North Korea has announced that it will hold an election on March 8th to select members of the Supreme People’s Assembly. They are equivalent to members of the National Assembly in South Korea. The Supreme People’s Assembly, established in 1948, is the North’s top lawmaking authority, which corresponds to the legislature of other countries. But in reality, it is little more than a rubber stamp for the Workers’ Party and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il. The election of the assembly members, whose term is five years, was initially to take place in September of last year. But North Korea has delayed the election, since its top leader, Kim Jong-il, never showed up to the ceremony marking the 60th anniversary of its regime foundation. Kim’s absence spawned speculation in the international community about his health conditions. Here’s Yonhap News Agency reporter Jang Yong-hun to explain the implications of the election, which will be held six months later than scheduled.

Most importantly, North Korea will resume a normal political schedule. Following the election, the Supreme People’s Assembly session will be held and the nation will subsequently conduct personnel appointments for the National Defense Commission and the Cabinet, which have also been postponed because the assembly is behind schedule. North Korea’s politics will then get back on track.

North Korea’s announcement on the election suggests Kim Jong-il’s health condition is now stable. Kim is believed to have engaged in public activities since early November, but he has yet to make an appearance at a public meeting. The plenary session of the Supreme People’s Assembly is expected to convene about a month after the March election. It is assumed that Kim may attend the meeting, given the previous tradition.

Kim Jong-il has almost always attended the first session of the Supreme People’s Assembly in the past. Videos used to show Kim walking from the entrance of the meeting venue, and he has customarily expressed his opinions about various issues by raising his party membership card during the meeting. Kim’s health is believed to have recovered considerably, so the North Korean leadership is now confident that it can show his normal activities to the outside world. That’s why the North decided to hold the parliament election, and the assembly session will likely take place after that.

After the March election, North Korea will organize the 12th Supreme People’s Assembly either in early or mid-April. During its plenary session, the assembly will deal with the delayed legislative and budget bills, as well as a personnel shuffle. The biggest concern is whether a shift in the North Korean power elite will be initiated. Grabbing special attention is the personnel selection for the National Defense Commission, since the new members of the all-powerful commission could determine the direction of future inter-Korean relations.

There’s some limitation when the Supreme People’s Assembly names officials in major agencies, but the assembly will certainly decide on the new members of the National Defense Commission, the communist nation’s most powerful post. Of course, Kim Jong-il will almost certainly continue to serve as the chairman of the commission. We have to watch who will fill other high-ranking positions in the commission. The Assembly will also decide on the new heads of each ministry. North Korea has recently recruited young officials who have accumulated practical experience. It’s also necessary to watch whether the change of generations will be made in personnel selection.

Some experts predict the legislature’s personnel appointments in the National Defense Commission will provide a clue to power succession in the post-Kim Jong-il era. They speculate that a reshuffle of key officials in the commission will be a prelude to a future power transfer. Meanwhile, many are paying attention to potential foreign policies supported by the Supreme People’s Assembly, which has the authority to legislate the nation’s major policies.

The Assembly is in charge of ratifying treaties with foreign countries and formulating international policies. It seems North Korea hopes to make progress in relations with the United States, where a new administration will be inaugurated on January 20. Just as the North’s New Year’s joint editorial clarified the nation’s view on denuclearization, it is possible that the Supreme People’s Assembly will reiterate its commitment to this goal and express its intention to improve ties with Washington. Also, this year marks the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and North Korea. The two countries have already designated 2009 as the ‘friendship year.’ The Assembly may touch on how to approach North Korea-China relations this year.

In its New Year’s message, Pyongyang set a goal of ushering in 2012 as the opening year of a powerful North Korea. To be reborn as a powerful country through economic growth, the North is in dire need of economic assistance from other countries. Under these circumstances, North Korea will actively seek dialogue with the Obama government in the U.S., which has advocated direct diplomacy with Pyongyang. It will be interesting to see how North Korea implements its economic policies, with the entire world hit hard by the financial crisis.

Amid the global financial crisis, most countries find it very hard to invest in North Korea. With the protracted deadlock in inter-Korean relations, it’s not easy for the communist nation to elicit funds from outside, either. In this situation, it is highly possible that North Korea will urge its people to tighten their belts to achieve the goal of making 2012 the opening year of a powerful North Korea. The Supreme People’s Assembly may announce detailed action plans for this goal, suggesting what direction the nation will be heading in.

The Supreme People’s Assembly session in April may provide a clue as to how North Korea’s political landscape and its domestic and foreign policies, including those about inter-Korean ties, may evolve. It’s hoped that Pyongyang will set its policies in a positive direction to mend relations with Seoul. 　 [Interview] ‘Korean Peasants League’ Takes Lead in Sending Rice to N. Korea
Relations between South and North Korea have deteriorated rapidly, following small and big incidents last year, such as the shooting death of a South Korean tourist at the North’s Mt. Geumgang resort and South Korean civic groups’ distribution of anti-communist propaganda leaflets to North Korea. In the face of the prolonged impasse in bilateral ties, the ‘Korean Peasants League,’ a South Korean farmers’ group, is taking the lead in providing rice aid to North Korea. The group held an event at the beginning of the year to recognize the shipment. Let’s listen to Min Dong-wook, the leader of the rice-sending campaign.

South Korean farmers started participating in this campaign in 2007 with the purpose of sharing rice they cultivated themselves with North Korean farmers. Last year, farmers, civic groups and local residents from 54 cities and counties across the nation engaged in rice farming on 460-thousand square meters of land. They collected rice and shipped it at Incheon Port on January 8th. The ship loaded with 162 tons of rice left for North Korea’s Nampo Port on January 11th.

The ‘Korean Peasants League’ is a coalition of 11 farmers’ groups. It works with the South Korean side of the Committee for Implementation of the June 15th Joint Declaration, with an aim of implementing the agreements reached at the 2000 inter-Korean summit. Min says the rice aid will facilitate the stable food provision for North Korean people and function as a shortcut to inter-Korean cooperation as well.

Our ancestors were willing to share everything, even a small bean, with others. Similarly, South Korean farmers hoped to share their products with North Korean people. And they also hoped this movement would pave the way for peaceful unification of Korea. I believe the expansion of private-level exchanges will positively influence the government’s efforts to resolve inter-Korean problems.

Min says it’s a relief that private-level exchanges have continued, despite the shutdown of official dialogue channels between the authorities of the two Koreas. But he’s not very optimistic because it’s not easy to conduct private exchanges. For example, rice was sent to the North overland when inter-Korean relations were good. But rice is now provided to the North only by ship, which has raised transportation costs sharply. And he finds it increasingly difficult to meet with North Korean farmers.

It’s very disappointing to see inter-Korean ties worsen. In 2007, we sent rice to North Korea overland by way of Gaeseong. At the time, we held meetings with North Korean officials several times to discuss the rice aid, and we actually visited Gaeseong and attended the signing event there. But inter-Korean relations weren’t very good last year, and it was hard to contact North Koreans, even at the private level. We made working-level contact just once. We couldn’t fully discuss details about the aid because we had to follow the schedule. Now we’re supposed to use the sea route linking Incheon and Nampo when sending rice to North Korea. The transportation costs increased unexpectedly.

Min stresses that the rice aid will prove beneficial for both South and North Korea, since it helps stabilize rice distribution in the South and alleviates hunger in the North. He has asked the government and politicians to arrange legal grounds for rice-sending, but the government hasn’t responded, and no politicians have backed him up so far. Still, he won’t give up on this campaign, because countless farmers, civic groups and Min himself believe that the rice aid will contribute to facilitating the unification process.

It isn’t easy to think about unification issues in daily life. While cultivating rice, farmers came up with the idea of sharing the product with people in the North. That was how the campaign started. Civic groups and local residents joined in the drive last year, planting and harvesting rice together. They also staged a fundraising campaign to collect necessary money for rice packaging and transportation. In the course of doing so, we realized that unification isn’t far away, but that we can advance unification by sweating and participating in something. I hope the movement will be expanded further this year, and many more citizens will take part in it.