Intelligence sources have detected signs North Korea may fire an intercontinental ballistic missile, or ICBM, following its nuclear test last month. ICBM refers to a missile with a range of more than 5,500 kilometers, which is capable of moving from one continent to another. South Korean intelligence authorities said on May 30 that it had confirmed a three-car cargo train at an artillery research center in Saneum-dong near Pyongyang was loaded with an intercontinental ballistic missile. They also confirmed on June first that a long-range missile had been moved to a launch site in Dongchang-ri, North Pyongan Province. This missile launch base located in the nation’s northwestern region is assumed to have more modern, larger facilities than those at the launch site in Musudan-ri, northeast of the peninsula, where the North fired a rocket on April 5. Amid escalating tension, many are wondering whether the communist nation has actually developed an ICBM and how extensive the North’s missile capability is. Here’s Dr. Jeon Seong-hun from the Korea Institute for National Unification to explain.

It’s hard to predict the exact situation now. Many experts simply speculate that the missile North Korea is preparing to fire is an improved version of the Taepodong-2 missile it launched on April 5, or a similar one with a slightly changed design. As a matter of fact, North Korea missile capability has reached a significant level. Only a few countries have launched missiles with a range of more than 3,000 kilometers. Pyongyang claimed that the launched rocket on April 5 was carrying a communication satellite in the context of peaceful use of space. But this time, the North explicitly mentions an intercontinental ballistic missile. I think North Korea has now apparently taken off its mask of “peaceful use of space.” ICBM is an indirect expression of the North’s determination to develop missiles with military purposes.

Noting that Pyongyang has followed through on its warnings step by step, experts predict the North is sure to fire an intercontinental ballistic missile, if the U.N. places additional sanctions on the North. They speculate a series of recent arms demonstrations were necessary for the ailing North Korean leader Kim Jong-il to achieve internal unity and strengthen a power base so he can justify the naming of a successor. Also, the North is preparing to test-launch an ICBM, a nuclear warhead carrier, in an apparent bid to demonstrate its nuclear capability and earn nuclear state status.

Considering the nature of the communist regime, Kim Jong-il’s and his father Kim Il-sung’s obsession with nuclear weapons and the nation’s nuclear arms development history, the final goal of the North Korean leadership is to possess nuclear weapons. Once a nation succeeds in nuclear development and owns nuclear weapons, the outside world can’t force the country to give up its nuclear programs. History shows this reality. Therefore, North Korea’s top goal is to become a nuclear and missile power. This is exactly what the nation is going for in order to build a so-called “powerful North Korea” by 2012. While the U.S. remains hesitant to deal with North Korean issues, Pyongyang is accelerating its nuclear and missile development to fulfill its ultimate goal of developing missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads and completing its nuclear weapons program.

In the meantime, North Korea has voiced strong discontent toward China because even the biggest supporter of North Korea showed signs of joining sanctions against the North. North Korea’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement on June 1 that the U.S. and other forces courting U.S. favor should be responsible for driving the situation to the current state. “Other forces” here definitely include China. Beijing, for its part, cancelled a visit to North Korea by Chen Zhili, the vice chairwoman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress. Despite the deteriorating relations between China and North Korea, it’s highly likely that Pyongyang will take stronger military steps under the pretext of bolstering self-defense. So, when will the North fire an intercontinental ballistic missile? Experts have made various projections, but given the nation’s recent military grandstanding, most agree it won’t be long before North Korea pursues an ICBM launch.

Some predict North Korea will fire an ICBM around mid-June when a South Korea-U.S. summit is scheduled. I think it’s also possible the North will fire a missile timed with July fourth, the U.S. Independence Day, as it did in 2006. Whatever the timing, North Korea’s ICBM launch will prompt the U.N. Security Council to decide on stronger sanctions against the North. Of course, Pyongyang won’t yield to international pressure. The nation conducted a nuclear test on May 25, but it may carry out an additional nuclear experiment. By the same token, there may be more missile launches. It’s also possible that North Korea will openly develop a highly enriched uranium program. As far as inter-Korean relations are concerned, North Korea could make military provocations near border areas, such as the Northern Limit Line in the West Sea, the Demilitarized Zone and locations along eastern waters.

Involved countries, including South Korea and the U.S., are moving fast to counter the North’s drastic actions. The South Korean military authorities have upgraded their alert level, watching the North’s moves carefully, while the U.S. government warns that North Korea should be held accountable for any consequences following its provocative acts. Washington also says it is working on comprehensive countermeasures, in collaboration with its allies. Meanwhile, Charles McQueary, director of operational test and evaluation of the U.S. Defense Department, said on May thirty-first that U.S. missile interceptors could take down a long-range North Korean missile. Attention is now being paid to the chance of interception.

A U.S. missile interception system is deployed in Alaska. The Bush administration established the system, and the interception test proved successful. But there is still controversy over the possibility of actually implementing the system in real operational situations. The U.S. could shoot down a North Korean missile the moment it enters U.S. territorial air. But an interception on international waters or in the North Korean territorial air would be illegitimate. Therefore, the U.S. will take down a North Korean missile only when the international community is convinced that it could put the U.S. territory in danger. Currently, the interception technology isn’t perfect, but Washington continues to upgrade it. I’d say the U.S. has upped its military readiness, to some degree, against possible North Korean provocations.

Tension is escalating in the region, as North Korea is mobilizing all possible aggressive cards available, while the U.S., which had stressed the importance of dialogue, now seeks to increase the level of its countermeasures. Involved countries should be able to find a breakthrough as early as possible to ease the tension of the moment and eventually end the nuclear crisis.


[Interview] N. Korean Defectors Working on Film Production
From early in the morning, a group of people are busy with film production work in a residential area in Sosa-dong, Bucheon City in Gyeonggi Province. They look like ordinary movie production crews, but all of the team members, from directors and screenwriters to actors and actresses, are North Korean defectors. The movie they are producing is the first project of Hana Culture, a company established by North Korean defectors. The film production staff consisting of such defectors only is also the first of its kind. Here’s Kim Myeong-su, a director in charge of film shooting.

There have been several South Korean movies about North Korean defectors. But those films weren’t very successful, even though they featured famous stars. I imagined a movie involving real North Korean people would reflect more realistic elements. But these actors and actresses are amateurs, who have no prior film acting experience. Actually, I auditioned some North Koreans who had worked as professional actors. But they strictly followed North Korean style, which I thought would be rather unfamiliar to South Korean audiences. So I decided to use those who had never experienced acting before. Most South Koreans think defectors here engage in the so-called “3-D” jobs- difficult, dangerous and dirty. But I wanted to show that the newcomers are competent enough to perform this artistic work as well.

Under the temporary title, “Choice,” the film started shooting in Jeonju City in early April. The movie revolves around an investigator of North Korea’s National Security Agency. He tries to help his girlfriend, who was forcibly repatriated to North Korea, escape the North again. In the course of doing so, he discovers absurdity and contradictions of the North Korean regime and he himself tries to flee from the country. The crews are shooting scenes in various parts across the country, with 80 extra hands mobilized. To make the movie more realistic, a scene describing a North Korean prison was shot at a police cell in Jeonju and the scene of a car collision was shot without simulation. Head director Chae Myeong-min says he will never forget the enthusiastic performances of actors and actresses.

Some scenes are so realistic and amazing, and I bet they can even impress film critics. For example, it must have been very hard to act as church ministers who are beaten severely. But the two actors put forth every ounce of their energies to get the shooting work done. It’s one of the most impressive scenes of the movie. We couldn’t use stunt men, so actors themselves had to drive cars for a collision scene. To me, that was the most memorable scene.

Director Chae says these amateur film crews face many difficulties, due to lack of experience in acting and insufficient technology. They often substitute instant noodles or bread for regular meals, because of their poor financial situation. Yet, they encourage each other when they feel down, and the movie set is always filled with laughter. And the crew is very proud of making this movie. Here is one of the actresses.

I perform the role of Seo Yeon-hee, a daughter of a North Korean diplomat and woman doing business overseas. When I was in North Korea, I dreamed of becoming an actress. Now I’ve realized my dream here in South Korea. It’s a challenging job, but I’m proud of playing a part in this film production. I love this job. I’m acting as a woman living in a North Korean environment, but in the future, I hope to express a happy South Korean who has achieved what she really wanted to do. I’ll continue to work hard.

The crew is busy putting the final touches on the film production, with a premiere showing in local cinemas scheduled for early July. They plan to release the film in Japan and the United States as well, hoping that the movie will help reawaken public interest in North Korean culture and North Korean defectors. Here’s Jeon Myeong-ho, representative of “Hana Culture.”

This movie is produced by Hana Culture, but I would say it is a movie for all North Korean defectors. I hope the audience members will show more interest in North Korean defectors after watching this film and extend a helping hand to other defectors wandering in China and in third world countries.

Many South Koreans tend to approach inter-Korean issues with the logic behind politics. Here’s hoping this film, made of the defectors’ efforts and enthusiasm, will help South Korean audiences feel North Korean issues in their hearts.