The United States has unveiled a new defense strategy, raising concerns in South Korea as to what security implications the new strategy will have on the Korean peninsula. On January 5th, U.S. President Barack Obama announced a new defense guidance, titled “Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense.” It is very unusual for the president to appear at a review session when a defense strategy was formally announced. In his speech, Obama called for a slimmed-down U.S. military and said that the U.S. would bolster its naval and air power while downsizing ground troops. Dr. Shin Beom-cheol, researcher of the Korea Institute of Defense Analyses, points out that the key of the reshaped defense strategy is a leaner military and the revision of the so-called “two-war strategy” that the U.S. has upheld for a long time.

The core of the new U.S. defense strategy, unveiled by Obama at the Pentagon, is a departure from its long-held “win-win strategy,” which calls for an ability to fight and win two major wars at the same time. Instead, the U.S. forces will fully deny a capable state’s aggressive objectives in one region, while denying the objectives of an opportunistic aggressor in a second region. The media describe it as the “win-spoil strategy,” in which the U.S. will focus on fighting one war and suppressing or “spoiling” the provocation of an opportunistic nation in the other war. The shift from the “win-win strategy” to the “win-spoil strategy” is a major change.

Attention now swings to how the prospective U.S. troop reduction will influence military collaboration between South Korea and the U.S. Washington hasn’t revealed the details about the size of the troop cuts yet, but experts predict that the U.S. Army and Marine Corps deployed in troubled regions throughout the world will shrink. Some speculate that Washington might cut the size of reinforcements to the Korean Peninsula in the event of a contingency and will also inevitably put U.S. Forces in Korea elsewhere in the world under the concept of “strategic flexibility.” But Dr. Shin has a different opinion.

The Pentagon has yet to announce the size of the troop reduction officially, but the media reported that the Army and Marine Corps may reduce personnel by about 100-thousand. I don’t think it’s a worrying level. The troop cuts, if realized, will reduce the U.S. armed forces to the state before the Iraq war broke out. The U.S. increased troops due to the war, and it now seeks to reduce them with the end of the war. Before the war, the U.S. ground troops had 480-thousand soldiers. Now, the military will trim the size of the Army from the current 570-thousand soldiers to 490-thousand. So, even after the troop reduction, the army will still have 10-thousand more soldiers than prior to the war. Therefore, I don’t think the size of U.S. Forces Korea will be reduced or its role will diminish.

It is also worth mentioning that Obama stressed the U.S. would strengthen its presence in the Asia-Pacific. The U.S. has been committed to the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq for the last decade. Why is it focusing on the Asia-Pacific region now?

Obama has consistently emphasized the importance of the Asia-Pacific since he took office, reflecting that the U.S. is increasingly aware of China’s emergence as an economic and military power. The U.S. recognizes China as a partner for cooperation but also holds it in check in military aspects. It is only natural that the U.S. shows greater interest in Asia at a time when China spends heavily to modernize its military and the economies in the region are becoming important. Obama’s remarks indicate his determination to pay more attention to the Asia-Pacific region after the U.S. withdraws troops from Iraq.

Meanwhile, the People’s Daily, the official newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party, denounced the U.S. on January 7th, calling it a troublemaker escalating tension in Asia. Rear Admiral Yang Yi at China’s National Defense University said in his commentary that the new U.S. defense strategy is aimed at China and Iran. He also pointed out that Asia has experienced greater confusion that threatens regional security since the U.S. began to stress the strategy to “return to Asia” in 2009. Some express concerns that the major strategic shift in the U.S. defense policy may increase tension on the Korean Peninsula to deepen confrontation between the two forces—South Korea and the U.S. versus North Korea and China. They also speculate that Washington’s abandonment of the two-war doctrine may boost North Korea’s confidence.

It appears that the U.S. has the same concerns. While announcing a new defense strategy, Obama said that the U.S. would cut defense spending but still continue to spend more money on its armed forces than a combined defense budget of 10 countries with the largest defense expenditure, next to the U.S. He also stressed the importance of research and development in the defense area. It would be too much to say that the budget cut and the troop reduction will weaken national defense of the U.S. On the contrary, I think it will be strengthened steadfastly. So, it is unlikely that North Korea will launch a provocation based on miscalculation. North Korea will make its own analyses of the new U.S. defense strategy to cope with the situation.

Amid the ever-changing security environment in and around the Korean Peninsula, experts call for South Korea to make sincere efforts to review the nation’s overall defense posture and examine risk factors that could threaten national security. In particular, with the operational wartime control scheduled to be transferred from the U.S. to South Korea in December 2015, Seoul needs to enhance trust in the South Korea-U.S. alliance.

South Korea will establish a system of Seoul-led military preparedness against North Korea in 2015. Even in that case, the U.S. agreed to provide active support to South Korea. Some may doubt that the U.S. will actually do so in a state of emergency. But the U.S. finds the Asia-Pacific region increasingly important, as seen in its new defense guidance. For the U.S., there is no reason to give up the Korean Peninsula easily. Quite the opposite, the U.S. may support South Korea more actively, as the Korean Peninsula assumes more and more strategic importance. Of course, the scenario is based on the premise that South Korea-U.S. relations will proceed smoothly.

Also, Dr. Shin says South Korea needs to enhance its own defense capabilities for the sake of peace and stability in the region.

South Korea should beef up its own capabilities of reconnaissance and surveillance as well as precision strike. That is why the nation has pushed for military reform consistently. I think Seoul must spur the military reform in a more muscular fashion. In that process, it should improve unmanned surveillance vehicles and other surveillance abilities.

Following the announcement of the new U.S. defense strategy, there have been various projections and concerns about diplomacy on the Korean Peninsula. South Korea and the U.S. should come up with a clearer and more detailed response plan in order to maintain regional peace and security. Also, it is urgent for Seoul to build up its own military strength in tandem.


[Interview] Seasonal School for N. Korean Teenage Defectors
Students are eager to sing a song designed to learn difficult Chinese characters. A group of teenage North Korean defectors is attending the Hangyeore Seasonal School, which is offered by the Citizens Alliance for North Korean Human Rights during summer and winter vacations every year. A total of 35 North Korean students participated in the latest two-week session that started on January 2 at the Education Center for Unification in Suyu-dong, northern Seoul. Han Da-eun, the assistant administrator of the Seoul-based human rights group, says that the program was focused on helping the students adjust to South Korean life and receive supplementary lessons of the subjects that they found challenging at school.

This is the 22nd session offered by the Hangyeore Seasonal School. The students from North Korea lag behind their South Korean counterparts by two or three years in terms of learning abilities. The education system here in South Korea is different from that of North Korea, and they had to stop studying in the process of defecting from the North. Usually, they have a hard time overcoming the difficulties. More seriously, many of them lack confidence just because they came from North Korea. During this winter session, students received intensive instruction in subjects they found difficult to master, such as math and English. If students don’t know the Korean alphabet of Hangeul or the English alphabet, they are taught how to read and write then. Also, we offer programs tailored to each student.

The latest session offered tailored programs, in consideration of the level and characteristics of individual students. They were also taught Chinese characters and Korean history as well as major subjects like the Korean language, English and math. For those who found it difficult to catch up with their studies, volunteer teachers offered them one-on-one education to help them strengthen their weak points in a more effective way. In addition, the students participated in special sessions such as theatrical performance, designed to help them restore their self-confidence and emotional stability. They also took part in a camping program for South and North Korean teenagers and the “Save the Children” program to engage in the volunteer work of knitting hats to help children in Africa. What grabbed the students’ attention the most was an education program about democracy.

The students from North Korea know little about capitalism or democracy. In this program, the participants create their own village, elect their representative, make rules and express their opinions. In doing so, they learn and experience what it feels like to become democratic citizens.

The students also participated in the rare event of the memorial service for the late Czech President Vaclav Havel, who had engaged in activities committed to improving the North Korean human rights situation. In fact, all the various interesting programs were the result of the heartfelt efforts of volunteers, including college students and instructors from local schools. They made strenuous efforts to develop new and special programs for North Korean students. Some teachers stayed in the camp with the students to help them with their studies and special activities. They spent two weeks at the camp without any reward or pay, but they say the volunteer work is definitely worthwhile. But it is the students themselves who are most satisfied with the seasonal school. They say they were able to ease through the difficulties they experienced in South Korea and regain self-confidence. A student talks about how she felt about the program.

Here, I got rid of stress. The friends are comfortable to be with. While staying together with them for two weeks, I made many friends.

After completing the two-week program, the students smiled brightly with pleasure. We hope the youngsters will grow up healthily and happily to become decent citizens and competent leaders of Korea.