A missile expert says that North Korea is unlikely to develop a solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile(ICBM) within the next decade.
 
Michael Elleman, senior fellow for missile defense at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, presented the assessment in his article posted on the North Korea monitoring Web site “38 North” on Friday.
 
Elleman based the assessment on his analysis of photos of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s recent visit to the Chemical Material Institute of the Academy of Defense Sciences.
 
Two large posters captured in the photos showed conceptual illustrations of a new missile, the Pukguksong-3 and the Hwasong-13, as well as the technical parameters for their composite materials.
 
Elleman said that the large bronze-colored vessel being examined by Kim Jong-un is an advanced, light-weight casing designed to house solid propellant, and a filament-winding machine seen in the background is presumed to be used to produce the composite-motor casing.
 
He said that it’s unclear if the machine can produce motor casings larger than a one-point-five meter diameter, and if not, North Korea will need to acquire a larger winding machine to produce motor casings large enough to power ICBMs.
 
Elleman noted the North's largest tested solid motor is the Pukguksong missile's first stage, which weighs six to seven tons, but an ICBM first-stage motor weighs around 20 tons.
 
He said that the step from producing six-ton motors to 20-ton motors requires seven to ten years.

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