South and North Korea have been locked in fierce confrontation for more than 15 months since the sinking of the South Korean corvette Cheonan, which North Korea torpedoed in March last year. Amid escalating tension, inter-Korean relations have deteriorated further when North Korea disclosed secret inter-Korean contacts for bilateral summits early last month. As a result, the prospects for inter-Korean ties in the second half of the year still remain murky. More recently, North Korea’s top military command issued a spokesman’s statement on June 29 and threatened a military retaliation, taking issue with slogans by South Korean frontline units. In the statement, North Korea urged the South to punish those involved. Dr. Jeon Hyeon-jun at the Korea Institute for National Unification takes note of the spokesman’s statement.

There were three higher-level government statements issued by North Korea in the past—in 1993, 1999 and 2003. But this is the first time that a spokesman’s statement was released. It seems the North Korean military and the ruling elite believe that they should never tolerate the South Korean military units’ slogans that criticize their dear leader Kim Jong-il and the late North Korean founder Kim Il-sung, both of who are held in the highest esteem by North Korean people. In general, government statements were released when it comes to foreign relations, the nuclear issue and the normalization of diplomatic ties. The level of a spokesman’s statement is not considered as high as that of a government statement, but North Korea seems to have concluded that this issue merits serious discussion.

In a similarly hostile move, North Korea mobilized 100-thousand citizens and held a massive rally in Pyongyang on July 4 to denounce the South Korean government. North Korea’s mounting offensives against Seoul are interpreted as an attempt to consolidate internal unity and shift the responsibility for aggravating inter-Korean ties to South Korea.

The North Korean military wants to show that it will never sit idle if any forces are attempting to hurt or move against Kim Jong-il. By demonstrating loyalty and a fierce determination to fight to the end, it is trying to prevent the enemy from threatening the nation’s top leader. I think North Korea is also intent on prodding the Lee Myung-bak government into changing its North Korea policy to its own advantage. As a tit-for-tat strategy to respond to Seoul’s hard-line policy toward North Korea, Pyongyang claims it is not North Korea but South Korea that is to be held accountable for the strained inter-Korean relations.

Experts predict North Korea will continue exploiting the current deadlock in inter-Korean relations to its advantage for the time being. Amid the continuous pressure from North Korea, a subtle change has been sensed in regional diplomacy involving the six-party nuclear talks. On July 1, U.S. President Barack Obama picked former North Korea policy coordinator Wendy Sherman as the Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs. Sherman is a representative advocate of dialogue with North Korea under the Bill Clinton administration. Experts raise the possibility of a change in the Obama government’s North Korea policy.

As a North Korea policy coordinator under the Clinton administration, Wendy Sherman assisted then-Secretary of State Madeleine Albright from 1997 to 2001. She is known as an official who is well versed in Korean Peninsula issues and also one of the close aides to current Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. There are signs of a possible change in Washington’s North Korea policy. With the six-party talks still up in the air, many point out that it’s time for the U.S. to change its North Korea policy. Some even predict that little progress in the North Korean nuclear issue will deal a blow to President Obama, who is seeking reelection. To improve the situation, Washington may change its policy line, with Wendy Sherman in the lead.

Diplomatic experts are also watching China’s moves. China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei said on June 28 that it would be necessary to resume the six-party nuclear talks at an early date while pushing for bilateral and multilateral dialogue at the same time. That is, China places more emphasis on bilateral and multilateral talks than on inter-Korean dialogue. Some speculate that Beijing is moving to walk out of the so-called three-step process proposed by South Korea. Under the proposal, South and North Korea would hold denuclearization talks in the first stage, followed by North Korea-U.S. dialogue as the second step and the resumption of the six-party talks in the final phase. Some also predict that inter-Korean ties and North Korea-U.S. relations will face a rough time if North Korea comes to depend on China more heavily following North Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s China visit in May. With major powers showing signs of a shift from their previous diplomatic stances, how will inter-Korean relations unfold in the future?

Generally, North Korea has tended to lean toward China when relations with South Korea or U.S. worsened. But Pyongyang cannot rely on China forever. North Korea must apologize for its military provocations against South Korea and promise no recurrence of such attacks in order to advance inter-Korean relations to the next step. But it is unlikely the North will do so anytime soon. With Pyongyang showing no signs of changing its attitude, Seoul, for its part, finds it difficult to make progress in inter-Korean ties. Therefore, we are not very optimistic about the prospects for bilateral relations in the second half of the year. But all the involved countries—the two Koreas, China, Japan, the U.S. and Russia—seem to agree that it is undesirable to prolong this unstable situation on the Korean Peninsula. I imagine they will be more committed to resolving the problems from next year at least, from a long-term prospective.

There are few signs that the clouds gathering over inter-Korean relations will clear away during the latter half of the year. On a positive note, however, some participants of the six-party talks seem to be showing flexibility. We’ll be watching whether and how these developments will have a positive influence on inter-Korean tension and regional diplomacy.


[Interview] N. Korean Defector to Direct Education Center for Unification
First, I’d like to express my gratitude. I’m happy but I feel more like something weighs heavy on my shoulders. I’d say this post was given to all North Korean defectors, not to an individual named Cho Myung-chul. My nomination is a sign of the hope and expectations that North Korean defectors, too, will be allowed to directly involve themselves in state management and have opportunities to work together with South Koreans for unification. As I said, this job is given to more than 20-thousand North Korean newcomers here, so I feel more responsible. I think I have to fulfill my duties successfully not to disappoint them.

With more than 20-thousand North Korean defectors now in South Korea, the first such newcomer has gained a high-ranking government position. Last month, economist Cho Myung-chul was appointed as the director of the Education Center for Unification, a research institute dedicated to formulating and supporting the government’s unification policy. Through open recruitment involving interviews and a special assessment for high-ranking officials, the government decided to assign Cho as the institute’s head in recognition of his expertise. The new director revealed his strong ambitions that he would contribute to educating the public on unification in order to create a favorable environment for unification, as a person who experienced the North Korean system himself.

I think we should conduct education on unification in three different directions. First, we will let the public know the reality of North Korea just the way it is. Secondly, security education will be provided. And lastly, we’ll envision the future of Korea--integrity and unification of the two Koreas, hopefully with North Korean people. We’ll carry out these three tasks in a balanced way. Also, it is important to provide education tailored to region and class. In this information age, we’ll also make full use of social network services and cyber education so the public can learn more about unification in an easier and more interesting way.

Born in Pyongyang, Cho graduated from the prestigious Kim Il Sung University. After graduation, he followed an elite course and obtained a doctorate in business administration. He served as the professor of economics at Kim Il Sung University before escaping North Korea in 1994. While he was a professor, he had a chance to study in China. That was a turning point of his life. As he enjoyed greater freedom in China he realized that the privileges offered to him in his home country were nothing but a sham. He became acutely aware of the value of freedom.

The most fundamental difference between South and North Korea is freedom. Freedom means everything. Let me give you an example. If you want to go to Busan today to meet your friend, you just go there. But in North Korea, you can’t. You are required to apply for a pass in advance, and it usually takes 15 days or a month to receive the pass. Individuals can’t choose their own occupation. They are not allowed to move or choose the place they want to live, either. In a word, North Koreans cannot enjoy basic freedom we take it for granted in everyday life. With freedom, people can engage in economic activities, create something, accumulate wealth and achieve national development. In North Korea, however, it is the state that does all these tasks. It is freedom that makes the distinction between South and North Korea.

After arriving in South Korea, Cho has participated in various activities as a researcher of North Korea. He previously worked for the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy. As a North Korea expert who knows much about the highest ranking members of Pyongyang’s political elite and the internal situation in the North, he has released in-depth analyses and forecasts about developments in North Korea. In fact, he shed tears alone from time to time in the initial state of resettlement here, due to homesickness and the limitations he faced as a North Korean defector. For that reason, he worked even harder and tried to overcome those difficulties. He says the rigorous efforts made him what he is today.

Of course, there were times when I missed my parents, siblings, relatives and friends across the border. But I was lucky, compared to other defectors, because there were so many things to do. While occupying myself with the tasks at hand, I had no time for thinking about other things. My busy life prevented me from feeling frustration, and I’ve been able to carry out many jobs. It’s important for defectors to have a proper understanding of their situation. It is so fortunate for them to gain freedom in South Korea. It is a great benefit. Defectors should think this way. Also, they should spare no effort to seize the opportunity to achieve success. They should always be willing to learn something, make greater efforts and make a contribution to this society as a way of repay what they have received. Such an attitude is important.

Cho hopes for more government support and a favorable social atmosphere where defectors are treated warmly. We’re pinning high hopes on the new director of the Education Center for Unification, who will play a bridging role in unifying South and North Korea.