The Economist says North Korea’s successful transition of power depends on whether heir-apparent Kim Jong-un can gain real influence over the Korean Workers’ Party and the army.

The British economic weekly said in an article titled, “North Korea’s Succession,” that the difficulty Kim Jong-un would face if he were anointed dictator-in-waiting during a large gathering of the Korean Workers’ Party next week is that he is too young to have real influence over the two institutions that matter, the party and the army. The report cited that on Tuesday, the North’s ruling party is due to assemble for its first large gathering in 30 years.

The report also said that a successful transition of power would therefore depend on those around Kim Jong-un, and especially on Chang Sung-taek who is Kim Jong-il’s brother-in-law and the second most powerful man in the country.

The report added that whether North Korea can manage a successful transition depends not only on events inside the country, but also on China, as without its help the North would quickly collapse.