With North Korea’s planned rocked launch approaching, neighboring countries are busy devising countermeasures. On “Fox News Sunday” on March 29, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said North Korea might launch a rocket soon but Washington has no plan to shoot it down. The hard-liner’s remarks merit attention because they signal a major change from his previous stance. Gates was the first U.S. official to comment on Washington’s intention to prepare to shoot down a North Korean missile in early February. Dr. Hong Hyun-ik from the Sejong Institute says the U.S. has toned down its hard-line North Korea policy for various reasons.

On February 10, Washington’s defense secretary said the U.S. would make preparations to shoot down a North Korean missile, in a move to urge North Korea to refrain from taking any provocative action. But the North wouldn’t listen to the warning and continued to prepare for a rocket launch. China and Russia have remained rather circumspect about this issue, and the U.S. seems to have decided not to shoot down the North Korean missile this time, having future dialogue with the North in mind. In reality, the possibility of intercepting the suspected missile isn’t high. Even if the U.S. does intercept it, the international community may criticize it for hindering space use for peaceful purposes. Also, it is assumed that the missile won’t pose a direct threat to the U.S., since it cannot technically reach America. For those reasons, the U.S. has decided not to shoot down a North Korean rocket.

The shift in the U.S. government’s stance toward North Korea is also seen in the remarks of Stephen Bosworth, the U.S. special representative to North Korea. During an interview with the Washington Post on March 28, Bosworth said he wanted talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, spawning speculation about the possibility of direct dialogue between the North and the U.S. Meanwhile, Japan has shown the strongest reaction to the North’s impending rocket launch. Tokyo is not only planning on shooting down a North Korean rocket, but also considering various punitive measures aimed at dealing a blow to North Korea. On March 27, Japan ordered its missile defense system to shoot down a North Korean rocket. Also on March 30, Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso reiterated his intention to impose additional sanctions on North Korea, apart from the current economic ones, if the North launches a rocket. Dr. Hong analyzes Japan’s attitude in two ways.

First, Taro Aso seeks to take advantage of the North Korean missile issue in an attempt to improve his rock-bottom approval rating, which is hovering around 10 percent. Second, Japan hopes to boost its military capabilities, citing that its military power isn’t commensurate with its economic status. And Japan is using the missile issue to fulfill that goal. But Japan says it will shoot down a missile if it threatens the lives and property of Japanese people. So I don’t think the possibility of Japan’s intercepting the missile is high. It’s almost impossible to follow and shoot down a flying missile.

Both Japan and the U.S. have concluded that a North Korean missile cannot reach their land, so they are adjusting their plans for countermeasures and pursuing their own benefits instead. In the meantime, South Korea, Japan and the United States held a series of meetings in Washington on March 27 and discussed ways to counter North Korea’s rocket launch and to reconvene the stalled six-party nuclear talks. The three countries reaffirmed that the rocket launch would violate United Nations Security Council resolutions and agreed to deal with the North’s move at the U.N. level. It remains to be seen how seriously the U.N. will react to North Korea’s rocket launch.

If North Korea does launch a rocket, the matter will be referred to the U.N. Security Council. France, the United Kingdom and the U.S. have the same opinion that the missile launch will violate U.N. Security Council resolution 1718 that was drafted in October of 2006. In contrast, China and Russia think it’s hard to regard the North’s rocket launch as a violation of the U.N. resolution, because every nation is entitled to the peaceful use of space. So, it will be difficult for the U.N. to adopt a new resolution imposing sanctions against Pyongyang. As an alternative, some U.N. member nations are considering implementing the existing resolutions. But that will also be hard to do if China and Russia oppose to the plan. In the end, it is highly possible that the U.N. will release a chairman’s statement or a press communiqué condemning North Korea’s provocative action.

Amid the changing diplomatic environment regarding the North’s rocket launch, South Korea has also been a bit more flexible. In an interview with British newspaper the Financial Times on March 30, President Lee Myung-bak said he is opposed to any military response to the North’s rocket launch. Concerning Japan, which has issued an order to shoot down a North Korean rocket, President Lee raised the need for a more prudent response, indirectly expressing his objection to Japan’s plan. Dr. Hong continues to explain.

As a matter of fact, Seoul has sided with Japan until recently, citing the need for thwarting the North’s missile launch actively. But the Obama administration in the U.S. seems to be much more committed to dialogue with North Korea than the previous Bush government. The current U.S. government is willing to engage in dialogue with the communist state, whether it launches a satellite or a missile. Being well aware of the U.S. position, the South Korean government now seeks to put more emphasis on dialogue, rather than insisting on sanctions against North Korea, in order to resolve more serious issues, including the nuclear crisis. In this respect, South Korea has also softened its attitude toward the North in a shift from its previous, tougher, stance.

North Korea is expected to launch a rocket sometime between April 4 and 8. The weather will be the biggest variable, but experts mostly agree that it’s highly likely the rocket launch, if realized, will be a success. And the result will influence the U.N. Security Council’s sanctions and the resumption of the six-way nuclear talks. Depending on the result of North Korea’s missile launch, the security landscape surrounding the Korean Peninsula will inevitably see a major change.


[Interview]Former N. Korean Defector Publishes a Novel
A former North Korean defector has published a novel portraying the harsh reality of North Korea. The title of Ri Ji-myung’s novel “Where is Life” implies North Korean people find no real life or hope in their society. Here’s the writer, Ri Ji-myung.

A former North Korean defector has published a novel portraying the harsh reality of North Korea. The title of Ri Ji-myung’s novel “Where is Life” implies North Korean people find no real life or hope in their society. Here’s the writer, Ri Ji-myung.

The novel describes the lives of North Korean people who smuggled drugs to earn money during the so-called “Arduous March” period in the mid-1990s. Most of the episodes in the book are based on things Ri witnessed or experienced himself. Back then, countless North Koreans starved to death, due to the suspension of food rationing, and many barely managed to stay alive, eating brown seaweed and herb roots. The book vividly illustrates the tragic lives of North Koreans who fell victim to the drug smuggling business that was conducted by the North Korean authorities unofficially.

The novel describes the lives of North Korean people who smuggled drugs to earn money during the so-called “Arduous March” period in the mid-1990s. Most of the episodes in the book are based on things Ri witnessed or experienced himself. Back then, countless North Koreans starved to death, due to the suspension of food rationing, and many barely managed to stay alive, eating brown seaweed and herb roots. The book vividly illustrates the tragic lives of North Koreans who fell victim to the drug smuggling business that was conducted by the North Korean authorities unofficially.

There are many North Korea-related books, but this novel is notable because it was written by a North Korean defector who had lived a hard life in the communist country. Ri was a talented writer when he was young. While he was serving in the army in North Korea, one of his works was highly praised by former North Korean leader Kim Il-sung, and he was admitted to the Pyongyang College of Theater and Film. He was excited to study writing in college. But his happiness didn’t last long. He was expelled from the school, due to the fact he was from a wealthy farming family. He returned to the army and became the member of a writers’ association. Three of his works were later made into a film, but none of them were screened under his name. And due to his background, he couldn’t enjoy the privilege of meeting the North Korean leader, as film crews usually did. So, Ri decided to escape the country. Upon arriving in China, he began to write “Where is Life.” His life in China was precarious because he could have been arrested at any time. But he felt immensely happy at the thought of writing freely.

I was excited to be able to write what I was thinking and feeling without constraint. In North Korea, writers are supposed to follow the Party’s instructions when writing. It is unthinkable to write what they really want to express. If they do, they cannot pass censorship and the authorities force them to “arm” themselves with communist ideology. Few writers can enjoy popularity in North Korea. Readers may be impressed by a certain writer, but he or she cannot be popular, because only dear leaders can. The authorities believe if someone becomes popular with the public, he or she may create anti-government sentiment. Also, those who live difficult lives cannot be described as heroes or heroines in books or movies, because they cannot represent the society.

After arriving in South Korea, Ri continued to make strenuous efforts with the hope of seizing an important opportunity. His opportunity came at last. An official of a local publisher, who happened to read his story on the Internet, offered to publish his work. Ri says he is very happy now because there are readers who love to read his book. Yet he doesn’t feel he has completely fulfilled his dream.

In conclusion, I’m happy to live my life in this way. I think difficulties that can be overcome will eventually make people happy. In the course of getting over all the difficulties, I’ve learned a lot and developed myself. I hope to write more about North Korean people and their lives—their love, their jobs and their relationships—completely free from politics or ideology. I’ll be happy as long as South Korean readers are interested in my writing and learning about North Korea, regardless of the number of readers. With this in mind, I’m working hard now.

We’re looking forward to reading his next novel, which will help us better understand North Korea and its people without any political or ideological restraints.