdoor activities, but he has no particular problem with speech and still maintains power in the nation. Here’s Dr. Hong Hyun-ik from the Sejong Research Institute with more details.

Intelligence sources indicate that Kim Jong-il has recovered enough to brush his teeth himself. But Kim is known to still have difficulty using his arms and legs, and that was why he didn’t appear at a military parade on the September 9th North Korean regime foundation day. It is also speculated that it was necessary for this great, idolized leader not to reveal his weakness, like letting someone hold his arm for support, for fear that his health failure might agitate North Korean people. If Kim manages to recuperate, he may make a public appearance around the 60th anniversary of the establishment of the North’s Workers Party on October 10th.

Despite the keen global attention to Kim’s ill health, international events have been held in Pyongyang as scheduled, suggesting there’s no significant change in Kim’s health condition and he is recovering well. Meanwhile, there has been rising speculation and concern about a possible political struggle inside the communist regime. Kim will have to govern his country from his sick bed until he is back to normal, and the person who delivers his instructions to the party, government and military on his behalf will influence future power succession. Dr. Hong explains how the succession battle may evolve.

Kim Jong-il was designated as his father Kim Il-sung’s official successor in the 1970s. He was groomed for the post for 20 years before he finally took office. Growing up as the unrivaled heir to the isolated country, junior Kim gradually found a way to control the nation’s power elite, backed by his father. So he was able to inherit the leadership smoothly when his father died in 1994. But the situation is different now. None of his three sons have been prepared to take the helm of the regime, and there’s doubt another father-son succession of power will be able to happen again. Currently, power is concentrated on the Workers Party and the National Defense Commission. Kim has not treated anyone—his sons or other influential figures—as the nation’s No.2 leader. Many predict that Pyongyang may be ruled by a collective leadership under a symbolic leader, who may be one of Kim’s three sons or Kim Young-nam, the president of the Supreme People’s Assembly. In the mid-to-long term, however, they could be embroiled in a power struggle, and one of them may eventually assume supreme power.

Now there’s speculation about how Kim’s leadership will be inherited-- through the third-generation power transfer or a collective leadership with a deep military involvement. U.S. newspapers, such as the New York Times and the Washington Post, predict that the military will come to the front in the post-Kim Jong-il era. South Korean diplomatic experts agree on the intensified role of the military, but they think the military will focus more on preventing a possible political vacuum. While the North Korean leader is ill in bed, Pyongyang is likely to use its energies to keep its regime stable, rather than addressing diplomatic concerns, such as the nuclear issue and the improvement of relations with the U.S. Against this background, the status of North Korea’s military will be ultimately bolstered. So, how will this situation influence relations between South and North Korea?
So far, the North Korean leader has made important decisions himself. It is Kim Jong-il who can set the policy line of the nuclear issue and inter-Korean ties in a positive direction. If the military or the party assumes the role of decision making, it’s hard to imagine North Korea will improve the relations with Seoul and with Washington or make progress in the nuclear issue. In this sense, Kim’s recovery is important in dealing with the diplomatic issues in a positive way. It may sound strange, but a quick recovery of the North Korean dictator may help stabilize the security conditions in the region.

The South Korean government has been trying to restore dialogue channels with North Korea recently, although it still remains firm on its tough position about the inter-Korean agreements reached under the two previous liberal governments. Seoul has become more active in allowing private-level exchanges, which have been limited following the shooting death of a South Korean tourist at the North’s Mt. Geumgang resort, and resuming food aid for North Korea, which Seoul has frowned upon until recently. South Korea seeks to maintain a minimum dialogue channel with Pyongyang in preparation for emergencies in North Korea. It also expects repeated visits to North Korea by South Korean private groups will prop up inter-Korean relations. Meanwhile, the already deadlocked six-party nuclear negotiations will unlikely move forward, due to the North Korean leader’s health problems.

Contrary to Pyongyang’s expectations, the U.S. did not remove it from the list of state sponsors of terrorism on August 11, but called for North Korea to accept a rigorous mechanism to verify its nuclear declaration. In a defiant move, the North stopped disabling its nuclear facilities and is now attempting to restore them. Under these circumstances, Kim Jong-il’s ill health is expected to influence the six-party talks negatively. Also, it will be rather hard to improve North Korea-U.S. relations before Kim recovers, although President Bush hopes to pass on a positive diplomatic development to the next U.S. president. But I still don’t think bilateral relations will worsen or break down.

The United States made a new proposal about verification of the North’s nuclear declaration late last month, but the North has yet to offer any response. Unfortunately, the six-party nuclear talks have virtually come to a halt. U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said last week he hopes any illness of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il will not affect the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Many have the same hope that the security crisis in the region will be resolved without too much difficulty. 　 [Interview] Local Editor Introduces N. Korean Classical Literature to S. Korea
….How are you, North Korean friends? It must be winter already. Do you have enough food and clothes? I imagine you study hard and enjoy your life there. Maybe you are wondering how we are doing in South Korea. The national division is just frustrating … Well, this passage was written in 1948. It is sweet and warm, isn’t it?

While working on this literary project, I tried to find common grounds that South and North Korea share. I believe I’m accustomed to North Korea since I’ve read so many North Korean books. But many times, I myself couldn’t understand some North Korean elements, which made me feel a sense of estrangement. I think other ordinary citizens will find it even more difficult to understand North Korean literature. So it is all the more necessary for South Koreans to read a lot of North Korean books. Unification may come about suddenly. It’s anybody’s guess when the two Koreas will be unified. I think it’s absolutely necessary for South Koreans to prepare for an unexpected unification. And reading North Korean books may be part of the preparation efforts.

We referred to North Korea’s ‘Collection of Joseon Classical Literature’ when publishing this new book. It was named the ‘Collection of National Classical Literature’ to reflect our hope that it will contribute to the integration of South and North Korea, which have been separated for over sixty years. We also hoped to remind people of what both sides had shared before. We examined how North Korea had been compiling old documents about literature, philosophy or history from the Three Kingdoms’ Period and the Joseon Era. And I thought literature would appeal to people more easily.

The first edition of the literary collection published in 2004 was about 18th century scholar Park Ji-won’s work, ‘Jehol Diary.’ The book has since introduced excellent compositions of other scholars and writers in the late Joseon period as well as traditional tales and folk stories. The publisher has recently issued the 34th volume of the collection. It will soon publish the next edition containing popular folk songs. The literary series, which has continued for almost four years, is cited as a successful inter-Korean exchange project combining the North’s literary contents and the South’s publishing technology.

The collection was originally issued by a publishing firm in Pyongyang. But we couldn’t’ make direct contact with the North Korean publisher, due to the difficult inter-Korean relations. Instead, we talk to the Foundation of Inter-Korea Cooperation in Seoul, which works as an agent collecting royalties from South Korean publishers and broadcasters and deliver them to North Korea. It is the foundation that contacts with the North’s copyrights authorities. And the authorities talk to the North Korean publisher. Actually, we have to communicate with the North, like sending a document by fax, through another pro-unification group, the Korean Council for Reconciliation and Cooperation. What a complicated procedure! It is said we can have contact with all South Koreans if we talk with only two people, and just seven people are enough to reach all the people in the whole world. But it’s so hard to meet with officials of the North Korean publisher just across the border. I’ve sent many letters to them, but it was also very hard to receive their reply.

It seems pretty difficult to communicate with North Korea. Also, the compilation work wasn’t easy at all. It took two years for Nam to review the first edition of the collection alone. Many are wondering who’s going to read the thick, difficult classical works. She is well aware of the criticism, but profits don’t really matter to her. She wanted to bring in the literature collected in the North and preserve it here in the South as a precious national asset. She hopes to continue to utilize North Korea’s classical literature and publish a new book for teenagers, which shows the true identity of the divided country.

While working on this literary project, I tried to find common grounds that South and North Korea share. I believe I’m accustomed to North Korea since I’ve read so many North Korean books. But many times, I myself couldn’t understand some North Korean elements, which made me feel a sense of estrangement. I think other ordinary citizens will find it even more difficult to understand North Korean literature. So it is all the more necessary for South Koreans to read a lot of North Korean books. Unification may come about suddenly. It’s anybody’s guess when the two Koreas will be unified. I think it’s absolutely necessary for South Koreans to prepare for an unexpected unification. And reading North Korean books may be part of the preparation efforts.

Nam hopes that the future generation will not regard national division as something permanent but cherish the language, dreams, values and thoughts their ancestors shared with each other. This may be one small way to help people in the two Koreas get closer to each other.