With North Korea making a series of provocative comments against South Korea, signs of a possible missile launch have been detected in the North. The Sankei Shimbun was the first media outlet to report on the North’s preparations for an alleged missile launch. The Japanese daily said on February 3 that a reconnaissance satellite had spotted truck movements at a missile-launch site in Dongchang-ri, North Pyeongan Province. The paper added that the satellite also observed a container, which is large enough to house a Taepodong-2 long-range missile. In the meantime, South Korean media reported that a train carrying a long cylinder-shaped object had moved to a missile launch base in Musudan-ri on the North’s east coast. The South Korean government is keeping a close watch on a possible missile test-firing by the North, expressing concerns that Pyongyang may resort to its typical brinkmanship tactic once again. North Korea test fired missiles in July of 2006, escalating tension in the region. Diplomatic experts speculate that the new missile is an advanced version of the Taepodong-2 missile launched in 2006, which is believed to be capable of reaching Japan and the United States. Here’s Dr. Hong Hyun-ik from the Sejong Research Institute to explain.

North Korea has short-range Scud missiles, medium-range Rodong missiles and long-range Taepodong missiles. The nation did test launch its long-range Taepodong 2 missile in 2006, but it landed on the east coast, 2 kilometers away from the launch site after flying for just 40 seconds. And the new missile the North is allegedly preparing to test fire is likely to be an upgraded one. The Taepodong-2 missile is capable of traveling 4,000 to 6,000 kilometers, meaning it can reach Hawaii and even the west coast of the United States. If the new missile is an improved version of the Taepodong-2, it may have a range of 10,000 kilometers. If that’s correct, the new missile can reach the American continent. In this respect, the North’s suspected preparations for a new missile launch spark alarm in Japan and the U.S. The North has already deployed hundreds of Scud missiles, so the recent moves to prepare for a long-range missile test are not targeting South Korea, but more distant countries, such as Japan and the U.S.

So, why has North Korea decided to play its missile card at this particular time? Experts have analyzed that the North’s move is aimed at the Obama administration in the United States. They point out Pyongyang seeks to draw more attention from the new U.S. government and gain the upper hand in future negotiations.

For the Obama administration, the topmost task is to overcome the economic crisis. Other urgent diplomatic issues the U.S. is currently facing include the bloody conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Middle East, Iran’s nuclear development, an additional anti-terrorism campaign in Afghanistan and honorable retreat from Iraq. So, the Obama government doesn’t seem very active in tackling North Korean issues right now. With relations with South Korea officially closed off, North Korea is in desperate need of improving ties with the U.S. to receive economic assistance and a guarantee of regime security. By employing its dangerous missile card, North Korea is prodding the Obama government to hold bilateral dialogue quickly.

According to U.S. diplomatic experts who wrapped up their Pyongyang visit on February 7, North Korea neither confirmed nor denied any plans for a missile launch. Meanwhile, Washington strongly warned against the North’s missile launch, calling it a clear violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions. Involved countries are now wondering if North Korea will actually fire a missile, and if so, when it will push ahead with the scheme. Dr. Hong says there are various factors that might determine whether or not North Korea will launch a missile.

North Korea’s missile firing depends on the development in relations between the North and the U.S. North Korea is supposed to receive heavy fuel oil and construction materials for power plants in return for its nuclear disablement. If South Korea and Japan refuse to provide the fuel aid, the North may stop disabling its nuclear facilities and even begin the process of reprocessing spent nuclear fuel. North Korea will hold an election to select members of the Presidium of the Supreme People’s Assembly on March 8. The plenary session of the new parliament will be held in late March or early April, signaling the official launch of the third-term of the Kim Jong-il regime. So, if the North is really determined to launch a missile, it is highly likely to take action around that time. If the Obama administration continues to remain passive in North Korean issues, or if it adopts a tougher North Korea policy, the North may go ahead with a missile launch. Many are worried about this possibility.

The South Korean government frowns upon the North’s recent move as a violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions and a ploy to increase tension in the region. But Seoul has refrained from making provocative comments about the North’s actions, since the direct dialogue channels between North and South have been cut. If the North actually launches a long-range missile, it will face much stronger pressure from the international community, including the U.S. The missile firing would also have a significant impact on the six-party nuclear negotiations, which have been deadlocked since last December due to Pyongyang’s refusal to allow sampling at it nuclear sites.

North Korea’s missile launch will inevitably influence the six-party talks negatively in the short term. In a better scenario, the U.S. must hold dialogue with the North. When U.S. President Barrack Obama was a presidential candidate, he said he would meet the leaders of rogue states without precondition. Currently, Washington has yet to decide who will serve in major posts related to North Korea, such as assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs and a special envoy for North Korea. So, it’s unlikely the Obama government will formulate its North Korea policy right away. It may take shape in early or mid-March, at the earliest. If the U.S. seeks dialogue with Pyongyang under the new policy, the North won’t take aggressive actions. I hope North Korea and the U.S. will hold dialogue soon and the provision of heavy fuel oil will be carried out smoothly. Then, the North will complete its nuclear disablement and the six-party talks will reconvene to discuss the third and last phase of the North’s denuclearization. That would be ideal.

A breakthrough for a positive solution to North Korea’s missile threat could be found in the two Koreas’ efforts to resume dialogue and the Obama government’s more open-minded attitude. It’s hoped the concerted efforts of the involved countries will help ease the ongoing tension in this part of the world. [Interview] N. Korean Defector Introduces New Method to Grow Mushrooms
Cho-ji Bridge links Gimpo in Gyeonggi Province with the western part of Ganghwa Island, west of Seoul. Cross the bridge and a narrow country lane will take you to a mushroom farm managed by Lee Young-il. Lee is a North Korean defector who now serves as the representative of the Wellbeing Nature Farming Corporation.

My company focuses on research and cultivation of various kinds of mushrooms, such as ear mushrooms, Lion’s Mane mushrooms and St. Georges’ mushrooms. Currently, 15 employees are working for the company, and all of them are North Korean defectors living in the South. I studied mushrooms in North Korea. I thought I could contribute to promoting the health of South Koreans through my knowledge and skills about mushrooms. After a lot of research, my company was able to produce ear mushrooms. We’ve been supplying them to domestic consumers.

Lee obtained a doctorate degree in the Mushroom Department at Wonsan Agricultural College and worked as the head of the Mushroom Research Institute in North Korea. While participating in technology exchanges with Yenbien College in China, he found he had been staying in China longer than permitted. In danger of being arrested, he defected to South Korea in 2004. After he found a new home in the South, he began to utilize the method of growing ear mushrooms outdoors and acquired a patent on this new method in 2007.

In North Korea, mushrooms are one of the five strategic export items. So the nation is highly advanced in the research of fungi and germiculture, and using the outdoor method of farming is most common. In contrast, South Korean farmers cultivate mushrooms in indoor facilities. But I think this vegetable should be grown in nature to produce maximum medicinal effects. I studied the outdoor mushroom farming in North Korea for ten years, and the method proved successful. I’ve been using the same method here in South Korea.

Now Lee’s farm is equipped with facilities capable of mass-producing mushrooms, and his company has posted annual sales of 7.5 million US dollars. But the road to success was quite bumpy. He experienced a great deal of hardship in the course of resettling in South Korea. At first, he and other North Korean defectors collected their government subsidies and started up a mushroom business. Unfortunately, they fell victim to fraud and lost all their money. It took the group about three years to succeed in cultivating mushrooms because they were unfamiliar with South Korea’s geography and agricultural environment. But despite the repeated failures, Lee never gave up on his business, and he now finds his work very rewarding.

I was able to set up a company with my expertise in South Korea, and South Korean people can now eat mushrooms produced by North Korean expatriates. I’m glad that I have made some contribution, even if only in a small way, here in the South. My employees were doubtful of their future when they first entered the company. But the business flourished, and we have a rush of orders from around the country. Now the employees realize this is a good company and they feel happy to work here.

Lee kept up with his studies after arriving in South Korea and even won another doctorate degree. His efforts and passion for mushrooms do not end here, though. As a mushroom specialist, he hopes for inter-Korean exchanges in mushroom research. He is also considering expanding his business to benefit more North Korean defectors living in the South.

I believe the two Koreas should promote exchanges in mushroom research. South Korean farmers can visit North Korean farms to see how they grow mushrooms, and vice versa. If North Korea’s technology and the South’s advanced machinery and equipment are combined, Korea will be able to quickly catch up with China and Japan where mushroom farming is highly developed. Currently, many North Korean defectors have a hard time adjusting to a new South Korean environment. I hope to expand this business and hire some 1,000 such newcomers from the North.

We hope Lee continues to be successful in his mushroom business and is able to create even more jobs for North Korean defectors.