North Korea is accelerating its efforts to solidify the base for a third-generation power transfer. The nation reportedly created a holiday on the birthday of Kim Jong-un, North Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s third son and heir apparent. Daily NK, an online news outlet about North Korea, quoted sources inside North Korea as saying that the Workers’ Party had sent instructions to nationwide party organizations to commemorate Kim Jong-un’s birthday. But no official reports have been made about Kim’s birthday celebration so far. Jang Yong-seok, director of the Institute for Peace Affairs, says that the designation of Kim Jong-un’s birthday as a national holiday, if it proves to be true, has much to do with a scheme to ensure power succession in the communist nation.

In North Korea, particular days related to late North Korean founder Kim Il-sung, current leader Kim Jong-il and their family members were designated as special anniversaries. But those anniversaries, except the birthdays of the two leaders, are not national holidays. If Kim Jong-un’s birthday, January 8th, was actually designated as a national holiday, it means the nation recognizes the younger Kim as an heir to the nation’s top leader. But the reports haven’t been confirmed yet, so it’s too early to jump to that conclusion. Current leader Kim Jong-il’s birthday became a national holiday in 1975, a year after he was named the heir apparent. Given the example, the younger Kim’s birthday merits attention.

It is said Kim Jong-il’s third and youngest son, Kim Jong-un, turned 28 this year. North Korea watchers agree that among the three brothers, Jong-un is most qualified as a successor to his father. The senior Kim believes his youngest son, who takes after him in personality, is cut out for a competent leader to inherit his “military-first” politics. On the other hand, Kim’s second son Jong-chul is said to be rather diffident and suffer from a chronic disease. First son Jong-nam has long wandered in foreign countries, which is considered an unfavorable factor. Yet, some speculate that Jong-un’s public recognition is still low in North Korea because he is too young to have accumulated experience in politics and he has never worked for the Party.

It’s hard to say that Kim Jong-un has fully established his own power base. Let’s compare him with his father. After being selected as the successor to take over the communist leadership, Kim Jong-il began to build his independent power base. His status was fully acknowledged at the sixth party convention in October 1980 and he also underwent a stage in which he administered state affairs together with his father, Kim Il-sung. And the father-to-son power transition was made after Kim Il-sung died in July 1994. I imagine Kim Jong-un is now either in the “heir designation” stage or in the initial stage of building a power base rooted in the National Defense Commission. In contrast, the power base of his father was centered at the Party.

Many are now wondering exactly when North Korea will announce the power succession. Experts predict the nation will hold a party convention in 2012, the beginning year of building a “powerful North Korea,” to proclaim the leadership transition to Kim Jong-un. But some speculate such announcement could be made on October 10th this year on the occasion of the 65th anniversary of the foundation of the Workers’ Party, if the health conditions of current leader Kim Jong-il deteriorate suddenly. Even if the power transfer is officially declared, Kim Jong-un may encounter various political obstacles before ascending to the nation’s top post.

There are a number of political tasks or variables in the course of power succession. For example, Kim Jong-un may face political strife in the process of taking over power from his father. Kim Jong-il and his father Kim Il-sung faced similar troubles, too. Also, it would be necessary to reorganize the structure of the ruling elite while shaping a new power system. In that process, the next leader must take into account senior party members as well as key military officials and ministers. It is also very important to win support from ordinary citizens.

And many think it will be crucial for Kim Jong-un to build a close relation with his uncle Jang Seong-taek in order to solidify his status as a would-be head of state, considering that Kim’s power base is still weak. They speculate Kim Jong-il chose his brother-in-law, Jang, as Jong-un’s guardian in a bid to throw more weight behind his son. It was Jang himself who recommended Jong-un as a successor to Kim Jong-il. As a member of the National Defense Commission, Jang wields enormous power, while assisting the leader. For that reason, some doubt whether Jang will hand over power to Jong-un later without resistance. When it comes to the third-generation hereditary power succession this year, North Korea is expected to continue to reinforce the existing power structure and to promote Kim Jong-un as a prominent leader.

To build a stable basis for another power transfer, it’s most important for North Korea to secure support from the public, as the New Year’s editorial cited this as one of the nation’s key tasks this year. So, North Korea is expected to focus on improving the lives of its people this year. Outside the nation, Pyongyang will find it necessary to create a favorable environment to facilitate a smooth power transition. So the nation will likely seek to improve relations with foreign countries. North Korea proposed holding talks on a peace treaty on January 11th. I think the proposal is part of the nation’s efforts to create a friendly international mood and to find ways to provide justification for building a peace regime.

Domestic experts list Kim Jong-un as one of the political figures who deserve attention in 2010. North Korean leader Kim Jong-il selected his third son Jong-un as his successor in January last year. With the nation’s power transfer process entering a second year, we’ll have to watch how the situation may develop down the road.


[Interview] Online Class Teaches Standard Korean to N. Korean Defectors
One of the difficulties North Korean defectors face after arriving in South Korea is the language. When they call help-wanted ads, the employers just hang up the phone after hearing them speak with a North Korean accent. Sometimes, their employment is canceled during the interview just because of their speech. The defectors are deeply distress over their native North Korean accent. But here’s a piece of good news for the newcomers. An online class has been created to teach North Korean defectors the standard Korean language as spoken in South Korea. Let’s listen to Professor Lee Ho-young of the Linguistics Department of Seoul National University, who developed this Web site, called “Standard Pronunciation for Defectors.”

North Korean newcomers have a hard time adjusting to South Korean society due to language problems. Many defectors wanted to learn the standard South Korean pronunciation of the Korean language, and the National Institute of the Korean Language began to study this subject seriously last year. The institute decided to develop an educational program focused on pronunciation, and I applied for the job. This program is designed to help the defectors learn the standard Korean pronunciation in an easier and more interesting way.

For four months beginning August last year, the research team, led by Professor Lee, studied the pronunciation and speech patterns of 40 defectors from three different regions in North Korea. Professor Lee now explains how North Koreans differ from South Koreans in pronunciation.

Most conspicuously, many North Koreans cannot tell the vowel [eu] from [u]. Also, their pronunciation of [o] and [∧] is almost identical. North Koreans use [r] sound, as in ‘red,’ as the initial sound of many words, like ‘rodong’ and ‘ryeoja,’ while South Koreans pronounce the same words differently. I discovered North Koreans add or skip some consonants when uttering particular words. And they use starkly different intonation.

Users can log onto the home page of the National Institute of the Korean Language for the online class, which consists of three sections; consonants and vowels, pronunciation rules and intonation. Program organizers use flash animation to explain the differences between the North Korean dialect and the standard South Korean language to help the learners distinguish them easily. The learners can also record their own pronunciation and compare it with the standard South Korean pronunciation. Professor Lee continues to explain.

Qualified teachers should listen to the students say each word, point out incorrect pronunciation and explain how to articulate each sound correctly. It is the most effective way of teaching pronunciation. But this is impossible in the online class. So, the defectors record what they pronounce and compare it with the standard pronunciation. By doing so, they can tell between the differences and determine whether their language skills improve or not.

It is North Korean expatriates of course, who are most delighted at the news of the new language training program. A defector who participated in program development welcomes the move, noting that newcomers from North Korea find language training a prerequisite for resettling in the South. They do receive similar training at Hanawon, a rehabilitation center for North Korean defectors, but the training is far from enough. For that reason, the defector expresses hope that there will be many more pragmatic training programs. Professor Lee also says this online class is just a beginning.

This is the first-ever language training program for North Korean defectors. But I think online education has some limitations. No matter how excellent a textbook may be, it will prove ineffective unless the students are given feedback by teachers constantly. So the National Institute of the Korean Language is considering allowing teachers to directly instruct the defectors with this online teaching material. I imagine the learners have now reached a certain level in mastering correct Korean pronunciation. The next step is to learn foreign words. It’s necessary to create a new program to teach the defectors foreign words that South Koreans frequently use.