U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton brought up the issue of power succession in North Korea during her recent Asian tour, sending a slight shockwave through diplomatic circles. Speaking to reporters on a flight to South Korea on February 19, Clinton said North Korea may face a succession crisis. It is very unusual for a high-ranking U.S. official to publicly mention the possibility of a power shift in Pyongyang’s ruling structure. Some U.S. media outlets pointed out that Clinton’s remarks were a beginner’s error or a gaffe, criticizing her for violating a diplomatic prohibition. But Department deputy spokesman Gorden Duguid confirmed on February 20 that Clinton’s statement regarding North Korea’s leadership change is the official position of the U.S. State Department. Many are wondering why the U.S. government broached this sensitive issue at this particular time. Here’s Dr. Baek Seung-ju from the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses to explain.

The U.S. Secretary of State directly mentioned the possibility that a power struggle in North Korea may evolve in a way North can’t handle on its own. The remarks reflect Washington’s speculation that the internal situation in North Korea is very unstable, forcing the nation to employ a risky and provocative foreign policy. The U.S. considers North Korea’s overseas policy inconsistent. Last year, North Korea promised to agree on a protocol to verify its nuclear disablement if the U.S. removes the North from the list of state sponsors of terrorism. But Pyongyang simply broke the promise. Also, in a recent meeting with Wang Jiarui, head of the Chinese Communist Party’s International Department, North Korean leader Kim Jong-il said he would keep his promise to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula. But the General Staff of North Korea’s People’s Army said on February 2 that nuclear powers should convene to hold nuclear disarmament talks. North Korea refuses to disable its nuclear facilities, let alone nuclear dismantlement, citing various preconditions. The U.S. speculates that a series of recent announcements have come from different channels in North Korea, which indicates a power battle inside the nation.

Kim Jong-il recently appointed hardliner Kim Yong-chun as minister of the People’s Armed Forces of the National Defense Commission. Diplomatic experts assume the latest military reshuffle may be linked to the North’s leadership succession. It is also worth mentioning that Workers’ Party strategy manager Oh Geuk-ryeol was named Vice-Chairman of the National Defense Commission on February 20. Oh is one of the main architects of the Kim Jong-il regime, along with Workers’ Party administrative executive Jang Seong-taek, who is Kim’s brother-in-law. Also, Oh’s son is known to be the best friend of Kim Jong-il’s third son, Jong-un. The recent personnel appointment is therefore interpreted as one of the measures to facilitate the process of naming Jong-un as Kim’s successor. But experts remain rather circumspect about this issue, saying it’s too early to predict any changes in the leadership of North Korea.

North Korea will hold an election on March 8 to select members of the Presidium of the Supreme People’s Assembly, which will signal the launch of the third-term of the Kim Jong-il regime. I think the North carried out a military shakeup as part of efforts to pave the way for shaping a new power structure in the post-Kim Jong-il era. Newly appointed military officials, such as Kim Yong-chun and Ri Yong-ho, are on good terms with Workers’ Party administrative executive Jang Seong-taek, who is expected to play an important role in organizing the nation’s next leadership. North Korea did designate Kim Jong-il’s heir twice in the past, though indirectly, which proved a failure. Kim’s first son, Jong-nam was regarded as his successor for seven-to-eight years from 1995, but it turned out he didn’t deserve the title. Kim’s second son, Jong-chul, was groomed to be the nation’s leader from 2003 to 2005, but the result wasn’t satisfactory, either. In light of the hereditary power succession, Kim’s third and last son, Jong-un, will likely be given the opportunity to take a similar test. But testing is one thing and naming a successor is another.

Experts say it will be difficult for Kim Jong-il to actually effectuate the father-to-son power transfer, unlike the previous one pushed by late North Korean leader Kim Il-sung in the 1970s. Moreover, it’s hard to see even a rough outline of power succession right now. There’s a high possibility that a serious conflict or even a bloody clash may occur within the leadership in the course of power transition. Therefore, naming a successor isn’t the end of a power struggle but the beginning of enormous uncertainty. Experts note that it’s more important to prepare for the unstable power shift in the reclusive nation than to speculate about who will be named a successor.

Currently, Kim Jong-il has no designated successor. In the process of creating a new leader, the nation may see a fierce power battle and loyalty competition, which could damage internal unity. While Kim Jong-il was groomed for his father’s heir, he served in various high posts: he became the member of the Workers’ Party’s Central Military Commission in October of 1980. But now, it’s very hard to predict when the next leader will visibly gain a strong foothold amid the power struggle. If one of the sons of Kim Jong-il were registered as the candidate for the members of the Presidium of the Supreme People’s Assembly, it would be noteworthy. But there’s only speculation, and nothing has been confirmed as fact. At present, it’s necessary to watch whether there will be a major change in the March election and the assembly’s plenary session in early April.

So, how will North Korea’s power succession influence neighboring countries, including South Korea? With tension on the Korean Peninsula rising to new highs recently, attention is being paid to how neighboring countries will prepare for a potential change in the North’s ruling structure.

We have to watch whether a leadership change in North Korea may damage internal stability. Unstable domestic politics may spur Pyongyang to become even more provocative and hostile toward South Korea. China, South Korea and the U.S. do not want North Korea to suffer from abrupt turmoil or insecurity due to its internal problems. But if that happens, South Korea should cooperate with neighboring countries in a strategic move to prevent the fallout from affecting the nation. So, Seoul needs to exchange opinions with those countries on how to prepare for contingencies and examine feasible counter plans in advance.

It will be absolutely necessary for Seoul to examine how the unstable political factors in North Korea will influence South Korea and prepare for unexpected emergencies. Those efforts will also prove to be an important key to solving future inter-Korean ties. 　 [Interview] Defector Couple Opens N. Korean Restaurant in Gwangju
A restaurant is crowded with customers at lunchtime. This is ‘Mt. Baekdu Restaurant’ located in Dongmyung-dong in Gwangju city, South Jeolla Province. At first glance, it looks like an ordinary Korean eatery. But stepping inside the restaurant, you will see North Korean potteries and paintings displayed on one side. Traditional North Korean dishes are served in this restaurant, the first of its kind in Gwangju. The owners are Kim Gwang-hyuk and Ju Mi-young, a married couple from North Korea. Here’s Mr. Kim.

We held an opening ceremony on February 4 and started selling food the following day. Five people are working here, and all of them are North Korean defectors. We decided to open a restaurant with the hope of introducing local citizens to various North Korean dishes, like corn noodles, and helping other North Korean defectors in Gwangju relish their native food again. And I named it ‘Mt. Baekdu Restaurant,’ since the mountain has historical significance as a symbol of national spirit. I want customers to think about Korean history, North Korean culture and unification while having meals here.

Kim and his wife started their new South Korean life here in Gwangju. Actually, among 80 North Korean defectors who completed a training course in 2003 at Hanawon, a rehabilitation center for newcomers from the North, the Kims were the only people who applied to live in this city. Most newcomers favored big cities with many job opportunities. But Kim selected this city as his new home because he heard about the Gwangju pro-democracy movement in 1980 when he was still in North Korea. As expected, it wasn’t easy to start a new life in the city, but the couple was finally able to open a North Korean restaurant. Kim’s wife, Ju Mi-young is a skilled cook whose specialty is cold noodles, one of the delicacies in North Korea’s northeastern Hamgyeong Province. For 12 years, she worked as a cook at Shinheunggwan, one of the three best restaurants in the North. Ju is widely recognized as a good cook. She’s even shown off her cooking skills at various events related to North Korean food hosted by the Unification Ministry. She insists on traditional recipes when making North Korean dishes, including side dishes and desserts. So, customers can enjoy the distinctive, North Korean flavor in her dishes, which include cold noodles, dumplings, corn noodles and salted flatfish. More significantly, the restaurant isn’t just an eating place, but serves as a meeting venue for North Korean expatriates. Defectors are provided with free meals anytime, and Kim and Ju plan to use the basement of the restaurant as a cultural space for visitors.

As a North Korean defector, I understand the harsh reality my fellow defectors face. Government subsidies and other benefits have been reduced, and many newcomers have a hard time getting jobs. So I’m offering free meals to them. Also, we’re renovating the 115-squre-meter space in the basement. We plan to install a stage and karaoke machines there. North Koreans will be allowed to hold parties there on special occasions, like birthdays, as well as enjoy North Korean food. I’ll also stock the room with Korean history books. All visitors, whether they’re local citizens or defectors from the North, can learn North Korean songs and traditional folk songs, regardless of politics or ideology. The room has nearly been completed.

We hope the restaurant will continue to serve as a warm gathering place for Northern defectors, and remind South Korean citizens of the importance of unification as well.