With North Korea-U.S. dialogue fast approaching, there is speculation as to how Korean Peninsula issues may evolve in December. North Korea and the United States have entered a dialogue phase, and South and North Korea, too, are showing signs of moving toward dialogue to end the protracted stalemate. This month could mark a major turning point in security conditions in the region. What merits the greatest attention is the Pyongyang visit by U.S. special representative for North Korean policy Stephen Bosworth. Experts agree that Bosworth’s North Korea visit, the first official dialogue between the two countries since the Obama Administration’s inauguration, will have a significant impact on the future security landscape on the Korean Peninsula. Here’s Dr. Hong Hyun-ik from the Sejong Institute to explain.

The U.S. will discuss only two topics—North Korea’s return to the six-party talks and denuclearization. Still, the two sides may exchange opinions about a wide range of issues. North Korean leader Kim Jong-il might even meet with Bosworth during his three-day stay in Pyongyang, although the chances are slim. Once North Korea expresses its willingness to rejoin the six-party talks, the two sides will strike a major breakthrough for the nuclear issue and they can start relevant negotiations quickly. If that happens, inter-Korean relations will progress smoothly, too. We’ll have to watch North Korea’s attitude when Bosworth visits North Korea on December 8th and what the two sides may agree upon. The result of the U.S. special envoy’s Pyongyang trip will greatly influence the diplomatic climate in this region in the coming months.

Right now, it’s hard to predict how Bosworth’s Pyongyang trip will unfold. But most experts agree that the hard-earned dialogue is unlikely to unfold in one meeting, but will lead to follow-up talks. Prior to the review conference for the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons scheduled for May next year, the U.S. must produce some results in the North Korean nuclear issue. North Korea, for its part, feels an urgent need to keep the dialogue momentum going in order to evade international sanctions. With the atmosphere for North Korea-U.S. dialogue developing, many are wondering whether inter-Korean ties, too, may gain traction.

North Korea has been obviously committed to dialogue with South Korea since Hyundai Group Chairwoman Hyun Jeong-eun met with North Korean leader Kim Jong-il in Pyongyang in August. The two sides held reunions for separated families before the Korean Thanksgiving day holiday of Chuseok. The Seoul government also offered 10-thousand tons of corn aid to the North, although Pyongyang has yet to respond to the proposal. In another good sign of improving relations, economic officials from South and North Korea will visit industrial complexes in China and Vietnam in mid-December to look for inspiration for the struggling Gaeseong Industrial Complex and to further develop the joint business venture. Also, the two sides have engaged in behind-the-scenes contact to discuss the possibility of an inter-Korean summit since August. Given the circumstances, the Seoul government is ready to push for inter-Korean dialogue quickly and actively as long as there is progress in the nuclear issue. So, it’s highly likely that developments in the nuclear standoff will determine the fate of bilateral relations.

Meanwhile, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak said he wouldn’t necessarily insist on holding an inter-Korean summit in Seoul. Some predict the president’s remarks represent a positive signal toward a possible bilateral summit. Appearing on the nationally-televised “Dialogue with the People” on November 27, President Lee made these remarks, adding that he could meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-il if the summit helps resolve the nuclear crisis and if the two leaders could discuss humanitarian issues. But the president also said he had no immediate plans to push for a summit, reiterating his previous position that he’s ready to meet the North Korean leader at any time as long as the goal of inter-Korean reconciliation and common prosperity will be achieved. Dr. Hong says the two Koreas need more time before actually holding a summit.

President Lee said the venue for an inter-Korean summit does not necessarily have to be Seoul. That means the venue may be in North Korea or outside the Korean Peninsula. The president’s open attitude is believed to eliminate a major stumbling block on the road to mending inter-Korean relations. But Lee insists that the nuclear issue be the formal agenda of the inter-Korean summit. North Korea claims that it developed nuclear weapons in order to counter Washington’s hostile policy toward the North. So, North Korea says it will give up its nuclear programs once the North and the U.S. sign some sort of a non-aggression pact. It shouldn’t be a problem for South Korea to deal with the nuclear issue in a complementary fashion to help smooth the progress of North Korea-U.S. dialogue or six-party talks. But if the South puts the nuclear issue on the table as the key agenda of the inter-Korean summit, a big obstacle will still remain. I imagine it will take a considerable amount of time for a favorable mood for an inter-Korean summit to materialize.

Ahead of bilateral dialogue between North Korea and the U.S., other participants of the six-party talks, like China, Japan and Russia, have engaged in their own diplomatic activities. Chinese Defense Minister Liang Guanglie recently met North Korean leader Kim Jong-il in Pyongyang and underlined the friendship sealed in blood between the two countries. In Japan, there is speculation that Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama may visit North Korea soon, indicating that Japan seeks to renew its relations with the communist state. Meanwhile, Russia dispatched its representative to the six-party talks to Pyongyang last week, in an apparent move to intervene in nuclear negotiations. All things considered, the diplomatic situation surrounding the Korean Peninsula does seem to be shifting into a dialogue phase. But Dr. Hong stresses that it’s essential to resolve the nuclear issue first in order to develop this mood for dialogue into pragmatic negotiations.

A solution to the nuclear issue is the most important factor for improving North Korea-U.S. ties and inter-Korean relations, as well as for resuming the six-party talks. It’s necessary for the involved countries to acknowledge the North Korean regime and approach the nuclear issue with full consideration of the security dilemma the isolated country faces. South Korea, China and the U.S. may suggest a joint, comprehensive plan to North Korea. If the North refuses to accept the offer, the three countries must remind the North that they could impose severe sanctions against the communist regime and that this is the last chance to resolve the nuclear standoff. In this way, the three countries may employ both pressure and incentives in collaboration. The South Korea-U.S. alliance is important, of course, but Seoul also needs to closely cooperate with China and deal with North Korea with a common proposal shared by the involved countries.

Having passed through a long tunnel of tension and confrontation, North Korea-U.S. relations are now approaching a critical crossroad. Now is time for the participants of the six-party talks to exercise their wisdom and reach a breakthrough for the nuclear issue in hopes of settling peace in this part of the world.


[Interview] Writing & Art Contest for N. Korean Newcomers
…I brought poison with me when I left for South Korea. I thought I’d rather kill myself than be repatriated to North Korea and live in constant pain….

This is part of an essay written by a North Korean defector who risked his life to escape his home country. Personal essays of the defectors contain graphic descriptions of desperate situations, where they hovered between life and death in the course of fleeing from North Korea. Those essays were brought to light during a writing and art contest for North Korean defectors at the Second Gyeonggi Provincial Office on November 23rd. A total of 227 North Korean newcomers nationwide participated in the contest, in which 288 pieces competed in three sections—an essay on personal experiences, poetry, and art. Let’s listen to Jang Dong-hyun, official of the Gyeonggi Provincial Office, the organizer of the event.

This contest is the first of its kind organized by a local government. North Korean defectors face many difficulties while adjusting to a new South Korean environment. Through this event, we wanted to encourage defectors with literary talent to showcase their abilities and to help them regain confidence.

The 30 award-winning works mostly portray the perilous experience of escaping North Korea, the expatriates’ nostalgia for their North Korean hometowns and families, and various episodes they experienced while resettling in South Korea. A personal essay, “A Detour into Another Life” received the first prize in the “essay” category, for its simple, yet heartbreaking depiction of a journey to South Korea by way of a third country. The essay vividly illustrates some precarious situations, including terrible and memorable moments like being caught by a solider while crossing the Laos border, and being deserted in Myanmar while traveling to Thailand by ship. In the “poetry” section, a poem entitled “River” earned the top prize. The poem includes realistic, impressive descriptions of a particular kind of rice cake enjoyed by North Korean residents and military shoes worn by North Korean farmers. Here’s the writer of the poem, who requested anonymity.

Thank you for awarding me the prize money of 1.5 million won and the Unification Minister Award. I really appreciate it, and I feel so happy. South Koreans still don’t know much about Northern defectors. Events like this will help North and South Koreans better understand one another and contribute to the future reunification of Korea. Countless North Korean people are crossing the China-North Korea border on the Tumen River in search of a better life. This is the main theme of my poem. I expressed the course of leaving home and crossing the river in the form of a poem.

In the “art” category, a work entitled “Halfway” received the best award. It illustrates national flags of South and North Korea using the Korean traditional paper of hanji. Many South Korean audiences seemed to be deeply impressed by the North Koreans’ ardent wish for unification, expressed in their poems and paintings. The Gyeonggi Provincial Office has compiled a collection of the award-winning works so many more people can appreciate them. The province will continue to offer programs designed to elicit the generous participation of North Korean defectors in the literary and art events.

A similar event will be held next year. We organized three competition sectors—essay, poetry and art—this year, but we’re considering expanding the categories. In reality, it isn’t easy for North Korean newcomers to participate in literary events like this. I think it’s necessary to provide support in various ways so they can gain access to cultural programs more easily. We’ll continue looking for appropriate cultural programs.