Controversy over North Korea's alleged preparations for a missile launch has entered a new phase, as the nation has made clear its plan to launch a satellite. On March 11, North Korea informed the International Maritime Organization and the International Civil Aviation Organization of its intention to launch the "Gwangmyeongseong Two" communication satellite between 11 a.m. and 4 p.m., Korean time, sometime between April 4 and 8. The North also identified two potential danger areas in the notice. One is in the East Sea and the other, in different parts of the Pacific Ocean. Pyongyang did not notify the agencies for safety control in 1998 when it claimed to have launched its first satellite, the "Gwangmyeongseong One." But this time, North Korea gave the agencies prior notice of its launch plans. Jeon Seong-hun, researcher of the Korea Institute for National Unification, cites two reasons for the North's unusual move.

Currently, North Korea is subject to two resolutions of the U.N. Security Council. One is Resolution 1695 that was adopted in July of 2006 and the other is Resolution 1718 drafted in October the same year. Under the two resolutions, North Korea should refrain from all activities related to the development and launch of ballistic missiles. North Korea claims it will send a communication satellite, not a missile, into orbit for peaceful purposes. For North Korea, it's necessary to defend or justify its position. Also, North Korea seems to have improved related technology considerably. That's why the country confidently gave prior notice of its upcoming rocket launch before actually taking action.

In addition to the international organizations, North Korea reportedly notified the U.S. of its planned satellite launch. Experts interpret the move, if it's true, as the North's strategy to discuss this issue directly with the United States, and still not provoking Washington. North Korea also stresses that the space projectile it is preparing to fire is a satellite, not a long-range missile. But according to experts, whatever the projectile is, its core technology is the exactly the same one used for missiles, although it may take the shape of a satellite, so it could be used for military purposes anytime.

Both the satellite and missile use the same technology and same launch projectile. Once a delivery rocket puts a satellite into orbit, its purpose will be fulfilled. But a ballistic missile is supposed to reenter the earth's atmosphere for military attack. In a word, satellite delivery rockets and long-range missiles use the same technology. North Korea insists on space research for peaceful purposes. If experience is any guide, the North said it would use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, but in a sharp about-face, it later developed nuclear arms programs for military purposes. Not surprisingly, the international community has little confidence in North Korea.

Little has been known about the capability of the advanced version of North Korea's long-range missile, the "Taepodong Two." When the North fired the Taepodong Two missile in 2006, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency said the missile had a potential range of 4,500 to 6,700 kilometers. Also, South Korea's 2008 Defense White Paper simply mentions that the missile has an estimated range of up to 6,700 kilometers. But we can still measure the potential capability of the upgraded version of the long-range missile. According to the estimated satellite coordinates that were recently given by North Korea to the International Maritime Organization, the first-stage and second-stage rocket boosters could fall into different areas, 650 and 3,600 kilometers away from the launching site, respectively. Given this, North Korea's missile capabilities are assumed to have more than doubled, compared to ten years ago. Intelligence sources in South Korea also think that North Korea has been focusing on improving missile functions since the test-firing of the Taepodong-Two missile in 2006 proved to be a failure. Will North Korea be able to launch a missile successfully this time? If so, how high is that possibility? Military experts note that Iran, which is known to have cooperated with North Korea in missile development, successfully put a satellite into orbit last month.

North Korea has already declared its intent to launch a satellite both at home and abroad, so the nation will find it a political burden to withdraw the plan now. In my opinion, North Korea will put the plan into action anyway in order to gain the upper hand at negotiations with the U.S. and thus draw more concessions from it. In this respect, I think Pyongyang will push ahead with a missile launch. And I think there's a high possibility that North Korea's missile firing will be a success this time, considering close military collaboration between North Korea and Iran, which succeeded in launching its own satellite on February 2.

If North Korea's missile launch proves to be a success, whether it is a satellite or a missile, it means the communist nation is now capable of launching intercontinental ballistic missiles. Apart from its nuclear programs, this will give North Korea an added bargaining chip at negotiations with the U.S and further aggravate the security conditions on the Korean Peninsula.

I think Japan will be most sensitive about North Korea's missile launch, since it could pose a direct threat on the nation. In the short term, Japan will accelerate military cooperation with the U.S. to strengthen their missile defense network. North Korea's aggressive move may also stoke up South Korea's internal ideological conflict and spawn criticism of the current government's North Korea policy. But contrary to our expectations, Pyongyang and Washington may deal with this issue quietly through dialogue. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said a new negotiation channel would be needed to discuss the North's missile issue. So, even if North Korea does launch a missile, the U.S. government will likely seek to resolve this problem through negotiations.

In less than 20 days, North Korea may launch a satellite, which other countries believe to be a disguise for a long-range missile. North Korea's dangerous missile game will be a crucial diplomatic test both for the Obama administration and the Seoul government. We do hope North Korea will stop escalating tension in relations with Seoul and Washington so it won't isolate itself further in the international community.

[Interview]N.K. Defector-Turned-Businessman Opens Online Shopping Mall in S. Korea

During a late afternoon, a traditional market in Seoul's Dongdaemun area is bustling with shoppers. Our eyes are drawn to a young, serious-looking man standing in the crowd. Oh Se-hyuk is a North Korean defector who graduated college this year. And he has opened an online shopping mall, named "Bandari Shop," together with his North Korean friends. Last year, he attended a training course for those hoping to start new businesses offered by the Young Professionals Institute of Korea and received subsidies from the institute as well.

At present, I sell only clothes at my shopping mall, "Bandari Shop." Last year, I participated in an education program targeting North Korean defector teenagers hoping to start online businesses. Five people, including myself, decided to open an online shop, using a Manchurian black bear, as the symbol of our shop. The black bear is called "bandal bear" in Korean. It is said Manchurian black bears used to live in Mt. Baekdu in North Korea. After moving to Mt. Jiri in the South, some of them died, while some others survived. The bears reminded me of teenage defectors from North Korea, because some of them have a very hard time in adjusting to a new South Korean environment. We haven't produced a visible outcome yet. I'd say this business is just a small beginning.

Se-hyuk decided to start his own business, hoping to overcome the hard reality where North Korean defectors even with a college degree find it difficult to get jobs. When he was still in North Korea, he never used the nation's unique intranet, a closed online system for domestic use, not to mention the Internet. And he had never seen any character products in the North, either. After starting a new business in South Korea, he realized everything was unfamiliar to him. From the beginning, he experienced unexpected trial and error.

My friends and I didn't know how to lead business meetings, make presentations, explain business items or reach consensus. We knew nothing about the basics needed for starting a business. Still, we aren't capable enough to maximize the benefits of the Internet, because we haven't learned ways to promote our products through online communities. Also, many people don't expect much from our products. Some even refuse to take a look at them. It's disappointing, but we realize once again we must do better.

The most popular item is baby clothing embroidered with a design of a cute black bear. So far, the young businessman has received more orders from his acquaintances offline than online. Perhaps, it matters little whether this business will be a success or not. For Se-hyuk, it's more important to accumulate business experience by developing new characters and running a shopping mall.

In the past, I was reluctant to speak in front of people because I wasn't confident with myself. But now, I can explain my products to any customers. I can even bargain with experienced merchants and win them over. In the course of doing so, I can collect important information, like how to get materials at cheaper costs. But the process wasn't easy at all. If I succeeded in everything easily, my life would be different. But I think it's more meaningful to achieve things one by one, though the process may be rough. Life is never easy, but that's why it deserves challenging.

Se-hyuk escaped North Korea in 1999 at the age of 21. His father had been expelled from the Workers' Party and the family suddenly found it difficult to make a living. Concluding that there would be no hope, he decided to defect to South Korea, despite strong objections from his family. He has always felt guilty about leaving his family in the North, but he was determined to study harder here in South Korea to contribute to his home country after unification. He chose to study sociology, something he had never experienced in the North. To this end, he entered a graduate school this year. His dream is to research ways to improve the dire human rights situation in North Korea.

Sociologists perceive society from different angles, which is considered to be treason in North Korea. I want to study North Korea's human rights abuses, structural problems to intensify them, and potential models to improve the situation. I also hope to produce an animated film describing the lives of teenage defectors from North Korea. But first, I hope I can complete my studies well and get a job at an international organization. I'm not sure when I can go back to North Korea, but my hope is to teach sociology and human rights in my home country some day.