North Korea is apparently reactivating its nuclear facilities, raising concerns about the possibility of a repeat of the 2002 nuclear crisis. In protest of the U.N. Security Council’s adoption of a presidential statement condemning North Korea’s recent rocket launch, the North threatened to boycott the six-party nuclear talks and restore its nuclear facilities. In another defiant move, Pyongyang ordered U.S. nuclear experts and inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency to leave the North, and informed the IAEA that it has decided to reactivate all facilities. The IAEA inspection team has now removed seals and surveillance cameras from the Yongbyon facility and left the country. Here’s Hahm Hyeong-pil from the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses to explain the backdrop for North Korea’s recent actions.

A series of recent saber-rattling measures by North Korea came on the heels of its launch of a long-range rocket on April 5. The United States has been paying more attention to economic issues and security concerns involving the Middle East than to North Korea. Discontented, Pyongyang seems to have decided to employ another brinkmanship tactic. So the North chose to draw out drastic cards, such as the restoration of its nuclear facilities, taking issue with the U.N. Security Council’s adoption of a presidential statement denouncing the North’s rocket launch.

This isn’t the first time North Korea has used a threat to stop its nuclear disablement as a negotiation card. Last September, the North threatened to restore its partially disabled nuclear facilities in a bid to pressure the U.S., after Washington delayed removing North Korea from the list of state sponsors of terrorism. But North Korea simply banned nuclear inspectors from approaching the nuclear facilities and stopped short of expelling them at the time. North Korea has reportedly extracted 6,500 of 8,000 spent fuel rods from the Yongbyon reactor, and experts predict the nation will be able to restore the reprocessing facility within a few months. Adding weight to the prediction, IAEA Director General Mohamed El-Baradei said on Monday that North Korea could restart its nuclear facilities within months. Here, again, is Mr. Hahm.

Basic reprocessing equipment is separately packed and stored inside the Yongbyon facility. I think it will take three months, at the longest, to move the equipment back to the place it used to be and reassemble it. If the North Korean authorities work in a rush, pressing ahead with all-night work, they could reactivate the facility even in a month. So, North Korea is expected to fully restore the reprocessing facility within one to three months.

In addition to the restoration of the Yongbyon nuclear facilities, North Korea also said it would actively consider building its own light-water nuclear reactor. But the impoverished nation has no economic or technological capacity to build such a reactor on its own, and that’s why it has demanded other countries construct light-water reactors in the North as an economic incentive for its nuclear dismantlement. Even if North Korea does build a light-water reactor, experts say the plan won’t be easy to implement because there will be many more considerations to follow. The nation will have to secure adequate funds for the construction and sign an atomic energy agreement. Mr. Hahm explains why North Korea is pursuing such an unrealistic plan.

North Korea has long been obsessed with light-water reactors. It is always ready to demand the construction of the reactors, and it has broached the issue this time in preparation for future negotiations. The second nuclear crisis erupted in 2002 when the U.S. accused North Korea of harboring a secret uranium-enrichment program. Most experts assume that the North is running the program even now, even though it hasn’t been revealed overtly. Light-water reactors are fueled by uranium. Following the example of Iran, North Korea has mentioned the need for such a reactor in order to justify the operation of uranium-enrichment facilities.

Meanwhile, the U.S. government urged North Korea to stop provocative threats and return to the six-party talks. Regarding the North’s recent actions, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said North Korea was making an “unnecessary response,” adding that the U.S. is anticipating an opportunity to discuss the issue not only with allies but also with North Korea. Clinton’s remarks are interpreted as Washington’s intention to hold dialogue with Pyongyang. Diplomatic experts are now watching whether participants of the six-party talks will be able to draw North Korea to the negotiation table before it crosses the red line, namely, the production of plutonium through the reprocessing of spent fuel rods. Mr. Hahm predicts the six-party talks will remain at a standstill for some time.

North Korea’s threat to nullify the six-party nuclear talks means it will return the nuclear issue to its condition prior to the first phase of the talks. If that happens, all the achievements and efforts made during the denuclearization process under the Bush administration will come to nothing. The diplomatic environment has changed a lot, compared to that of 2002. North Korea and the U.S. have engaged in a fierce war of nerves since President Obama took office, prompting North Korea to take stronger measures. I think it will be difficult to resume the six-party talks for the time being, and tension will continue to linger until the latter half of this year or the first half of next year.

It’s clear North Korea is seeking to increase the pressure in the six-country nuclear negotiations, but it remains to be seen whether Pyongyang will follow through on its threats to raise tension on the Korean peninsula and beyond.
[Interview]Exhibition Displays Goods from Gaeseong Industrial Park
With inter-Korean relations deteriorating further in the wake of North Korea’s recent rocket launch, an exhibition of products from the Gaeseong Industrial Complex and those from inter-Korean trade was held at the Atlantic Hall in COEX in Samsung-dong, southern Seoul, from April 14 to 17. Here’s Hwang Chae-yeon from the Korea International Trade Association, which hosted the event, to explain the goals of the exhibition.

Most South Koreans aren’t very well informed about what kinds of goods are manufactured in the Gaeseong Industrial Complex and what items are imported from North Korea for local sale. We arranged this exhibition to let the public know more about those products and to support small businesses engaging in North Korea-related trade. Currently, about 100 manufacturers are in operation in Gaeseong. We expect the event will promote the good-quality products from Gaeseong and provide an opportunity for South Korean consumers to see and evaluate North Korean goods. It will also help trade firms expand their sales network through direct consultation with distributors.

The exhibition displayed goods manufactured by 14 companies, including eight South Korean firms doing business in Gaeseong. Compared to a similar exhibition last year, the recent event displayed more diversified items, including indigenous North Korean mushrooms, the nation’s specialty liquor, called Deuljjuk Wine, electronic appliances, sports equipment and articles of daily use. Many visitors welcomed this special exhibition, which was held in the face of the protracted stalemate in inter-Korean ties. They also showed great interest in various kinds of high-quality North Korean products. A visitor shares his opinion.

I thought North Korea-related activities were rather sluggish, because of the icy inter-Korean relations. But I discovered diverse North Korean goods here, and their designs were far better than I had expected. I admit I had a prejudice against goods from North Korea, but now I realize they’re great. I think it’s necessary to promote the products more actively.

As a matter of fact, 2008 was a painful year for companies involving inter-Korean trade. Starting with the closure of the Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation Office in Gaeseong in March last year, inter-Korean ties continued to experience serious setbacks, such as the shooting death of a South Korean tourist at the North’s Mt. Geumgang resort, North Korea’s restriction of cross-border passage, and most recently, the North’s rocket launch. Due to the worsening political conditions and the economic slowdown, inter-Korean trade has been decreasing this year. Let’s listen to Yu Chang-geun, manager of SJ Tech, a plastics maker in Gaeseong, and vice president of the association of businesses running factories in the Gaeseong industrial park.

Following North Korea’s drastic actions, such as the passage restriction and a rocket launch, companies in Gaeseong are worried that buyers are reluctant to place orders for fear of the shutdown of the Gaeseong complex. Manufacturers of seasonal products, in particular, are in a serious difficulty. It’s time for them to produce items for the fall or winter seasons, but decreasing orders leave them at a loss. Also, many firms have a hard time conducting technical training or managing their workforce, due to the partial restriction of cross-border passage. Distribution of raw materials and products isn’t smooth, either, so the manufacturers are feeling the pinch of increasing production costs.

Under these unfavorable circumstances, many firms hailed the latest exhibition. They all stress the importance of boosting the competitiveness of the Gaeseong Industrial Complex and raising public interest in goods produced there. Let’s listen again to Mr. Hwang and Mr. Yu.

…The Gaeseong Industrial Park will prove to be a win-win model in inter-Korean economic cooperation. Hopefully it will also develop into a globally competitive industrial park. I’d like to ask South Korean people to show more interest in Gaeseong products.

…The Gaeseong project should be carried out smoothly, regardless of unstable political situations. I do hope the industrial park will be operated on strict business principles, separated from politics, so it can stay globally competitive.

It’s hoped the recent exhibition won’t end up being just a one-time event but will serve as momentum to provide consistent support to businesses involving inter-Korean trade. We also hope that the Gaeseong industrial park, the symbol of inter-Korean reconciliation and cooperation, will restore stability soon.