North Korea’s threat to block overland traffic through the inter-Korean border beginning December 1 has become a reality. In a warning dubbed the “December 1st measures,” North Korea suspended South Korean tours to Gaeseong and the inter-Korean train link, slashed the number of South Korean officials stationed in the Gaeseong industrial complex, and restricted overland border passage by South Koreans. The Gaeseong tours had maintained the slender existence of Seoul’s North Korean business since the Mt. Geumgang tour program stopped, but the recent measure wiped out what was left of the sagging inter-Korean cooperation programs. Here’s Professor Kim Yong-hyun from the North Korean Studies Department at Dongguk University to explain the implications of the suspension of the Gaeseong tour.

The fallout from the suspension of the Gaeseong tour will be very serious. The Mt. Geumgang tour program has been halted since the shooting death of a South Korean tourist on July 11. With this matter still up in the air, North Korea shut down the Gaeseong tour as well, cutting off all the routes for South Koreans to travel to the North. The suspension of the Gaeseong tour will not only cause financial losses and but also mar the significance of inter-Korean cooperation programs severely.

The Gaeseong tour program opened in December last year but closed on November 28 this year, with 210 tourists becoming the last group to visit the historic city. The South Korean government and tour operator Hyundai Asan say it will be a ‘temporary suspension,’ but it is uncertain when the tour program will resume. North Korea also stopped operating the Gyeongeui rail line that reopened on December 11 last year for the first time in more than half a century since the Korean War. In just one year, the cross-border railway was severed again. The restart of the daily rail operation between the two Koreas last year was hailed as the beginning of an era of inter-Korean economic cooperation. But trains were often running empty recently, due to worsening inter-Korean relations, and the rail service has now slowed to a complete stop.

Many Koreans still remember the impressive moment of the reopening of the inter-Korean rail link in December last year. For that reason, the short-lived rail operation is all the more frustrating. It was not just an ordinary train service, but a symbol of the two Koreas coming together. The disconnection of the rail line, which could have been linked all the way to the Eurasian continent, means the suspension of inter-Korean economic cooperation, as well as a deadlock in bilateral ties.

Also, North Korea demanded that Seoul halve the number of its personnel stationed in the Gaeseong industrial complex. Accordingly, South Korea has pulled out half of its workers and staff from the area. The North also ordered a closure of the Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation Office and the withdrawal of all the officials working there. Currently, only two people remain at the office to take care of facilities there. The strong measures will inevitably disrupt South Korean companies doing business at the Gaeseong industrial park. Professor Kim says the companies now face a great deal of difficulty, because the North has considerably scaled down the hours and number of South Korean people and vehicles allowed to enter Gaeseong.

Only 880 South Korean workers and 450 vehicles are allowed to enter and stay within the Gaeseong complex each day, while they can use the Customs, Immigration and Quarantine office only three times a day. South Korean firms in Gaeseong have already experienced difficulty in conducting business there, due to three unsettled problems—cross-border passage, customs clearance and communications—, and the drastic cut in the number of people and vehicles allowed to visit Gaeseong will deal an even more serious blow to the companies. It is very disappointing that relations between the two Koreas, particularly their joint business venture, are sinking into atrophy.

North Korea puts all the responsibility onto Seoul for the setback in inter-Korean ties. The North argues that South Korea has deliberately aggravated relations with Pyongyang by neglecting the implementation of agreements made at the two previous inter-Korean summits and for taking a confrontational stance. But Pyongyang should clearly be held accountable, since the “December 1 measures,’ violate agreements signed by the authorities of the two Koreas.

In fact, North Korea caused legal problems. For example, the North blocked overland passage through the military demarcation line by all South Koreans, which goes against Clause 1 and 2 of Article 2 in the ‘Agreement on Immigration and Sojourn in the Gaeseong Industrial Complex and Mt. Geumgang Tourist Zone.’ The suspension of the Gaeseong tour also violates the inter-Korean investment guarantee agreement. Also, the shutdown of the Gyeongeui rail link runs counter to the ‘Basic Agreement on Inter-Korean Train Operation.’ For the sake of inter-Korean economic cooperation, it isn’t desirable for North Korea to render all these agreements worthless.

The Los Angeles Times said on December 1 that North Korea’s restriction of border passage would further isolate the reclusive regime. The U.S. daily also reported that analysts called the border rift the most serious in years, highlighting the deteriorating relations between the two Koreas, whose recent economic overtures had rekindled hopes for reunification after decades of brinkmanship. South Korean media also noted that inter-Korean relations have gone into a long hibernation, saying it’s anybody’s guess when the deadlock will be broken. The Seoul government remains firm in its previous position that ‘waiting is an alternative strategy,’ reiterating its will not to respond Pyongyang’s every single move. But some diplomatic experts are worried about the possibility of a military provocation by North Korea. They stress that both Koreas need to make more effort to prevent their relations from worsening further. Professor Kim says unless the stalemate is broken now, it could last for a long time.

It’s hard to be optimistic about future inter-Korean ties. On the contrary, the prospects are rather pessimistic. The situation may improve a bit in January or February next year, if the nuclear issue makes some progress following the inauguration of the Obama government in the United States. That would be a good time for both South and North Korea to mend their relations. But if the current situation remains unchanged until then, inter-Korean ties will likely suffer from tension and conflict throughout next year. Given this, it’s necessary to take special measures to improve the situation now. Otherwise, inter-Korean relations will undergo a cold spell for a considerable time.

The North warned the South on November 24th that its first round of hard-line measures would be followed-up by additional sanctions. And the North made good on its threat, as it has since announced additional measures almost every day. The North is highly likely to increase its threat level step by step, in line with the development in inter-Korean relations. Major inter-Korean channels are now shut down, and it is uncertain when they will reopen. Seoul should devise a novel way to prevent North Korea from exacerbating the already difficult situation. 　 [Interview] South-North Joint Art Performance Planned at Gaeseong Industrial Park Next Yr
The outlook for inter-Korean ties is extremely dismal now, but here’s someone who firmly believes that a joint inter-Korean cultural festival will help resolve the situation. Lim Jong-cheon, representative of show agency ‘Between Ourselves,’ is busy organizing a cultural festival featuring art troupes from both South and North Korea. Lim plans to hold the event in Gaeseong in North Korea next June to commemorate the ninth anniversary of the first inter-Korean summit and the sixth year of the establishment of the Gaeseong industrial complex.

2009 marks the sixth year of the creation of the Gaeseong industrial park. I decided to hold an inter-Korean cultural festival, because I thought it would be meaningful to showcase art performances from South and North Korea in one place, amid the standoff between the two sides. I visited Pyongyang in October with those involved in inter-Korean economic cooperation and discussed ways to ease inter-Korean tension with the North Korean side of the Korean Council for Reconciliation and Cooperation. Officials of the pro-unification group in North Korea responded positively to our idea of holding joint art performances.

The businessman in his 40s served as the representative of a local investment company for a long time. He’s always felt he should return the profits he earned to society. Now he is happy to realize his dream of running North Korea-related businesses, a goal he has been working toward since he was a 20-something. He engages in brisk exchanges between the two Koreas, in the belief that he should help needy North Koreans unconditionally.

I think it is important to integrate Korean traditional art and culture, which has evolved differently on both sides of the border. People in the two Koreas can learn more about each other through cultural exchanges, which will positively influence other inter-Korean issues. That’s why cultural exchanges are important. Korea is the only divided country in the world, and people on this peninsula have lived separately for half a century. It’s sad, isn’t it? There are many difficulties, of course. But I think Korean people must overcome them, moving beyond the limitations of national division.

Lim continues to stress the importance of ‘unconditional’ exchanges, without any strings attached. One day, he found himself nursing the same hopes for inter-Korean ties that he had cherished twenty years ago. He began to ponder what he could do in order to help resolve the tricky inter-Korean problems. While engaging in his own business, he also worked for the Korea Logistics Forum to contribute to South-North exchanges in a pragmatic way and participated in North Korean aid programs, such as the delivery of medical supplies and bicycles to the North. Lim wanted to organize North Korea-related projects himself, and last month, he set up , an agency dedicated to planning art performances. The inter-Korean cultural festival is the agency’s first project, scheduled for June next year. But the preparation work is slow, due to worsening inter-Korean ties.

Inter-Korean relations are going from bad to worse. If the current deadlock continues, it won’t be easy to hold this cultural event. Some North Korean officials propose holding the event in Pyongyang, instead of Gaeseong. We’re considering all the possibilities. The most important thing is mutual trust. Without trust, dialogue will only move backward. I do hope brisk cultural exchanges will help advance the unification of Korea.

Although it is challenging for him to take the lead in promoting South-North exchanges, he is firmly determined to devote his life to this mission.

Personally, I’m happy to do this job. But this is something Korean people have to do in light of brotherly love and national interest. I’ve felt the same way for the last 20 years. And inter-Korean projects should continue based on this belief. I find it very rewarding to share something with my brothers and sisters in the North who live hard lives.