Democrat Barack Obama has been elected the 44th president of the United States to become the first black president in the nation’s history. The revolutionary win for the 47-year-old first-term senator delivers a clear message to the whole world that the United States is not what it used to be. Promising political reforms in Washington, Obama has already pledged to withdraw troops from Iraq, carry out economic policies that will be different from those of the incumbent government and display a leadership of ‘negotiation’ by engaging in dialogue, even in dealing with the ‘axis of evil. The U.S. is expected to see many changes down the road. So, how will the result of the U.S. presidential election influence the diplomatic situation in Northeast Asia? Here’s Dr. Cho Seong-ryol from the Institute for National Security Strategy to explain.

Obama’s victory will put an end to unilateral diplomacy that has been upheld by the Bush administration for the last eight years. The incumbent U.S. government has strengthened its alliance with Japan, while containing China. But in the new Obama era, the role of China will be re-evaluated and North Korean issues will be approached differently. The renewed diplomacy will greatly influence the efforts toward peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula.

Diplomatic experts both at home and abroad predict that the eight-year-long Bush administration’s Korean Peninsula policy will inevitably face a drastic change, which will bring about opportunity and challenge at the same time. In the last decade, the governments of South Korea and the United States have experienced power shifts, often causing tricky diplomatic situations. When the Democratic Clinton government was directly negotiating with North Korea in the 1990s, the then-South Korean Kim Young-sam government stayed away from the North Korea-U.S. dialogue. Pyongyang made the most of its strategy of embracing the U.S. while sidelining Seoul at the time. The diplomatic mood began to soften in 2000, following the first inter-Korean summit under the Kim Dae-jung government in South Korea and the high-ranking officials’ exchange visits between North Korea and the U.S. at the end of the Clinton administration. But after the inauguration of the Bush government, the dialogue momentum burst like a bubble, and North Korea went as far as conducting a nuclear test, triggering another nuclear crisis. Now, many are wondering how president-elect Obama will deal with the thorny North Korean issues.

The Bush administration views the improvement of North Korea-U.S. relations as a gift from the progress in nuclear negotiations. On the other hand, Obama advocates direct dialogue with the North and seeks to draw the reclusive country to the international community by using the renewed North Korea-U.S. relations as leverage. President Bush removed North Korea from the list of state sponsors of terrorism on October 11, and it is possible that the second-step measures for dismantling North Korea’s nuclear programs will be completed as early as this year. If that happens, Pyongyang-Washington relations could improve quickly under the Obama presidency. Once the third-phase denuclearization talks begin, it is also possible that both North Korea and the U.S. may set up a representative office in the other’s capital as a diplomatic mission. I think the development will facilitate discussions about the establishment of a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.

Obama’s North Korea policy is characterized by ‘direct diplomacy.’ The president-elect has already expressed his will to hold dialogue even with dictatorial leaders, and he could attempt to induce North Korea to join the international community through bilateral or multilateral dialogues. And based on this, he is expected to seek to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula, normalize relations with North Korea and dissolve the Cold War structure in the region. So, how North Korea will react to the potential changes in the diplomatic scene? Dr. Cho continues to explain.
In a broad context, Pyongyang may consider Obama’s North Korea policy to be advantageous to its regime survival. When North Korea-U.S. ties improve, the North may request the U.S. or the international community to provide aid, which the nation had received from South Korea in the past. Then, the North won’t have to ask for aid from the Seoul government. Instead, the communist nation will continue to urge South Korea to soften its hostile attitude toward the North. Given this, even if Seoul proposes dialogue, North Korea won’t necessarily accept it. On the contrary, it will strongly encourage the South to change its North Korea policy. But it doesn’t mean that Obama will tolerate North Korea’s nuclear ambitions or overlook human rights abuses in the reclusive nation. The next U.S. government may take a softer stance in future negotiations, but North Korea will subsequently be pressured to fulfill its promise.

For Obama, the improvement of North Korea-U.S. ties isn’t a gift, but a means to dismantle the North’s nuclear programs and prompt the nation to become a normal state. That is how the new U.S. leader will approach North Korean issues and distinguish himself from his predecessor in dealing with the North. Many experts predict that North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, whose health is said to have seriously deteriorated, will be committed to new relations with the U.S. in order to lay the groundwork for normalizing ties with the U.S. before 2012, which has been designated the ‘opening year of a strong North Korea.’ If negotiations with the Obama government proceed smoothly, North Korea is expected to stick to its old strategy of improving ties solely with Washington while excluding South Korea.

North Korea has demanded that Seoul respect bilateral agreements reached at the two previous inter-Korean summits. Even if South Korea does so, the North will then ask Seoul to implement them faithfully. Moreover, it is possible that the North will also request the Seoul government to replace its diplomatic officials who formulated the current North Korea policy, which will be definitely hard for Seoul to accept. In this respect, it is unlikely that inter-Korean ties will be restored anytime soon. The deadlock in their relations will continue for the time being.

If North Korea keeps persisting in “having direct talks with the U.S. while sidelining the South,” the Seoul government will face public criticism that South Korea should restore its status as a major player regarding the Korean Peninsula issues. The government will then be urged to change its North Korea policy to mend inter-Korean ties. Meanwhile, some project a different outlook for North Korea-U.S. relations. The democratic U.S. government will employ its traditional strategy of engaging in bilateral dialogue with North Korea but it will also put sensitive issues, like North Korea’s human rights violations, on the table as well. So the normalization of the North Korea-U.S. ties will be a long and arduous journey. Whatever the prediction, North Korea and the U.S. are expected to improve their relations and South Korean officials should rack their brains to come up with appropriate measures to patch up the stalled inter-Korean ties as early as possible. 　 [Interview] Unification Education Center Opens in Seoul
Seoul citizens will be able to learn more about North Korea and the daily lives of North Korean people at a newly-opened education center. opened at Seo Seoul Life Science High School in Guro District, western Seoul, on October 29. The education center was established with a goal of helping ordinary citizens boost their understanding of North Korea, and to arouse public interest in unification issues in preparation for the future reunification of Korea. Similar institutes were set up in 12 cities across the nation, but it is the first education center of its kind opened in the capital.

The building has a floor space of 1,000 square meters. It has an exhibition room in the basement. A research room, a conference room, a video room and a seminar room are on the first floor, and a lecture hall is on the second floor. Here, about 1,000 North Korean items are on display. We’ve got permission to deal with North Korean goods. Here’s the Rodong Sinmun, which is North Korea’s main newspaper. We’ve had the paper on display since 2003, and this is the latest edition. Visitors can leaf through the newspaper.

This is Cho Hui-je, who has been teaching unification issues at this high school for 13 years. He guides us to the education center, which is filled with a huge amount of books and materials. A library is on the first floor and the second basement has a room of video materials. As Mr. Cho explained, some 1,000 daily goods used by North Korean residents are displayed at this education center. Visitors can also listen to North Korean broadcasting programs. In particular, North Korean clothes, food and houses have been reproduced in a miniature set, which is very popular with visitors.

We took special care of a North Korean classroom. It is a miniature classroom, but it is realistic enough. Look at this bell. Doesn’t it remind you of your old school days? To reproduce this classroom, we considered the advice of many people. The portraits of Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il are hung on the wall. Look at this sawdust box here. It may sound strange, but it is said North Koreans usually sprinkle sawdust when cleaning. Anyway, this miniature classroom shows what South Korean classrooms were like in the 1960s. We installed this set in order to help students better understand North Korean schools.

Seo Seoul Life Science High School is one of the unification education schools, designated by the Seoul Metropolitan Office of Education. The school’s library, which has 17,500 books about inter-Korean issues alone, was selected as a unification-specialized library last April. The school’s activities vary. It has developed its own educational programs for ten years. It often invites North Korean defectors to help local residents get the picture of the reality of North Korea, and it also held a music festival dedicated to bringing people in the two Koreas together. Thanks to its efforts and vast amount of North Korea-related materials, the education center is filled with visitors every day. And much of the credit should go to school director Cho Dong-rae. Mr. Cho, who has always been interested in inter-Korean issues, was greatly shocked to meet with North Korean scholars at an international conference 15 years ago. He had difficulty communicating with the North Koreans, despite the fact that they were speaking the same language. He felt an acute need to prepare seriously for unification. He has since used his own money to collect North Korea-related information and materials. And the education center is the result of his long dedication.

I’m proud of this education center, since it is approved by the Unification Ministry, where most North Korea-related policies are devised. In fact, it is very hard for institutions to collect information without government approval. We, too, had a very hard time financially in the past. But the government seems to have been impressed by the 15 years of our efforts. I’m glad that the center has now become a keystone to unification. People from all walks of life are allowed to visit here, and they are offered detailed explanations in each section. I believe visitors will be able to develop their own views on unification.