North Korea hinted at the possibility of a complete halt in inter-Korean ties recently, and the nation has begun to take concrete actions toward that end. The North Korean military authorities notified Seoul in a telephone message on November 12 that North Korea would restrict or block all overland passages through the military demarcation line starting December 1. The North’s Red Cross Society also said in a statement that the nation would cut off all direct telephone channels with South Korea at the truce village of Panmunjeom. It is very unusual that both the military and the Red Cross Society in the North are threatening South Korea simultaneously, boding ill for Pyongyang’s future moves. Experts speculate that the North’s warning that it will place tougher restrictions on traffic through the inter-Korean border is only a first-step measure aimed at pressuring Seoul, and the level of threat may increase in several phases. Here’s Professor Kim Yong-hyun from the North Korean Studies Department at Dongguk University to explain.

Regarding the stalled inter-Korean relations, North Korea is shifting the responsibility to the South Korean government. The North is also very displeased with and sensitive to the continued spread of anti-communist leaflets sent by South Korean civic groups and rampant speculation about North Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s poor health, as well as international criticism of the communist regime. Being driven into a corner, the North may take a second or third provocative action. Actually, the aggressive measures have been anticipated. North Korea’s intent on restricting overland passages shows the country could be considering a suspension of the Gaeseong industrial park project. During recent working-level military talks, North Korea expressed negative views on the operation of the industrial park. I think the ‘strict restriction of overland passages’ comment is targeted at South Koreans coming in and out of the industrial park.

North Korea’s aggressive moves are escalating tension in the industrial complex in Gaeseong. It is widely believed that the North won’t give up the inter-Korean joint business venture, the symbol of the communist nation’s policy of openness. But we cannot rule out the possibility that the panic-stricken nation may take extreme actions. Professor Kim explains what the Gaeseong project means to both Koreas.

The Gaeseong Park is a symbolic venue of inter-Korean cooperation and exchanges where South Korean businesspeople and North Korean residents operate factories together. From a military point of view, Gaeseong was one of the North’s main routes of attack during the Korean War. The route connecting Gaeseong and South Korea’s Munsan was the shortest way for the North Koran military to infiltrate Seoul. Therefore, the establishment of an industrial park at this site bears great significance in terms of settling peace and easing military tension on the Korean Peninsula.

The Gaeseong industrial complex has long been regarded as a successful model of co-prosperity of the two Koreas. As of the end of October this year, a total of 83 South Korean companies have advanced to the industrial park, and additional 45 firms are waiting for the entry. The total production from January of 2005 to September this year amounts to 460 million dollars. In particular, the textile and garment industry boasts high productivity, and preferential tariff benefits are provided. In terms of profitability, the Gaeseong Park is known as an excellent production base. Many are now wondering about potential losses from the shutdown of the industrial park, which is a worst-case scenario.

South Korea will suffer from both visible and invisible damage. The government has invested 85 million dollars to build basic infrastructures for the industrial park, and the figure will amount to 360 million dollars if the construction and facilities investment by South Korean companies is included. The problems won’t stop here, though. South Korean manufacturers may go out of business if they fail to fill orders on time. The closure of the Gaeseong Park means the virtual breakdown of inter-Korean relations. Security conditions will then deteriorate in the region and foreigners may avoid investment in Korea. In this respect, South Korean firms operating business at the Gaeseong industrial park aren’t the only victims. The whole Korean Peninsula will suffer additional heavy losses.

North Korea, too, will face enormous economic fallout if the complex is closed. North Korean laborers will lose out on a monthly wage of 70 dollars each, and the nation will be giving up the total wage income of 30 million dollars annually—an amount of money roughly similar to what the North earned from the Mt. Geumgang tour business that has been suspended temporarily. In other words, the Gaeseong project has been a major cash cow for North Korea. Also, shutting down the Gaeseong industrial park, a symbol of inter-Korean economic cooperation, will deal an even heavier blow to the Stalinist nation politically, since it could severely undermine North Korea’s credibility abroad. So, why is Pyongyang seeking tougher South Korea policy, despite all these negative factors?

North Korea is hypersensitive about the dropping of anti-communist leaflets in the nation by South Korean civic groups, amid rising speculation that its leader, Kim Jong-il, is ill. And Pyongyang is full of complaints about the Seoul government. By taking serious measures, the North is pressuring Seoul to honor agreements signed at the inter-Korean summits of 2000 and 2007. On the diplomatic front, the North Korean issue will likely be put on the back burner under the next U.S. government, since President-elect Obama seeks to concentrate more on issues related to Iraq and Afghanistan. North Korea’s recent provocative actions are also aimed at drawing Washington’s attention to Korean issues, including the nuclear standoff.

Following a series of hard-line measures from Pyongyang in recent weeks, the South Korean government has made conciliatory gestures. Seoul has decided to provide 3,000 tons of steel aid to the North, which has been delayed due to North Korea’s failure to adopt a nuclear verification protocol. Seoul also proposed providing materials and equipment needed to restore inter-Korean military communication lines, signaling its renewed will to revitalize the Gaeseong industrial park business. In addition, the government has been looking into legal means to prevent civic groups from sending propaganda leaflets to North Korea, a practice Pyongyang has taken issue with. Will these measures of appeasement induce North Korea to change its hostile attitude toward Seoul? Professor Kim continues to explain.

Even if North Korea accepts Seoul’s proposal, it will not appreciate it, but instead, take it for granted. It’s hard to imagine that North Korea would change its attitude just because of Seoul’s recent softened stance. But it’s still significant that the South Korean government continues to make efforts to maintain the dialogue momentum with Pyongyang. At present, inter-Korean relations are completely out of sync, and it is meaningless to argue about who is to blame. Amid the prolonged deadlock in bilateral ties, it’s necessary to hold authorities-level dialogue unofficially. Now is time for both sides to make concerted efforts to create a new diplomatic order on the volatile Korean Peninsula.

Inter-Korean relations are now at a critical juncture—heading either toward catastrophe or dialogue and reconciliation. Authorities-level dialogue is necessary now more than ever to avoid a catastrophic closure of the Gaeseong industrial park. 　 [Interview] Bucheon Cultural Festival Committed to Inter-Korean Peace, Unification
The city of Bucheon in Gyeonggi Province has held a special festival dedicated to inter-Korean peace and unification for 17 years. It is the only private-level regional festival that has lasted so long. Baek Seon-gi is an official with the Bucheon Citizens Alliance that organized the event. He believes there is no ideological conflict whatsoever in this city. Before, conservatives and progressives could never get together without bickering, but they’ve come to understand each other better through this event. On August 15 this year, private groups and citizens participated in the festival designed to boost understanding of inter-Korean issues. The festival drew enthusiastic response from the participants who took part in diverse programs, such as a free speech about unification and peace, a concert and an event of making bibimbap, a mixture of rice, meat and vegetables, together with North Korean defectors. Here’s Mr. Baek to tell us more about the festival.

The cultural festival is usually held for a week ahead of the August 15 Liberation Day, focusing on the generous participation of the public. It seems that citizens’ perception about this event has changed over the years. In the past, many participants regarded peace and unification as serious and sensitive issues. But after the first inter-Korean summit in 2000, it looks like they feel comfortable thinking and talking about these issues. Many parents enjoy the programs of the festival, and the concert, with their children.

The festival has its origin in the ‘Pan-National Rally’ in the late 1980s, which was an anti-American, anti-dictatorship movement. In the initial stage, the Bucheon event was held as a local gathering before the rally started, but it began to transform itself into a cultural festival in the mid-1990s. Starting in 1996, Mr. Baek showed interest in helping out North Korean people.

The division of South and North Korea has directly influenced the social sentiment, economy and almost all other areas in South Korea. In this ideological chaos, I think it’s meaningful that various civic groups, including conservative ones, get together to hold a cultural festival. And North Korean aid has enabled South Korean private groups to communicate with each other better.

Mr. Back has been helping ordinary citizens approach unification issues more easily by offering a feast to senior citizens in villages and holding a sampling party featuring North Korean food. And all the proceeds from the events have been used to support North Korean people. Three years ago, he collected 1,000 bicycles and delivered them to North Koreans who commuted to the Gaeseong industrial park. This year, he spent the collected funds to establish a childcare facility in Cheongjin, North Hamgyeong Province. He believes it’s necessary to shift the direction of unification movements from staging protests and rallies to enlisting public participation in civic projects. Baek now expresses his hope.

I hope this cultural festival will help resume the suspended Mt. Geumgang tour program quickly and improve inter-Korean ties, even though it is a small regional gathering. The international financial crisis is also hitting Korea hard. Both South and North Korea should cooperate to advance to the Eurasian continent. I think it is one of the ways to revive the economy. Our small efforts will hopefully contribute to achieving that goal.