On January 30, North Korea’s Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea, an organ of the North’s ruling Workers’ Party handling inter-Korean affairs, declared all political and military agreements between the two Koreas to be null and void. The provocative move came on the heels of a threatening statement from the North’s General Staff of Army on January 17, in which Pyongyang vowed to take an “all-out confrontational posture” against South Korea. The core of the North’s latest message is that there remains no hope for mending the current North-South relations, indicating inter-Korea ties are in a precarious state. Here’s Professor Kim Geun-sik from the University of North Korean Studies to explain.

North Korea has been taking aggressive measures and increasing pressure on South Korea recently. By deliberately escalating tension, Pyongyang intends to bully the Lee Myung-bak government in Seoul into changing its hard-line North Korea policy. North Korea places serious importance on face-saving and tends to make good on its pledges. So it doesn’t seem the North’s recent threats are a mere bluff. Pyongyang is expected to be getting even tougher toward relations with Seoul. When it comes to the possibility of an inter-Korean military clash on the West Sea, North Korea will likely maintain a strong stance, too, as it stated publicly.

The Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea was established in May of 1961. As the top authority in charge of inter-Korean dialogue, the committee has customarily announced the North’s official position about South Korea’s major diplomatic developments and new policies. North Korea’s “statement” usually represents the nation’s official views on important domestic matters as well as foreign relations and international issues. The committee’s recent statement is, therefore, considered to be the North’s most intense, politically-motivated threat against South Korea. According to the statement, North Korea will nullify all inter-Korean accords aimed at easing political and military confrontation between the two Koreas and abolish all clauses related to the military maritime border on the West Sea. Simply put, the North will no longer recognize the Northern Limit Line on the West Sea, so it will not conform to the existing agreements regarding the prevention of accidental clashes at sea.

The major target behind the North’s recent announcement is the 1992 Inter-Korean Basic Agreement, since North Korea cites the agreements concerning “respect for the other’s system,” “prohibition of slander and defamation” and “easing of military tension.” What is attracting our attention the most is North Korea’s intention to dump all agreements regarding the Northern Limit Line on the West Sea where naval forces of the two Koreas have often collided. Also, some of the “inter-Korean political and military accords” the North pledged to scrap are also covered in the October 4th inter-Korean agreement reached during the second inter-Korean summit in 2007. Therefore, the North isn’t likely to urge Seoul to continue to implement that agreement. This means North Korea will expect nothing from the Lee Myung-bak government from this point forward, so the situation may become even more serious.

North Korea reiterated its position not to admit the Northern Limit Line, the de facto maritime border on the West Sea recognized by South Korea. As a result, tension is rising over a possible military clash on the disputed sea. The NLL has served as a sea border between the two Koreas since it was drawn by the U.S.-led United Nations Command in August of 1953. But regardless of the NLL, North Korea is now threatening to expand its sea territory in line with another maritime border it declared unilaterally. In June of 1999 a naval skirmish erupted in the area, becoming the first inter-Korean armed conflict on the West Sea. On September 2 of the same year, the North proclaimed its own military sea border through a statement from the People’s Army General Staff. Pyongyang has since insisted the NLL is invalid. Currently, there are two borders drawn on the West Sea, one recognized by South Korea and the other claimed by the North. Now that the North has declared the NLL void, there are rising concerns about another sea battle between the two Koreas. But Professor Kim predicts that North Korea is unlikely to provoke the South.

With South and North Korea mired in a dangerous confrontation surrounding the NLL, we cannot rule out the possibility that minor clashes on the sea may develop into a bloody military battle. But it’s unlikely that the North Korean leadership will stir up a premeditated armed provocation on the West Sea, because it will consider future negotiations with the U.S. and the repercussions from a potential military clash between the two Koreas. And North Korea is well aware that a provocation is not in its best interest. Still, an unexpected incident may occur on the sea, since both South and North stand by their respective maritime borders. We’re most worried about the possibility of heightening military tension and an armed conflict in the disputed waters.

Two days after announcing the intimidating statement, North Korea warned of a possible armed conflict and even war through its official newspaper, the Rodong Shinmun. So, why is North Korea jeopardizing inter-Korean ties with intensifying saber rattling?

Pyongyang’s frustration with the Lee Myung-bak government continued to deepen in 2008. In a defiant move, North Korea tightened border controls, stopped the South Korean tours to Gaeseong and reduced the size of the Gaeseong industrial park as of December first last year. North Korea’s military threatened a “total confrontational posture” against the South last month and, most recently, the nation nullified many inter-Korean agreements. All things considered, North Korea is following the planned path toward its goal of handling inter-Korean relations to its own advantage and achieving national solidarity as well. North Korea appears to have concluded that it will be more advantageous to maintain tense relations with South Korea for the sake of political and social stability inside the nation, especially following the rising speculation about Kim Jong-il’s poor health. The North seems to be intending to strengthen national unity on the national occasions, such as Kim’s birthday in February and the election of the Presidium of the Supreme People’s Assembly scheduled for March.

Despite a series of aggressive measures by North Korea, the Seoul government maintains its typically reserved attitude, stressing the need “to wait patiently.” South Korea remains firm in its previous position that it will deal with inter-Korean relations based on strict principles and resolve the North Korean issues through close cooperation with the United States. South Korea believes the U.S. will reject North Korea’s outdated tactic of pursuing direct dialogue with the U.S. while sidelining the South. At present, the South Korean army, navy and air force are examining countermeasures against all types of emergency and strengthening surveillance of North Korea, looking for any unusual moves. They are on high alert for North Korean ships or fighter aircrafts trespassing into South Korean territory. Also, the navy reportedly plans to position destroyers on the West Sea earlier than usual. Typically, destroyers are deployed in May and June, during the peak season for blue crab fishing. We do hope a breakthrough in the mounting tension will come soon. 　 [Interview] S. Korean Businessman Operates Web Site Jointly with North Korean Firm
With governmental-level exchanges between South and North Korea in a protracted stalemate, a local businessman is devoting himself to North Korea-related activities, emphasizing the need for brisk, private-level exchanges during this difficult time. Park Young-bok, president of Buknam Trade, works jointly with a North Korean firm on the operation of a website that sells North Korean goods to consumers here in the South.

Buknam Trade was set up in September of 2003. We started business in three areas—commodities, art pieces and software. We’ve developed new sales items made in North Korea one by one, and the number now reaches 230. We’ve also imported more than 10,000 paintings from the North, and developed seven software items for mobile phone content, such as games, to deliver them to local mobile carriers, KTF and LG Telecom. Now we offer goods to 30 selling agencies across the nation and run an online shopping mall as well.

Park began to sell North Korean agricultural and fisheries products, liquor and artifacts in March of 2004. He established the nation’s first online shopping mall dealing in North Korean goods. In the first business year, Park and his four employees were able to post sales of 1.5 billion won. In 2006, the number of workers increased to 27, and the sales shot up to 5 billion won. His business seemed to be progressing well. But since last year, the size and sales of his company have been reduced significantly due to the prolonged deadlock in inter-Korean ties.

My business has been shrinking greatly recently. Businesspeople are reluctant to make an investment, due to the worsening inter-Korean relations. Business sentiment is very poor. There are many problems in doing business with North Korea. First, if we want to purchase North Korean goods, our supervising team is supposed to enter the North and examine the products there. But we’re not allowed to do so. Second, South Korea has banned the import of 200 kinds of North Korean farm and fisheries products, which could have otherwise been very popular here in the South. We can import unpopular products, such as wild greens, instead. It’s quite challenging to conduct business in this unfavorable environment.

Before jumping to the North Korea-related business, Park sold secondhand computers at Yongsan Electronic Market. He discovered the Internet was the best vehicle for showcasing his expertise. Despite the gloomy outlook for his business, he says he’ll never give up on his North Korean business.

Even though South and North Korea have been divided for over fifty years, they managed to start bilateral trade and exchanges. I thought inter-Korean ties would develop in a more positive way. North and South Koreans share the same language and culture, and North Korean labor is much cheaper than South Korean. That was why I decided to start this business. Government-level exchanges are important, of course, but I also believed exchanges in the private sector could contribute more to bringing the two Koreas together.

Park’s North Korean counterpart is “Joseon Expo Company.” Workers at Buknam Trade and their partners in Pyongyang communicate through MSN Messenger service. Telecommunications between the two Koreas have baffled many businesspeople, so Park is proud to have resolved the problem for his own company. Although the global financial crisis and strained inter-Korean ties are taking their toll on Park’s business, he remains firmly determined to overcome the challenges.

Private-level exchanges carried out by businessmen can really help promote Korea’s unification and national unity. Without patriotism and faith in unification, it would be hard to continue North Korean businesses, particularly when the governments of both sides are uncooperative. Once North Korea opens up its society and rearranges its systems, South Korean businessmen will realize North Korean workers are as excellent as South Korean ones. If South Korea’s managerial abilities and capital are combined with the North’s good-quality workforce and creativity, the Korean people will be able to secure global competitiveness.